Evaluated policy scenarios

The AgriPoliS simulations were run over a 13-year period from 2001 to 2013 (the end of the current EU programming period). We considered three policy scenarios in the EU15.

  • • A benchmark scenario which represents continuation of the Agenda 2000 framework with coupled payments beyond 2004 (referred to as AGENDA).
  • • The actual 2003 CAP reform, including partially decoupled payments, as implemented or phased in each modelled region starting in 2005 (REFORM).
  • • A bond scheme where the obligation to keep land in good agricultural and environmental condition (GAEC) in the REFORM scenario is removed (BOND). In this scenario, the SPS for each farm is not distributed as a payment per hectare of managed land, but goes directly to the farmer. In other words, the farmer can produce or choose to leave the sector and still receive support.

New member states (EU10)

Due to space restrictions, we do not present detailed results for the NMS in this paper. Since these countries went from pre-accession policies directly into decoupled CAP payments, they require additional clarification. Briefly, it was evident from AgriPoliS results that the impact of accession dominates the effect of decoupling. However, results vary between the three countries analysed. In the Czech Republic and Slovakia, EU accession meant significantly higher payments to agriculture, while in Lithuania payments were comparably high before accession. Consequently, the introduction of CAP payments has a negligible impact on structural change in Lithuania, while structural change slows down considerably in Czech Republic and Slovakia. For analysis and results for the NMS, we refer the reader to the following IDEMA deliverables: Czech Republic (Jelinek et al., 2007), Lithuania (Stonkute et al., 2007) and Slovakia (Blaas et al., 2007).

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