Results

In order to simplify analysis, the results presented here are those salient to assessing the key impacts of partial decoupling as highlighted above. Results are presented in terms of the impact of all countries fully decoupling on prices, crop areas and livestock numbers, levels of production and welfare for the European Union as a whole, and at the member state level.

Prices

Table 2.2 highlights the projected changes in EU price under various unilateral decoupling scenarios (Spain only, France only, other countries that have maintained coupled payments only) and if all payments were decoupled across the whole of the European Union. Given how the decoupling has been implemented, it is not surprising that the model predicts that the sector most affected is the beef sector, where prices are projected to rise by over 5% if all countries decouple. The role of France in the EU market is highlighted by the fact that if they unilaterally decoupled, prices for beef are projected to be just under 2.5% higher.

Table 2.2. Change in prices under decoupling scenarios

Percentage change from baseline scenario in 2013

Spain

only

France

only

Other

countries

All fully decoupling

Soft wheat

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.5

Barley

-0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

Rape seed

0.0

0.7

0.0

0.7

Sunflower seed

0.0

1.1

0.2

1.4

Soya seed

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.2

Beef

1.5

2.4

1.4

5.4

Pork meat

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Sheep and goat meat

0.6

0.2

0.1

1.0

Poultry meat

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

 
Source
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