The political economy of clean energy transitions

I The Political Economy of Clean Energy TransitionsIntroduction and SynthesisMOTIVATIONA NEW ERATECHNOLOGY DRIVERSCHALLENGES IN DEVELOPING VERSUS DEVELOPED ECONOMIESTHIS BOOKLOOKING FORWARDREFERENCESThe History and Politics of Energy Transitions. Comparing Contested Views and Finding Common GroundINTRODUCTIONONE SIDE: ENERGY TRANSITIONS ARE LONG, PROTRACTED AFFAIRSHistory Shows Major Transitions Taking Decades to CenturiesAnalysts Need to Focus on the Big Picture‘Path Dependency’ and ‘Lock-In’ Make Future Transitions DifficultTHE OTHER SIDE: ENERGY TRANSITIONS CAN HAPPEN QUICKLYHistory Shows Speedy Transitions in Energy End-Use DevicesFast Transitions in National Energy Supply Have OccurredFuture Energy Transitions Can Be ExpeditedCONCLUSIONS: ENERGY TRANSITIONS ARE PATH DEPENDENT AND CUMULATIVEREFERENCESII Climate PolicyCarbon Pricing under Political Constraints. Insights for Accelerating Clean Energy TransitionsINTRODUCTIONCARBON PRICING IN THEORY AND PRACTICEMODEL AND SCENARIO IMPLEMENTATIONModel FormulationPolitical Economy Constraint Scenarios and Analytical SolutionsRESULTSDirect Constraint on the CO2 PriceConstraint on Final Energy Price IncreasesConstraints on Net Energy Consumer and Fossil Producer Surplus LossDisposition of WelfareCONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND RESEARCHREFERENCESBorder Adjustment Mechanisms. Elements for Economic, Legal, and Political AnalysisINTRODUCTIONBCA IMPLEMENTATIONWhich Regulating Instrument(s)?How to Evaluate the Carbon Content of Imported Products?Which Countries Would Be Affected?Which Flows?BCAS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE LAWChallenging a BCA under the GATT Principle of Non-DiscriminationResorting to the GATT General Exceptions Regarding Health and Environment ProtectionTHE POLITICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF BCAS IN THE CONTEXT OF ENERGY TRANSITIONEnergy Transition, BCAs, and Developing EconomiesBCAs, an Available Tool to Reshape the WorldCONCLUSIONREFERENCESSupport Policies for Renewables: Instrument Choice and Instrument Change from a Public Choice PerspectiveTHE ENERGY TRANSITION AS A POLITICAL CHALLENGESUPPORT FOR RENEWABLES AS A SOLUTION TO CRUCIAL CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY CHALLENGESThe Problem of Instrument ChoiceGermany’s Support Policies for RenewablesTHE LONG-RUN PERSPECTIVE: HOW TO INTEGRATE RENEWABLES IN ENERGY MARKETS?The Problem of Instrument ChangeAdapting Germany’s Support Policies for RenewablesSystemic ChallengesCONCLUSIONREFERENCESIII Institutions and GovernanceVarieties of Clean Energy Transitions in Europe. Political-Economic Foundations of Onshore and Offshore Wind DevelopmentINTRODUCTIONTHEORETICAL FRAMEWORKEMPIRICAL ANALYSISOnshore WindCompound CME (Germany)Simple LME (UK)Simple CMEs (Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands)Offshore WindCompound CME (Germany)Simple LME (UK)Simple CMEs (Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands)CONCLUSIONSREFERENCESThe Political Economy of Energy InnovationINTRODUCTIONMEASURING ENERGY INNOVATION TRENDSEMPIRICAL MODEL AND RESEARCH FRAMEWORKEmpirical ModelResearch HypothesesRESULTSRole of Environmental Policy StringencyRole of Good GovernanceRole of Political OrientationRole of Resource Distribution, Market-Size Effect, and LobbyingRole of Other FactorsCONCLUSIONREFERENCESIs Feed-In-Tariff Policy Effective for Increasing Deployment of Renewable Energy in Indonesia?INTRODUCTIONA BRIEF REVIEW OF THE FEED-IN-TARIFF POLICYWhat is FIT Policy?Examples of FIT ImplementationBarriers to FIT ImplementationFIT Policy in IndonesiaDATA ACQUISITIONStudy LocationQuantitative DataQualitative DataANALYSISEffectiveness of FIT PolicyProcedure for Obtaining a Renewable Energy LicenceObstacles to Deployment of Renewable EnergyIncoherent Regulations between Related InstitutionsLong Process of Electricity PurchasingProblems with Community and Land AcquisitionMiscellaneous: Unanticipated Impacts of FIT PolicyCONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONSConclusionRecommendationSuggestions for Further ResearchREFERENCESDo Political Economy Factors Matter in Explaining the Increase in the Production of Bioenergy?INTRODUCTIONANALYTICAL FRAMEWORKA Simple Theoretical ModelEconometric ModelData DescriptionDETERMINANTS OF THE PRODUCTION OF BIOENERGYBioenergy and Political Economy Factors: Naive EvidenceResults of Tobit Model with Fixed EffectsGovernance QualityOther EnergyMacroeconomic PoliciesMarket SizeAgricultural FactorsEstimation Results without the United States and BrazilDecision to Produce Bioenergy: Results of Random Effects Probit ModelLong-Run Analysis: Impact of Legal Origins on Bioenergy ProductionSUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONSREFERENCESUnderstanding Indicator Choice for the Assessment of RD&D Financing of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies. Lessons from the Nordic CountriesINTRODUCTIONRESEARCH DESIGN: THE INDICATOR-BASED EVALUATION FRAMEWORKConceptualization of Indicator-Based RD&D Policy EvaluationIndicators Used in the Evaluation of LCET Support PolicyKey Indicators in the Context of Public RD&D Financing of LCET in the Nordic CountriesAssessment of the Indicator-Based MethodANALYSIS: INDICATORS FOR PUBLIC RD&D FINANCING OF LCET IN THE NORDIC COUNTRIESRD&D SpendingAcceptanceEase of MonitoringRobustnessCO2 EmissionsAcceptanceEase of MonitoringRobustnessPatentsAcceptanceEase of MonitoringRobustnessTurnover, Exports, JobsAcceptanceEase of MonitoringRobustnessReturn on Investment (ROI)AcceptanceEase of MonitoringRobustnessThe Ratio of Public and Private RD&D FinancingAcceptanceEase of MonitoringRobustnessEFFECTS OF INDICATOR CHOICE: POTENTIAL BIASES AND THEIR POLICY IMPLICATIONSA Focus on Short-Term Economic Performance and ROIStressing the Additionality of FinancingDisregarding DecarbonizationCONCLUDING REMARKSREFERENCESAn Enquiry into the Political Economy of the Global Clean Energy Transition Policies and Nigeria’s Federal and State Governments’ Fiscal PoliciesINTRODUCTIONLITERATURE REVIEWConceptual IssuesConcept of Climate ChangeClimate Change MitigationTheories of Climate ChangeGlobal Political and Policy Issues on Climate Change MitigationGlobal Political Economy of Climate Change MitigationConflicts between National Policies and Global PoliciesEmpirical StudiesFINDINGSNigeria’s Fiscal Policy Stance and Current Efforts towards Clean Energy TransitionPossible Factors of the Observed Efforts towards Clean Energy Transition in NigeriaFiscal Policy Implications of Nigeria’s Delayed Transition While Other Economies Transition to Clean EnergyCONCLUSIONREFERENCESIV Actors and InterestsGoverning Clean Energy Transitions in China and IndiaINTRODUCTIONTHEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGSCHINADriversShift towards Promoting RET PolicySocietal Pressures: PollutionIncreasing Institutional CapacityBarriersInsufficient Grid CapacityVested InterestsAdministrative HierarchyCentral vs Local LevelINDIADriversAmbitionPollution, Energy Access, and Regional VariationBarriersDiscomsLand RightsDISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONREFERENCESTowards a Political Economy Framework for Wind Power. Does China Break the Mould?INTRODUCTIONBACKGROUND: WHY DEVELOP A POLITICAL ECONOMY FRAMEWORK FOR WINDPOLITICAL ECONOMY FRAMEWORK FOR WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT AND INTEGRATIONPolitical InstitutionsGovernance of Power Systems: Dimensions of DiversityEconomic InstitutionsIndustry Structure: Traditional and ‘Standard’ Restructuring ModelsActors and Interests and Wind EnergyPolitical InstitutionsEconomic InstitutionsCHINA CASE STUDYPlanning and Project Approval of Wind FarmsGenerator Cost RecoverySupport Mechanisms and DispatchFixed-Cost RecoveryOperating Cost RecoveryCost Premium RecoveryBalancing Area CoordinationStructure of China’s Grid OperationsCONCLUSIONREFERENCESThe Social Shaping of Nuclear Energy Technology in South AfricaINTRODUCTIONSOCIAL SHAPING OF NUCLEAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ROLE OF DISCOURSE COALITIONSNUCLEAR POWER POLITICS IN SOUTH AFRICADiscourse Coalitions in Support and Opposition of the Nuclear Build ProgrammeThe Coalition of SupportersThe Coalition of OpponentsPolitical Discourse Shaping South Africa’s Nuclear Technology DecisionCostOpposition to Political AuthorityEconomic InterventionismJob Creation and SkillsSafetyEnergy Security, Renewable Energy, and ‘Baseload’Secrecy, Transparency, and CorruptionInternational Prestige and Geopolitical DimensionsCONCLUSIONREFERENCESEuropean Energy Security. Challenges and Green OpportunitiesINTRODUCTIONTHE EFFECTS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT ON ENERGY SECURITYNatural Gas and the Interplay with Renewables and the EnvironmentRenewable Energy DevelopmentMIDDLE EAST CHALLENGES AND ENERGY BALANCE IN EUROPEEnergy Policy in EuropeThe Monopolized Energy Market and the Necessity of Including New SuppliersIMPORT SOURCES AND POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVES FOR EUROPEImport Sources for EuropeRenewable Energy Technologies as Alternative SourcesA NEW EUROPEAN POLICY FRAMEWORKSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONREFERENCESV IncumbencyIncumbency and the Legal Configuration of Hydrocarbon InfrastructureINTRODUCTIONSTRATEGIC RENT-SEEKING IN WISCONSINTHE BIOPHYSICAL APPROACH AND HYDROCARBON’S LEGAL INFRASTRUCTURETHREE CONTRADICTIONS AND THE CONFIGURING LEGAL APPARATUSEfficiency Logics and TerritoryDecommodification and JurisdictionGuaranteeing and Disciplining CapitalCONCLUSION: RENTS, LAW, AND MAKING MARKETS FOR RENEWABLESREFERENCESlobal Trends in the Political Economy of Smart GridsINTRODUCTIONTHE HISTORY OF ‘SMART GRID’ TERMINOLOGYDefining Smart GridsReal-Time Management and ControlACTOR PERSPECTIVES ON SMART GRIDSThe Integrated UtilityThe Distribution Service OperatorsRetailersNew Entities: Aggregators and Energy Service CompaniesConsumersPOLICY PERSPECTIVES ON SMART GRIDSSources for Socio-Political TensionsThe Impact of Industry StructuresThe Impact of the Regulatory ModelThe Impact of Energy PolicyThe United States’ ‘Smart’: Reliability of SupplyEurope’s ‘Smart’: Affordability and Sustainability in the Liberalized SectorChina’s ‘Smart’: Dealing with a Surge in Electricity DemandCONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONSREFERENCESFalling Oil Prices and Sustainable Energy Transition. Towards a Multilateral Agreement on Fossil-Fuel SubsidiesINTRODUCTIONUNDERSTANDING FOSSIL-FUEL SUBSIDIESFOSSIL-FUEL SUBSIDIES AND ENERGY TRANSITION: THE CASE FOR REFORMFALLING OIL PRICES AND FOSSIL-FUEL SUBSIDIES: FUEL FOR REFORMINTERGOVERNMENTAL INITIATIVES TO PHASE OUT FOSSIL-FUEL SUBSIDIESTOWARDS A MULTILATERAL AGREEMENT ON FOSSIL-FUEL SUBSIDIESThe Need for a Multilateral Legal RegimeKey Issues and Challenges AheadDefining Fossil-Fuel SubsidiesEnhancing TransparencyClear and Enforceable CommitmentsEnsuring Wide ParticipationThe Quest for an Institutional Home: In Whose Court Is the Ball?TheUNFCCCIs the Ball in the WTO’s Court?CONCLUSIONREFERENCESVI Sector ReformPost-Apartheid Electricity Policy and the Emergence of South Africa’s Renewable Energy SectorINTRODUCTIONTHE MINERALS-ENERGY COMPLEX AND ELECTRICITY CRISISGOVERNING ESKOMELECTRICITY POLICYTHE INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN FOR ELECTRICITYRENEWABLE ENERGY PROCUREMENTCHALLENGES FOR A NEW INDUSTRYCONCLUSIONREFERENCESPolitical Economy of Nigerian Power Sector ReformTHE CONTEXTKEY CHALLENGES FACING THE POWER SECTOR REFORMPoor Transmission NetworkInadequate FundingPolicy ChallengeInadequate Gas SupplyASSESSMENT OF THE POWER SECTOR REFORMProcess Infractions in the Management of the Privatization ProcessPolitical InterferenceCorruptionWeak Regulatory, Institutional, and Legal FrameworkPolicy Inconsistencies and Regulatory UncertaintyElectricity TariffWAY FORWARDREFERENCESClimate Change Policy and Power Sector Reform in Mexico under the Golden Age of GasINTRODUCTION: CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY TRANSITION, AND ENERGY REFORMENERGY TRANSITION AND CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA AS A POLITICAL NECESSITY (2008-12)Race between Demand and Energy ReformsClimate Change in the Context of Energy PoliticsClimate Change: Much Ado about NothingENERGY REFORM AND CLIMATE POLICIES BY LEGAL FIAT (2012-15)Low Energy Prices: Political Priority of Energy ReformPolitical Effects of Natural Gas Price CyclesClimate Change by Legal FiatWalking Half-Way on Clean Energy DeploymentTHE WAY FORWARD AND THE CHALLENGE FOR POLITICAL COHERENCEREFERENCESSell the Oil Deposits! A Financial Proposal to Keep the Oil Underground in the Yasuni National Park, EcuadorINTRODUCTIONFEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF THE ITT INITIATIVEPrice DiscountingPermanenceAdditionalityLeakageUncertaintyFinancial Valuation of the ITT InitiativeValuation of Oil Extraction in the ITT BlockValuation of the YGCs RevenueA NEW YASUNI-ITT INITIATIVEThe ModelThe YNP in the Market of DepositsFinancial Issues and ImplicationsDISCUSSIONCONCLUSIONREFERENCESVII Social InclusionIntegrating Clean Energy Use in National Poverty Reduction Strategies. Opportunities and Challenges in Rwanda’s Girinka ProgrammeINTRODUCTIONRWANDA: BACKGROUND INFORMATIONHousehold Energy Use in RwandaDomestic Energy Policy in RwandaGIRINKA AND DOMESTIC BIOGAS USE IN RWANDABiogas Use among the Rural Poor in RwandaBiogas Use among Girinka Beneficiaries in Rwanda: An AnalysisIMPLICATIONS FOR A TRANSITION TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMYCONCLUSIONREFERENCESRenewable Energy in the Brazilian Amazon. The Drivers of Political Economy and ClimateINTRODUCTIONBACKGROUNDEnergy Development in the AmazonEnergy Development in the Context of Climate ChangeDATA AND METHODSPOLITICAL ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF AMAZONIAN RENEWABLE ENERGYLocal Socioeconomic Development: Communities and Social Movement OrganizationsBrazilian Governmental and Private InterestsInternational Actors and Financial InterestsIMPLICATIONS FOR THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITIONREFERENCESThe Political Economy of Household Thermal Energy Choices in Developing Countries. Comparing the LPG Sectors in Indonesia and South AfricaINTRODUCTIONPolitical Economy AnalysisINDONESIAGroups, Interests, and IncentivesInstitutionsValues and IdeasSOUTH AFRICAGroup, Interests, and IncentivesInstitutionsValues and IdeasCONCLUDING ANALYSISState Power and ControlStability and the Politics of DiscontentAligning Interests and ObjectivesREFERENCESVIII Regional DynamicsThe Linkages of Energy, Water, and Land Use in Southeast Asia. Challenges and Opportunities for the Mekong RegionINTRODUCTIONOVERVIEW OF THE MRWater Resources in the MREnergy Demand and Hydropower Plants in the MRREGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTEGRATION, AND CHALLENGESRegional Development and IntegrationHydropower Projects in the MRB and Their ImpactChallenges and Opportunities in the MRTHE ROLE OF ISSUE LINKAGES IN MANAGING THE MRA Basic FrameworkIndependent Games in the First StageA Water GameA Trade GameLinked Game in the Second StagePOLICY IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUDING REMARKSREFERENCESThe Political Economy of Clean Energy Transitions at Sub-National Level. Understanding the Role of International Climate Regimes in Energy Policy in Two Brazilian StatesINTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGYNATIONAL AND SUB-NATIONAL POLICIES FOR CLEAN ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGEThe Case of Rio Grande do SulThe Case of BahiaCDM Impacts on Domestic Climate and Energy PoliciesCDM Building Technological CapabilitiesLocal Planning for SustainabilityCONCLUSIONSMoving Ahead: Lessons from the Paris AgreementREFERENCESImplementing EU Renewable Energy Policy at the Subnational Level. Navigating between Conflicting InterestsINTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGYTWO REGIONS WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND GROWING TENSIONSTwo Regions with High PotentialTwo Regions Where Tensions Are Developing in the Context of a Transition to Clean EnergyMarket Acceptance in AquitaineIn Brandenburg, Unequally Shared Profits Affect Community AcceptanceADDRESSING SHORTCOMINGS OF THE MULTI-LEVEL GOVERNANCE SCHEMESGovernance Challenges at the Regional LevelThe Challenges of Multi-Level Governance: Is the National Government the Leading Actor?CONCLUSIONREFERENCESIX Moving ForwardMoving ForwardSTAGES OF MITIGATION POLICYRESEARCH FRONTIERSFrontier I: Enabling Environments for Clean Energy InnovationFrontier II: Big Think: Framing Resiliency PlanningFrontier III: From Individual Actions to Global ImpactsFrontier IV: Informing Decision-MakingFINAL WORDSREFERENCES
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