Energy Demand and Hydropower Plants in the MR

The MR is endowed with abundant resources that have power generation potential, such as hydropower, natural gas, and coal. However, many countries in the region face difficulties in accessing financial resources and technologies to exploit the energy potential of these resources. Most of the oil and gas for potential development is located in the territorial waters of Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam, whereas coal is in Yunnan province of China (ADB 2013). Owing to the regional diversity in economic development and rise in population, growth in primary energy demand differs by nations (Table 26.3).

As shown in Table 26.3, China has a highest potential for reducing energy demand compared with any other nations in the MR: its annual growth rate reduces from 2.3 per cent in a BAU case to 1.4 per cent in the alternative case. Within the MR, it must be recognized that hydropower is only one of a number of purposes for which water is diverted or stored. Houba, Pham Do, and Zhu (2013) report that hydropower generation in the LMB takes place in the tributaries and produces only 2 per cent of the total economic value of the LMB. This low value reflects the undeveloped hydropower potential. To date, China is the only country to have built dams on the Mekong mainstream.

Table 26.3. Energy demand in business-as-usual and alternative scenarios

Note: Mtoe, million tonnes of oil equivalent. Source: Based on ADB (2013).

future water and energy resources is change in land use. Different drivers cause different changes in land use. The impact that land-use changes can have on water resources is large, but quantifying these impacts presents many challenges. According to Rowcroft (2008), land-use changes are multifaceted and mainly caused by prices of agricultural and forest products. To maintain the MR as an important food production area with irrigation farmland, aquatic agriculture, and pasture, governments in the region have undertaken land reforms and put limits on shifting cultivation for conservation since 1980. However, rapid land-use change has occurred in the region since 2000.

The MRC Strategic Environmental Assessment report identifies expanding irrigation and loss of forest, farmland, and aquatic resource as the main consequences of mainstream dams (ICEM 2010). The loss of land is a direct impact of hydropower projects (MRC 2010) through construction of reservoirs, access roads, and transportations. According to Smajgl and Ward (2013), there are six national developments that would significantly influence land-use change in the MR till 2050: (i) expansion of mainstream dams, (ii) water diversion, (iii) rise in sea level, (iv) adaptation strategies in the Mekong delta, (v) expansion of rubber plantations, and (vi) transnational transport infrastructure (in particular, railway projects linking Kunming to Cambodia).

Having provided an assessment of the impacts of these developments related changes in land use, Xing (2013) shows that during 2000-8 farmland increased in Yunnan (61.3 per cent) and Laos (42.5 per cent) whereas pasture increased in Cambodia (61.3 per cent) but decreased in Yunnan (21.3 per cent). In addition, it is expected that 22,692.42 km² of forest will be converted to commercial plantations and mainstream dams may submerge 119.66 km² of riverbank gardens. Total area of land-use change is predicted to be 34,068.71 km² (see Xing 2013: table 6.10).