National and International Projections for Racial and Ethnic Composition

General US Patterns

The U.S. Census Bureau (BOC) 2014 projected life expectancy (Table, 2014) at birth for both sexes continues to increase from 2015 at 70.4 years of age to 85.6 years of age in 2060. There are, however, differences when this is considered by racial identity. While those identified as non-Hispanic White had a life expectancy of 80 years in 2015, projections note increased life expectancy of 82.2 years in 2030, and 84.8

years in 2040. Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander and Hispanics have similar life expectancy to non-Hispanic Whites at birth; however, Blacks have lower projected life expectancy noting 76.1 years in 2015 and projections of 78.8 years in 2030 and 80.5 years in 2040. Projections of life expectancy at age 65 and 85 in 2012 and 2050 differ consistently by sex and less predictably by race. The BOC notes that the 2012 male life expectancy at age 65 for non-Hispanic Whites, Asians, and Pacific Islanders compared to Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Blacks, American Indian or Alaska Native was 18.1 vs. 19.5 and 16.3 years, respectively. Therefore, the most significant difference in lower life expectancy occurs among non-Hispanic Blacks, American Indian, and Alaska Native 65-year-old males. Projections become more similar after age 85 as there is little difference between 6, 7.1, and 6.3 years, respectively projected [7]. Unlike projection for younger ages in the United States, the majority of the older population will continue to be non-Hispanic White. While no single group will make up a majority, older adults collectively not designated as nonHispanic White are expected to become a majority by 2043. [BOC Projections 2012; 7]. “Of those aged 65 and older in 2060, 56.0 % are expected to be non-Hispanic White, 21.2 % Hispanic and 12.5 % non-Hispanic black” [BOC Projections 2012; ] The conclusion from these aforementioned projections is that the country will be more racially and ethnically diverse (Fig. 3.1). Overall, the projections note a steady growth of the non-Hispanic White population that will peak in 2024 at 199.6 mil-

Population by race and Hispanic origin [20] lion

Fig. 3.1 Population by race and Hispanic origin [20] lion. However, unlike other groups, a marked 20.6 million decline is expected between 2024 and 2060 (BOC Projections 2012). American Indian and Alaskan Native populations are among some of the smallest populations in the United States. Despite their low overall population, their older population is expected to increase dramatically from 3.9 million at present to 6.3 million in 2060. The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population has similar growth projections from 706,000 to 1.4 million (BOC Projections 2012).

Some of the greatest gains in population will be among Hispanics, Asians, and those self-identifying as two or more races (e.g., Biracial). The population of Hispanics will see the greatest increase when “nearly one in three U.S. residents will be Hispanic” and specifc population forecasts predict 128.8 million in 2060 from 53.3 million in 2012. The Asian population also is projected to have formidable although more modest increases with a doubling of population of, from 15.9 million in 2012 to 34.4 million in 2060 (BOC Projections 2012). A much more modest change is expected in African American or Black populations with a very small change in overall percentage from13.1 % in 2012 to 14.7 % in 2060.

 
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