Drought and Water Crises: Integrating Science, Management, and Policy

Section I OverviewDrought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context IntroductionDrought as Hazard: Concepts, Definition, and TypesTypes of DroughtCharacterizing Drought and Its SeverityDrought as Disaster: The Social and Political ContextThe Challenge of Drought Early WarningThe Three-Pillar Approach to Drought Risk ManagementSummary and ConclusionReferencesSection II Drought Risk Reduction: Shifting the Paradigm from Managing Disasters to Managing RiskThe High-level Meeting on National Drought Policy: A Summary of Outcomes IntroductionGoals of the National Drought PoliciesOrganization of HMNDPDrought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Information SystemsDrought Prediction and PredictabilityDrought Vulnerability, Impact Assessment, Drought Preparedness, and MitigationPlanning for Appropriate Response and Relief within the Framework of National Drought PolicyConstructing a Framework for National Drought Policy: The Way ForwardMain Outcomes of the High-level Segment of HMNDPFinal Declaration of HMNDPSummary and ConclusionsReferencesIntegrated Drought Management Initiatives IntroductionEarly Outputs of Global Collaboration—The Approach of the Integrated Drought Management ProgrammeUN-Water Initiative on Capacity Development to Support National Drought Management PoliciesRegional and National Application of OutputsCentral and Eastern EuropeHorn of AfricaConclusionsReferencesNational Drought Management Policy Guidelines: A Template for Action IntroductionDrought Policy and Preparedness: Setting the StageDrought Policy: Characteristics and the Way ForwardCOMMUNITY-BASED RESILIENCE ANALYSIS (COBRA) IN KENYA AND UGANDADROUGHT MITIGATIONNational Drought Management Policy: A ProcessStep 1: Appoint a National Drought CommissionStep 2: State or Define the Goals and Objectives of a Risk-Based National Drought Management PolicyStep 3: Seek Stakeholder Participation; Define and Resolve Conflicts between Key Water Use Sectors, Considering also Transboundary ImplicationsStep 4: Inventory Data and Financial Resources Available and Identify Groups at RiskStep 5: Prepare/Write the Key Tenets of a National Drought Management Policy and Preparedness Plans, Including the Following Elements: Monitoring, Early Warning, and Prediction; Risk and Impact Assessment; and Mitigation and ResponseMonitoring, Early Warning, and Information Delivery CommitteeRisk Assessment CommitteeMitigation and Response CommitteeWriting the Mitigation PlanStep 6: Identify Research Needs and Fill Institutional GapsStep 7: Integrate Science and Policy Aspects of Drought ManagementStep 8: Publicize the National Drought Management Policy and Preparedness Plans and Build Public Awareness and ConsensusStep 9: Develop Education Programs for All Age and Population GroupsStep 10: Evaluate and Revise National Drought Management Policy and Supporting Preparedness PlansOngoing EvaluationPost-Drought EvaluationSummary and ConclusionReferencesBenefits of Action and Costs of Inaction: Drought Mitigation and Preparedness—A Literature Review IntroductionBenefits of Action versus Costs of Inaction: Concepts and MethodologiesMethodologies for Drought Impact AssessmentGlobal and Local Drought Costs EvaluationsAction against Drought: Risk Management versus Crisis ManagementFrom Crisis Management to Risk Management: Obstacles and OpportunitiesDrivers of Ex Ante and Ex Post Action against DroughtCobenefits of Drought Risk Management StrategiesConclusions and Next StepsReferencesSection III Advances in Tools for Drought Prediction, Early Warning, Decision Support, and ManagementResearch to Advance Drought Monitoring and Prediction CapabilitiesIntroductionResearch to Improve Drought MonitoringLand Surface Modeling and IndicesRemotely Sensed Observational AnalysesAdvancing Drought Prediction CapabilitiesCurrent Operational and Experimental Prediction CapabilitiesDrought Mechanisms and PredictabilityDrought PredictionUnderstanding Drought PredictabilityReferencesDrought Monitoring and Early Warning: Twenty-First Century Advancements and ChallengesIntroduction: The Importance of Drought Early WarningRecent AdvancementsUS Drought MonitorNIDIS Regional Drought Early Warning SystemsDrought Indicators and IndicesRemote SensingDrought ForecastingChallengesDrought ImpactsDrought TriggersConnecting Drought Early Warning with Drought Risk ManagementClimate Change and Drought ImpactsConclusionReferencesHandbook of Drought Indicators and Indices'IntroductionDefinitions: Indicators versus IndicesApproaches for Monitoring Drought and Guiding Early Warning and AssessmentSummary of Indicators and IndicesIndex and Indicator ResourcesIndicators and IndicesMeteorologySoil MoistureHydrologyRemote SensingComposite or ModeledReferencesBibliographyThe Application of Triggers in Drought Management: An Example from ColoradoIntroductionEstablishing TriggersSelection of IndicesDetermining ThresholdsActivating Responses to TriggersDeveloping a Collaborative ProcessUnderstanding UsabilityProtocol for Evaluation and UpdatesExamples of Triggers in ActionColorado's Drought Mitigation and Response PlanImplementing Task ForcesCase Study—Colorado 2011-2013 DroughtAdvancements in Satellite Remote Sensing for Drought MonitoringIntroductionTraditional Drought Monitoring ToolsTraditional Remote Sensing Methods for Drought MonitoringRecent Remote Sensing AdvancementsVegetation ConditionEvapotranspiration (ET)PrecipitationTerrestrial Water StorageSoil MoistureGroundwaterData AssimilationForecasting and PredictionConclusion and Future DirectionsReferencesEvapotranspiration, Evaporative Demand, and DroughtIntroduction and MotivationCurrent Treatment of ET and E0 in DroughtGoals of This ChapterE0, ET, and Their Physical Relationships to DroughtEvaporative Demand, E0Evapotranspiration, ETET-E0 Relations under DroughtE 0- and ET-based Drought-Monitoring ToolsExisting ToolsEmerging ToolsEarly WarningAttributionForecasting E0E0, ET, and Drought at Climate ScalesGeneral ExpectationsThe "Warming Is Drying" MessageAddressing Carbon-Plant Relations in Climate-Scale AnalysesSummary of Climate-Scale Analysis IssuesResearch DirectionsOperational ProductsESI as a Predictor of Agricultural Yield AnomaliesForecasting E0Climate-Scale AnalysesResearch-to-Operations/Applications (R2O/R2A) and Operations-to-Research (O2R) ArcsConcluding RemarksReferencesA Role for Streamflow Forecasting in Managing Risk Associated with Drought and Other Water CrisesIntroductionHydroclimate Variability and Seasonal Streamflow ForecastAdoption ConstraintsEstimating the Potential of Seasonal Streamflow ForecastCase Study ContextSeasonal Forecast ModelsForecast Model ResultsDecision-Making ModelsModeling ResultsReality BitesSummaryFuture DirectionsReferencesDrought Mitigation: Water Conservation Tools for Short-Term and Permanent Water SavingsIntroduction: A New Era of Water Scarcity or an Old Error of Water Waste?Water Conservation: The Great Untapped Water SupplyConclusionsReferencesThe Role of Water Harvesting and Supplemental Irrigation in Coping with Water Scarcity and Drought in the Dry AreasIntroductionSupplemental IrrigationOptimization of Supplemental IrrigationDeficit Supplemental IrrigationMaximizing Net ProfitsCropping Patterns and Cultural PracticesWater versus Land ProductivityWater HarvestingThe Concept and Components of the SystemWater Harvesting TechniquesMicrocatchment SystemsMacrocatchment SystemsWater Harvesting for Supplemental IrrigationAdaptation to Climate ChangeConclusionsReferencesSection IV Case Studies in Integrated Drought and Water Management: The Role of Science, Technology, Management, and Policy Floods Punctuated by Drought: Developing an Early Warning System for the Missouri River Basin in the Midst of Alternating ExtremesIntroductionAlternating Extremes: The 2011 Flood and 2012 DroughtThe Interaction of Floods and Droughts in the Missouri River BasinOutcomes of the 2011 Flood and 2012 Drought: Implications for Improving Drought Early WarningImproved Monitoring and Indicator DevelopmentImproved Communication and CoordinationConclusionReferencesManaging Drought in Urban Centers: Lessons from AustraliaIntroduction to Australia's Millennium DroughtLeverage Opportunity but Beware of Politicized PanicPartnerships and CollaborationImplementing Supply- and Demand-Side OptionsConclusions and Applications Beyond AustraliaReferencesManaging Drought and Water Scarcity in Federal Political SystemsIntroductionAustraliaHistory of Major DroughtsTensionsInstitutional MechanismsLessonsSpainHistory of DroughtsTensions and Cooperation ChallengesInstitutional Mechanisms and Adaptation OptionsLessons LearnedUnited StatesHistory of DroughtsTensions and CooperationInstitutional MechanismsLessons LearnedConclusionTensionsInstitutional Mechanisms and Adaptation OptionsLessons for the FutureReferencesDrought Risk Management: Needs and Experiences in EuropeIntroductionDrought Monitoring and ForecastingMeteorological Drought MonitoringAgricultural Drought MonitoringHydrological Drought MonitoringForecastingDrought Risk Assessment at the Global LevelExposureVulnerabilityLikelihood of Drought Impact (LDI)Supporting the Global Activities of the European Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC)Conclusions and OutlookReferencesNational Drought Policy in Mexico: A Paradigm Change from Reactive to Proactive ManagementIntroductionDrought in Mexican HistoryThe 2010-2013 Drought and the Reactive ApproachThe International ContextTheoretical Framework ConsiderationsMexican National Drought PolicyPRONACOSEInterministerial Commission for the Attention of Drought and Flooding (IC)Policy InstrumentsFindings and Preliminary ConclusionsReferencesDrought Risk Management in the Caribbean Community: Early Warning Information and Other Risk Reduction ConsiderationsIntroduction: The Caribbean Context of DroughtNature of Caribbean Rainfall Characteristics, Seasonal Patterns, and TrendsImpacts from Recent Drought Events—the Case for Enhancing Drought Management in the CaribbeanDeclines in RainfallImpacts on SectorsDrought Early Warning Information in the CaribbeanDrought Early Warning Prior to 2009Establishing the CDPMNDrought Early Warning Information and ProductsRegional Drought Monitoring in CARICOMRegional Drought Forecasting in CARICOMDrought Early Warning Supporting Risk Reduction in the Caribbean—Policymaking and PlanningEnabling Environment for Drought Risk ManagementDrought Risk Management: Capacity Building at the National LevelBuilding on the Foundation: Advancing Drought Management in CARICOM through Early Warning and Other Risk Reduction OptionsReferencesFacilitating a Proactive Drought Management and Policy Shift: Recent Lessons from Northeast BrazilDroughts and Their Management in BrazilShifting the Paradigm along the Three Pillars FrameworkKey Advancements in Drought Policy and ManagementLessons Learned and Next StepsReferencesDroughts and Drought Management in the Czech Republic in a Changing ClimateIntroductionPast and Present DroughtsSynoptic and Anthropogenic Factors of DroughtsClimate Forcings of DroughtsFuture DroughtsImproving Drought PreparednessRole of Drought Monitoring and ForecastSummary and OutlookReferencesDrought Planning and Management in the Iberian PeninsulaIntroductionCharacterization of Droughts in Iberian PeninsulaSetting the Scene: European and Iberian Drought Planning and Management ContextThe Albufeira ConventionCurrent Drought Planning and Management in the Iberian PeninsulaDrought Institutional FrameworkDrought ManagementDrought Monitoring SystemsSpainPortugalOverall Comparison between Portugal and SpainConclusions/Future PerspectivesReferencesEstablishing the Queensland Drought Mitigation CentreIntroductionThe Queensland Drought Mitigation CentreSummaryReferencesDrought and Water Crises: Lessons Drawn, Some Lessons Learned, and the Road AheadIntroductionMoving from Crisis to Risk Management: Changing the ParadigmEmerging IssuesFinal ThoughtsReferences
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