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Drought and Water Crises: Integrating Science, Management, and Policy

Section I Overview Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context Introduction Drought as Hazard: Concepts, Definition, and Types Types of Drought Characterizing Drought and Its Severity Drought as Disaster: The Social and Political Context The Challenge of Drought Early Warning The Three-Pillar Approach to Drought Risk Management Summary and Conclusion References Section II Drought Risk Reduction: Shifting the Paradigm from Managing Disasters to Managing Risk The High-level Meeting on National Drought Policy: A Summary of Outcomes Introduction Goals of the National Drought Policies Organization of HMNDP Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Information Systems Drought Prediction and Predictability Drought Vulnerability, Impact Assessment, Drought Preparedness, and Mitigation Planning for Appropriate Response and Relief within the Framework of National Drought Policy Constructing a Framework for National Drought Policy: The Way Forward Main Outcomes of the High-level Segment of HMNDP Final Declaration of HMNDP Summary and Conclusions References Integrated Drought Management Initiatives Introduction Early Outputs of Global Collaboration—The Approach of the Integrated Drought Management Programme UN-Water Initiative on Capacity Development to Support National Drought Management Policies Regional and National Application of Outputs Central and Eastern Europe Horn of Africa Conclusions References National Drought Management Policy Guidelines: A Template for Action Introduction Drought Policy and Preparedness: Setting the Stage Drought Policy: Characteristics and the Way Forward COMMUNITY-BASED RESILIENCE ANALYSIS (COBRA) IN KENYA AND UGANDA DROUGHT MITIGATION National Drought Management Policy: A Process Step 1: Appoint a National Drought Commission Step 2: State or Define the Goals and Objectives of a Risk-Based National Drought Management Policy Step 3: Seek Stakeholder Participation; Define and Resolve Conflicts between Key Water Use Sectors, Considering also Transboundary Implications Step 4: Inventory Data and Financial Resources Available and Identify Groups at Risk Step 5: Prepare/Write the Key Tenets of a National Drought Management Policy and Preparedness Plans, Including the Following Elements: Monitoring, Early Warning, and Prediction; Risk and Impact Assessment; and Mitigation and Response Monitoring, Early Warning, and Information Delivery Committee Risk Assessment Committee Mitigation and Response Committee Writing the Mitigation Plan Step 6: Identify Research Needs and Fill Institutional Gaps Step 7: Integrate Science and Policy Aspects of Drought Management Step 8: Publicize the National Drought Management Policy and Preparedness Plans and Build Public Awareness and Consensus Step 9: Develop Education Programs for All Age and Population Groups Step 10: Evaluate and Revise National Drought Management Policy and Supporting Preparedness Plans Ongoing Evaluation Post-Drought Evaluation Summary and Conclusion References Benefits of Action and Costs of Inaction: Drought Mitigation and Preparedness—A Literature Review Introduction Benefits of Action versus Costs of Inaction: Concepts and Methodologies Methodologies for Drought Impact Assessment Global and Local Drought Costs Evaluations Action against Drought: Risk Management versus Crisis Management From Crisis Management to Risk Management: Obstacles and Opportunities Drivers of Ex Ante and Ex Post Action against Drought Cobenefits of Drought Risk Management Strategies Conclusions and Next Steps References Section III Advances in Tools for Drought Prediction, Early Warning, Decision Support, and Management Research to Advance Drought Monitoring and Prediction Capabilities Introduction Research to Improve Drought Monitoring Land Surface Modeling and Indices Remotely Sensed Observational Analyses Advancing Drought Prediction Capabilities Current Operational and Experimental Prediction Capabilities Drought Mechanisms and Predictability Drought Prediction Understanding Drought Predictability References Drought Monitoring and Early Warning: Twenty-First Century Advancements and Challenges Introduction: The Importance of Drought Early Warning Recent Advancements US Drought Monitor NIDIS Regional Drought Early Warning Systems Drought Indicators and Indices Remote Sensing Drought Forecasting Challenges Drought Impacts Drought Triggers Connecting Drought Early Warning with Drought Risk Management Climate Change and Drought Impacts Conclusion References Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices'Introduction Definitions: Indicators versus Indices Approaches for Monitoring Drought and Guiding Early Warning and Assessment Summary of Indicators and Indices Index and Indicator Resources Indicators and Indices Meteorology Soil Moisture Hydrology Remote Sensing Composite or Modeled References Bibliography The Application of Triggers in Drought Management: An Example from Colorado Introduction Establishing Triggers Selection of Indices Determining Thresholds Activating Responses to Triggers Developing a Collaborative Process Understanding Usability Protocol for Evaluation and Updates Examples of Triggers in Action Colorado's Drought Mitigation and Response Plan Implementing Task Forces Case Study—Colorado 2011-2013 Drought Advancements in Satellite Remote Sensing for Drought Monitoring Introduction Traditional Drought Monitoring Tools Traditional Remote Sensing Methods for Drought Monitoring Recent Remote Sensing Advancements Vegetation Condition Evapotranspiration (ET)Precipitation Terrestrial Water Storage Soil Moisture Groundwater Data Assimilation Forecasting and Prediction Conclusion and Future Directions References Evapotranspiration, Evaporative Demand, and Drought Introduction and Motivation Current Treatment of ET and E0 in Drought Goals of This Chapter E0, ET, and Their Physical Relationships to Drought Evaporative Demand, E0 Evapotranspiration, ET ET-E0 Relations under Drought E 0- and ET-based Drought-Monitoring Tools Existing Tools Emerging Tools Early Warning Attribution Forecasting E0 E0, ET, and Drought at Climate Scales General Expectations The "Warming Is Drying" Message Addressing Carbon-Plant Relations in Climate-Scale Analyses Summary of Climate-Scale Analysis Issues Research Directions Operational Products ESI as a Predictor of Agricultural Yield Anomalies Forecasting E0 Climate-Scale Analyses Research-to-Operations/Applications (R2O/R2A) and Operations-to-Research (O2R) Arcs Concluding Remarks References A Role for Streamflow Forecasting in Managing Risk Associated with Drought and Other Water Crises Introduction Hydroclimate Variability and Seasonal Streamflow Forecast Adoption Constraints Estimating the Potential of Seasonal Streamflow Forecast Case Study Context Seasonal Forecast Models Forecast Model Results Decision-Making Models Modeling Results Reality Bites Summary Future Directions References Drought Mitigation: Water Conservation Tools for Short-Term and Permanent Water Savings Introduction: A New Era of Water Scarcity or an Old Error of Water Waste?Water Conservation: The Great Untapped Water Supply Conclusions References The Role of Water Harvesting and Supplemental Irrigation in Coping with Water Scarcity and Drought in the Dry Areas Introduction Supplemental Irrigation Optimization of Supplemental Irrigation Deficit Supplemental Irrigation Maximizing Net Profits Cropping Patterns and Cultural Practices Water versus Land Productivity Water Harvesting The Concept and Components of the System Water Harvesting Techniques Microcatchment Systems Macrocatchment Systems Water Harvesting for Supplemental Irrigation Adaptation to Climate Change Conclusions References Section IV Case Studies in Integrated Drought and Water Management: The Role of Science, Technology, Management, and Policy Floods Punctuated by Drought: Developing an Early Warning System for the Missouri River Basin in the Midst of Alternating Extremes Introduction Alternating Extremes: The 2011 Flood and 2012 Drought The Interaction of Floods and Droughts in the Missouri River Basin Outcomes of the 2011 Flood and 2012 Drought: Implications for Improving Drought Early Warning Improved Monitoring and Indicator Development Improved Communication and Coordination Conclusion References Managing Drought in Urban Centers: Lessons from Australia Introduction to Australia's Millennium Drought Leverage Opportunity but Beware of Politicized Panic Partnerships and Collaboration Implementing Supply- and Demand-Side Options Conclusions and Applications Beyond Australia References Managing Drought and Water Scarcity in Federal Political Systems Introduction Australia History of Major Droughts Tensions Institutional Mechanisms Lessons Spain History of Droughts Tensions and Cooperation Challenges Institutional Mechanisms and Adaptation Options Lessons Learned United States History of Droughts Tensions and Cooperation Institutional Mechanisms Lessons Learned Conclusion Tensions Institutional Mechanisms and Adaptation Options Lessons for the Future References Drought Risk Management: Needs and Experiences in Europe Introduction Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Meteorological Drought Monitoring Agricultural Drought Monitoring Hydrological Drought Monitoring Forecasting Drought Risk Assessment at the Global Level Exposure Vulnerability Likelihood of Drought Impact (LDI)Supporting the Global Activities of the European Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC)Conclusions and Outlook References National Drought Policy in Mexico: A Paradigm Change from Reactive to Proactive Management Introduction Drought in Mexican History The 2010-2013 Drought and the Reactive Approach The International Context Theoretical Framework Considerations Mexican National Drought Policy PRONACOSE Interministerial Commission for the Attention of Drought and Flooding (IC)Policy Instruments Findings and Preliminary Conclusions References Drought Risk Management in the Caribbean Community: Early Warning Information and Other Risk Reduction Considerations Introduction: The Caribbean Context of Drought Nature of Caribbean Rainfall Characteristics, Seasonal Patterns, and Trends Impacts from Recent Drought Events—the Case for Enhancing Drought Management in the Caribbean Declines in Rainfall Impacts on Sectors Drought Early Warning Information in the Caribbean Drought Early Warning Prior to 2009 Establishing the CDPMN Drought Early Warning Information and Products Regional Drought Monitoring in CARICOM Regional Drought Forecasting in CARICOM Drought Early Warning Supporting Risk Reduction in the Caribbean—Policymaking and Planning Enabling Environment for Drought Risk Management Drought Risk Management: Capacity Building at the National Level Building on the Foundation: Advancing Drought Management in CARICOM through Early Warning and Other Risk Reduction Options References Facilitating a Proactive Drought Management and Policy Shift: Recent Lessons from Northeast Brazil Droughts and Their Management in Brazil Shifting the Paradigm along the Three Pillars Framework Key Advancements in Drought Policy and Management Lessons Learned and Next Steps References Droughts and Drought Management in the Czech Republic in a Changing Climate Introduction Past and Present Droughts Synoptic and Anthropogenic Factors of Droughts Climate Forcings of Droughts Future Droughts Improving Drought Preparedness Role of Drought Monitoring and Forecast Summary and Outlook References Drought Planning and Management in the Iberian Peninsula Introduction Characterization of Droughts in Iberian Peninsula Setting the Scene: European and Iberian Drought Planning and Management Context The Albufeira Convention Current Drought Planning and Management in the Iberian Peninsula Drought Institutional Framework Drought Management Drought Monitoring Systems Spain Portugal Overall Comparison between Portugal and Spain Conclusions/Future Perspectives References Establishing the Queensland Drought Mitigation Centre Introduction The Queensland Drought Mitigation Centre Summary References Drought and Water Crises: Lessons Drawn, Some Lessons Learned, and the Road Ahead Introduction Moving from Crisis to Risk Management: Changing the Paradigm Emerging Issues Final Thoughts References

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