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Fundamental Uncertainty: Rationality and Plausible Reasoning

Uncertainty, plausible reasoning and the continuum of inductive methods A refinement of the distinction between risk and uncertainty: fundamental uncertainty Plausible reasoning under fundamental uncertainty The scope of the volume and its contributions Epilogue Notes References Logic, Empiricism and Probability Structures Keynes's Treatise on Probability Logic and empiricism Probability a logical relation Probability values Ramsey's criticism A logical relation?Dutch Book Black and white balls Assessing the philosophical issues Notes References The Weight of Argument The somewhat novel question Peirce on balancing reasons Keynes as a conceptualist Keynes on frequentism Is more information always a good thing?Keynes and Ramsey (and Savage and Good)Inductive warrant and weight of argument Notes References A Critical Evaluation of Comparative Probability Introduction Probability as the degree of rational belief The epistemological dilemma between quantitative and qualitative probability Sufficient condition of comparability Comparative indifference principle Conclusion: epistemological advantages of comparative probability Notes References A Theory of Similarity and Uncertainty Two sides of uncertainty Variety and types Imprecise circumscriptions and limited uniformity Polar and intermediate cases Patterns of similarity Ontological criteria and epistemic criteria Similarity relations and measures of distance Uncertainty under similarity structures Orders of similarity and similarity judgements Similarity, likelihood and uncertainty Short-term and long-term orders of likelihood Reasoning with uncertainty Cognitive tension under fundamental uncertainty Balancing acts Non-exclusion, uncertainty, and similarity thresholds: concluding remarks Notes References Generalized Theory of Uncertainty: Principal Concepts and Ideas Introduction Uncertainty and probability theory The concept of NL-computation The concept of precisiation The concept of cointensive precisiation A key idea—the meaning postulate The concept of a generalized constraint Principal modalities of generalized constraints The concept of bimodal constraint/distribution The concept of a group constraint Primary constraints, composite constraints, and standard constraints The generalized constraint language and standard constraint language The concept of granular value The concept of protoform The concept of generalized constraint-based computation Protoformal deduction rules Examples of computation/deduction The Robert example The tall Swedes problem We start with the information set Tall Swedes and tall Italians Simplified trip planning Concluding remark References Weight of Argument and Economic Decisions Introduction Definitions of 'weight of argument'Weight of argument and modalities of uncertainty Practical relevance of the weight of argument: preliminary analysis The weight of argument in the light of theory of decision under uncertainty The weight of argument in the General Theory Concluding remarks Notes References The Relevance Quotient: Keynes and Carnap Introduction From the coefficient of influence to the relevance quotient The formal definition of the relevance quotient Regular probabilities Exchangeable probabilities Exchangeability, independence and relevance quotient Invariant probabilities The main theorem A new demonstration Inductive applications Particle statistics Closed dynamical systems Destruction and creation probabilities Unary moves Two economic applications Customers and shops: Ewens's limit Stock-price dynamics: thermodynamic limit The role of probability in economics References Non-Self-Averaging Phenomena in Macroeconomics: Neglected Sources of Uncertainty and Policy Ineffectiveness Introduction Coefficient of variation and policy ineffectiveness Binary choice: model 1 Policy multiplier in binary choice: model 2 Two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution of innovation arrival processes GDP is non-self-averaging Mittag-Leffler function Ineffective policy choices in non-self-averaging models The non-self-averaging phenomenon in two blocks of economies The master equation, probability generating function and cumulant equations The dynamics for the mean and the covariance matrix elements The behaviour of the coefficients of variation Related simulation studies Non-self-averaging triangular urn models Balanced triangular urn models Concluding remarks Appendix: Mittag-Leffler function and its distribution Note References A Critical Reorientation of Keynes's Economic and Philosophical Thoughts Introduction Induction and the 'atomic' universe A model of ethical behaviour and the atomic hypothesis The Quarterly Journal of Economics article and the atomic hypothesis The General Theory and the atomic hypothesis The 'theory' of effective demand The 'principle' of effective demand: Pasinetti's view The Keynesian world view: deterministic uniformity in the macro world versus the uncertainty of an individual unit in the micro world The 'whole-parts' issue: views of scientists and scholars in the natural and moral sciences15 Physicists' views of natural laws The sociological view according to Emile Durkheim Saussure's view of 'systeme'Sraffa's production system: a theory independent of the atomic hypothesis A critical reorientation of Keynes's economic theory Notes References Uncertainty and Rationality: Keynes and Modern Economics Changing views about the future in a monetary economy Non-ergodicity, Keynesian uncertainty and probabilistic risk Knight's and Keynes's distinction between risk and uncertainty Post-Keynesians, historical time and crucial decision making Instrumental rationality, cognitive rationality, and the structure of long-period expectations New Classical Economics and Keynes's stochastic processes Keynes' conception of instrumental rationality Uncertainty and long-period expectations Concluding remarks Notes References Moral Good and Right Conduct: A General Theory of Welfare under Fundamental Uncertainty Introduction Welfare theories based on the ethics of motive Traditional utilitarianism: Benthamism The neo-Humean view Ordinal utility: new welfare economics and the theory of social choice Cardinal preferences: Harsanyi's rule utilitarianism Instrumental rationality and ethics of motive Substantive rationality Maximization of expected utility, and bounded rationality Welfare theory and ethics of end: from Moore to Keynes The nature of the good: the ideal as a state of mind Keynes's moral philosophy and theory of rational decisions Keynes' view of moral value: the principle of organicism Ethical goodness and economic welfare Ethics of end and right conduct Keynes' criticism of ideal utilitarianism Logical probability Weight of argument and moral risk Right conduct when knowledge is not enough Rational dualism Other procedures: conventional judgement Discussion: A general theory of welfare Subjective values Objective values Conclusion Notes References

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