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Fundamental Uncertainty: Rationality and Plausible Reasoning
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Fundamental Uncertainty: Rationality and Plausible Reasoning
Uncertainty, plausible reasoning and the continuum of inductive methods
A refinement of the distinction between risk and uncertainty: fundamental uncertainty
Plausible reasoning under fundamental uncertainty
The scope of the volume and its contributions
Epilogue
Notes
References
Logic, Empiricism and Probability Structures
Keynes's Treatise on Probability
Logic and empiricism
Probability a logical relation
Probability values
Ramsey's criticism
A logical relation?
Dutch Book
Black and white balls
Assessing the philosophical issues
Notes
References
The Weight of Argument
The somewhat novel question
Peirce on balancing reasons
Keynes as a conceptualist
Keynes on frequentism
Is more information always a good thing?
Keynes and Ramsey (and Savage and Good)
Inductive warrant and weight of argument
Notes
References
A Critical Evaluation of Comparative Probability
Introduction
Probability as the degree of rational belief
The epistemological dilemma between quantitative and qualitative probability
Sufficient condition of comparability
Comparative indifference principle
Conclusion: epistemological advantages of comparative probability
Notes
References
A Theory of Similarity and Uncertainty
Two sides of uncertainty
Variety and types
Imprecise circumscriptions and limited uniformity
Polar and intermediate cases
Patterns of similarity
Ontological criteria and epistemic criteria
Similarity relations and measures of distance
Uncertainty under similarity structures
Orders of similarity and similarity judgements
Similarity, likelihood and uncertainty
Short-term and long-term orders of likelihood
Reasoning with uncertainty
Cognitive tension under fundamental uncertainty
Balancing acts
Non-exclusion, uncertainty, and similarity thresholds: concluding remarks
Notes
References
Generalized Theory of Uncertainty: Principal Concepts and Ideas
Introduction
Uncertainty and probability theory
The concept of NL-computation
The concept of precisiation
The concept of cointensive precisiation
A key idea—the meaning postulate
The concept of a generalized constraint
Principal modalities of generalized constraints
The concept of bimodal constraint/distribution
The concept of a group constraint
Primary constraints, composite constraints, and standard constraints
The generalized constraint language and standard constraint language
The concept of granular value
The concept of protoform
The concept of generalized constraint-based computation
Protoformal deduction rules
Examples of computation/deduction
The Robert example
The tall Swedes problem We start with the information set
Tall Swedes and tall Italians
Simplified trip planning
Concluding remark
References
Weight of Argument and Economic Decisions
Introduction
Definitions of 'weight of argument'
Weight of argument and modalities of uncertainty
Practical relevance of the weight of argument: preliminary analysis
The weight of argument in the light of theory of decision under uncertainty
The weight of argument in the General Theory
Concluding remarks
Notes
References
The Relevance Quotient: Keynes and Carnap
Introduction
From the coefficient of influence to the relevance quotient
The formal definition of the relevance quotient
Regular probabilities
Exchangeable probabilities
Exchangeability, independence and relevance quotient
Invariant probabilities
The main theorem
A new demonstration
Inductive applications
Particle statistics
Closed dynamical systems
Destruction and creation probabilities
Unary moves
Two economic applications
Customers and shops: Ewens's limit
Stock-price dynamics: thermodynamic limit
The role of probability in economics
References
Non-Self-Averaging Phenomena in Macroeconomics: Neglected Sources of Uncertainty and Policy Ineffectiveness
Introduction
Coefficient of variation and policy ineffectiveness
Binary choice: model 1
Policy multiplier in binary choice: model 2
Two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution of innovation arrival processes
GDP is non-self-averaging
Mittag-Leffler function
Ineffective policy choices in non-self-averaging models
The non-self-averaging phenomenon in two blocks of economies
The master equation, probability generating function and cumulant equations
The dynamics for the mean and the covariance matrix elements
The behaviour of the coefficients of variation
Related simulation studies
Non-self-averaging triangular urn models
Balanced triangular urn models
Concluding remarks
Appendix: Mittag-Leffler function and its distribution
Note
References
A Critical Reorientation of Keynes's Economic and Philosophical Thoughts
Introduction
Induction and the 'atomic' universe
A model of ethical behaviour and the atomic hypothesis
The Quarterly Journal of Economics article and the atomic hypothesis
The General Theory and the atomic hypothesis
The 'theory' of effective demand
The 'principle' of effective demand: Pasinetti's view
The Keynesian world view: deterministic uniformity in the macro world versus the uncertainty of an individual unit in the micro world
The 'whole-parts' issue: views of scientists and scholars in the natural and moral sciences15
Physicists' views of natural laws
The sociological view according to Emile Durkheim
Saussure's view of 'systeme'
Sraffa's production system: a theory independent of the atomic hypothesis
A critical reorientation of Keynes's economic theory
Notes
References
Uncertainty and Rationality: Keynes and Modern Economics
Changing views about the future in a monetary economy
Non-ergodicity, Keynesian uncertainty and probabilistic risk
Knight's and Keynes's distinction between risk and uncertainty
Post-Keynesians, historical time and crucial decision making
Instrumental rationality, cognitive rationality, and the structure of long-period expectations
New Classical Economics and Keynes's stochastic processes
Keynes' conception of instrumental rationality
Uncertainty and long-period expectations
Concluding remarks
Notes
References
Moral Good and Right Conduct: A General Theory of Welfare under Fundamental Uncertainty
Introduction
Welfare theories based on the ethics of motive
Traditional utilitarianism: Benthamism
The neo-Humean view
Ordinal utility: new welfare economics and the theory of social choice
Cardinal preferences: Harsanyi's rule utilitarianism
Instrumental rationality and ethics of motive
Substantive rationality
Maximization of expected utility, and bounded rationality
Welfare theory and ethics of end: from Moore to Keynes
The nature of the good: the ideal as a state of mind
Keynes's moral philosophy and theory of rational decisions
Keynes' view of moral value: the principle of organicism
Ethical goodness and economic welfare
Ethics of end and right conduct
Keynes' criticism of ideal utilitarianism
Logical probability
Weight of argument and moral risk
Right conduct when knowledge is not enough
Rational dualism
Other procedures: conventional judgement
Discussion: A general theory of welfare
Subjective values
Objective values
Conclusion
Notes
References
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