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Home arrow Education arrow Fundamental Uncertainty: Rationality and Plausible Reasoning
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Tall Swedes and tall Italians

p: Most Swedes are much taller than most Italians. q: What is the difference in the average height of Swedes and the average height of Italians?

Step 1: Precisiation: translation of p into GCL.

S = (S1,^,S„|: population of Swedes,

I = {IV...,I}: population of Italians,

gi = height of Su g = (gl,???,gm), hj = height of I, h = (h1,...,hn),

fiij = Mmuch.taiier fe,h;) = degree to which Si is much taller than I, ri = ~S:ai: = Relative SCount of Italians in relation to whom Si is

1 П Г1) 1

much taller,

tt = mmost (r) = degree to which St is much taller than most Italians,

v =St = Relative SCount of Swedes who are much taller than

m 1

most Italians, ts(g, h) = mmost (v), p->? generalized constraint on S and I,

Step 2: Deduction via extension principle subject to

Simplified trip planning

Probably it will take about two hours to get from San Francisco to Monterey, and it will probably take about five hours to get from Monterey to Los Angeles. What is the probability of getting to Los Angeles in less than about seven hours?

subject to

 
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