Need for coordination and initiative in global governance

The lack of consensus between and among established and emerging powers suggests that multilateral governance to 2030 will be limited at best. The chronic deficit probably will reinforce the trend toward fragmentation.

(National Intelligence Council, 2012, p. xiii)

As the American futurist pointed out in the report, there are three forecasts for the global system's future. The worst prediction refers to a chaotic situation in international politics, in which global governance faces a chronic deficit, with an increased possibility of regional conflict. The world will face "Great Stagnation” while Asia might suffer from "The Great Game” between emerging and established powers. The more realistic prospect indicates that the imbalance of global development will continue to grow; more countries will leave the EU; the United States could become energy-independent and remain "first among equals” among the other great powers but might be challenged by other emerging powers on its leadership in some fields; both emerging and established economies are eager to take the lead, but their efforts only bring little effect; and problems will appear in China's domestic governance. The more optimistic prospect is that there will be a “greatly integrated world”; a strategic partnership will be established between China, the United States, and Europe; China’s domestic reforms will promote the realization of political tmst among major powers; and technological innovation will bring about a rapid increase in global wealth. From the analysis of the above-mentioned authoritative institutions in the United States, the key to achieving a "greatly integrated world” is to promote global technological innovation while strengthening the alliance between major powers. This is also the main direction of global governance pushed by international society in recent years. In this process, an important issue is China and the United States repositioning their international identity. If the United States positions itself as a protectionist and anti-globalization force, this would be a fatal blow to global governance. Meanwhile, if China cannot avoid the "middle-in-come trap” and cannot establish political mutual trust with other major powers, there will be a failure to establish global governance alliances. Apparently, the most important factors in responding to the global governance crisis still lie in China's domestic governance and America's global responsibility. Only through joint governance and the successful establishment of the strategic partnership between China and the United States can the global power achieve a peaceful and smooth transition.

 
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