Sociological path-dependency as a dynamic theory of structural disaster

One of the key differentiators between the dynamic and static parts of the structural disaster concept is in how the duration of time is treated. Particularly in cases of extreme events, such as a structural disaster that unfolds within the science- technology-society interface, it is crucial to pay careful attention to the virtual impossibility for the agents involved to make ex ante predictions of the course of

Figure 2.1 One-dimensional Narrative of Airfoil Development Trajectory

Notes: 1903 indicates the year when the Wright brothers made their first flight. A1 ... An indicate a particular type of airfoils that enabled the top performance measured by various indexes such as lift-to-drag ratio in each stage of the technological development. A linear image is employed only for the sake of simplification.

events due to dual underdetermination. To cite a simpler example, the development trajectory of airfoil (airplane wing) embodies one-dimensional development of technology; however, this is only possible based on ex post narratives such as leading from the airfoil of the first aircraft to those airfoils effectuating top-ranked performance in each stage of development (Figure 2.1).¹⁹

Hindsight makes this kind of one-dimensional narrative possible. In contrast, no single agent involved is privileged to obtain ex ante predictions from the future. No agent knows which airfoil will be the best solution in advance. This requires an alternative and more realistic narrative, which establishes the social process of singling out one wpe of airfoil among mutually competing types with almost unknown performance at a given time (Figure 2.2).

This narrative adopts the viewpoint of actual agents who undergo dual underdetermination and, therein, get involved in the social process in which they single out one particular type of technology from among other alternatives available at a given time. When the scope is widened to incorporate the science-technology- society interface, stronger dual underdetermination occurs because the development trajectory of science and the course of social change must be considered simultaneously with the development trajectory of technology. Therefore, the

Figure 2.2 Alternative Narrative of Airfoil Development Trajectory Source: Jacobs, Ward, and Pinkerton (1933).

adoption of the viewpoint of actual agents who undergo dual underdetermination in the science-technology-society interface is more logical when portraying the dynamic aspect of structural disaster in the interface. How, then, is it possible for such a complex viewpoint to be part of the dynamic aspect of structural disaster rather than as part of the static aspect? The answer can be found by shifting the focus away from a single cause/single incident that corresponds to some elements of the disaster to tracking down a generalized mechanism at work within structural disaster.