GHG Reduction by Introducing “Ten Actions”
The contributions of the ten actions have been quantified by a global computable general equilibrium model. The model used here divides the world into 17 regions as shown in Table 1.2 and contains the categories of governments, households, and producers. The production is classified into 32 goods. The model deals with power generation technologies in detail. This report depicts the advanced society scenario developed by the Low-Carbon Asia Research Project. About the more detailed model structure, please see Fujimori et al. (2012, 2013). Figures 1.4, 1.5, and 1.6 show the trajectories up to 2050 in population, GDP, and primary energy supply by region in the reference scenario, respectively. First, the GHG emissions in the reference case of the advanced society scenario in Table 1.1 are estimated. Then, the LCS scenarios with the ten actions are quantified, targeting a halving of global GHG emissions by 2050. Subsequently, the emission reductions and the contribution of each action in 2050 are estimated.
Table 1.2 Regional classification in this analysis
Note: The five gray cells are regarded as Asia
Fig. 1.4 Regional population trends by 2050 in reference scenario (unit, million)
Fig. 1.5 GDP trends by 2050 in reference scenario (unit, trillion $ at 2005 price)
Fig. 1.6 Primary energy supply by 2050 in reference scenario (unit, EJ/year)
Figure 1.7 shows the future GHG emissions in Asia and the world in reference scenario and LCS scenario. As for the Asia, the quantities of GHG emission reduction by actions are also represented.
Feasibility of Reducing GHG Emissions by 68 %
If all the actions are applied appropriately, GHG emissions in Asia can be reduced by 20 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2), i.e., 68 % of the emissions in the reference scenario, in 2050. These include all the ten actions covered in this report, and some other actions for CH4 and N2O emission reduction in non-agriculture sectors. Figures 1.8 and 1.9 show the primary energy supply by energy type and electricity generation by technology in Asia, respectively. From these figures, the energy saving becomes important through 2050. Moreover, introduction of
Fig. 1.7 GHG emissions in low-carbon Asia
Fig. 1.8 Primary energy supply in Asia by energy type: reference scenario (left) and LCS scenario (right)
Fig. 1.9 Electricity generation in Asia by technology: reference scenario (left) and LCS scenario (right)
non-carbon energies, which include renewable energies and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, becomes important after 2030. The share of fossil fuels in LCS scenario becomes smaller than that in reference scenario, and in the fossil fuel thermal power sectors install the CCS technology.
Actions 1 and 2, which focus on transportation, account for a combined share of 6.1 % of the total reduction in Asia. The share of Action 3, which aims to lower carbon emissions in the usage of materials, is 17 %, while the share of Action 4, which encourages energy saving in buildings, is 13 %. The share of Action 5, which utilizes biomass energy, is 4.7 %, and the share of Action 6, which is related to other energy supply systems, is 37 %. The shares of Actions 7 and 8, dealing with agriculture and forestry, are, respectively, 10 % and 1.6 %. The remaining 11 % of the reduction is accounted for by measures that are not listed in this report. The results of the actions will vary according to each country and region. For example, Actions 3, 4, and 6 will be effective for most countries and regions, whereas the contribution of Action 7 will be the largest in XSA&XOC (South Asia excluding India and small island states in Oceania) and the second largest in India.