Key Message to Policymakers
• India's CO2 intensity declines in BAU yet inadequate for global low carbon goal.
• Carbon price affects energy supply side and leads to high share of nuclear energy and CCS.
• Sustainability policies reduce energy demand and enhance share of renewables.
• Low carbon policies aligned to sustainability goals deliver sizable co-benefits.
• Sustainability scenario delivers same carbon budget with lower social cost of carbon.
India has endorsed the long-term target of limiting the temperature rise to under 2 oC (GoI 2008) and has also made voluntary commitment for reducing the emission intensity of GDP in the year 2020 by 20–25 % below that in the year 2005 at COP15 in Copenhagen. The “National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)” released by the Prime Minister's Office in June 2008 considers mitigation and adaptation actions implemented through eight National Missions (Table 3.1) to which the current government has added four more missions: wind, waste to energy for mitigation, and coastal and human health for adaptation.
The Indian approach to climate change is based on delineating and implementing cost-effective mitigation actions which can contribute to national sustainable development goals while remaining aligned to the UNFCCC's expressed objective of keeping the average global surface temperature increase to below 2 oC over the preindustrial average.
Model and Scenarios
Assessment Methodology and Model System
The integrated framework proposed in Fig. 3.1 falls under the earlier AIM family of models (Kainuma et al. 2003; Shukla et al. 2004). The bottom-up analysis is done
Table 3.1 Eight National Missions for climate change
by the MARKAL model (Fishbone and Abilock 1981). MARKAL is an optimization mathematical model for analyzing the energy system and has a rich characterization of technology and fuel mix at end-use level while maintaining consistency with system constraints such as energy supply, demand, investment, and emissions (Loulou et al. 2004). The ANSWER-MARKAL model framework has been used extensively for India (Shukla et al. 2008, 2009; Dhar and Shukla 2015).
AIM/CGE and GCAM are top-down, computable general equilibrium (CGE), models used to compute the GDP loss and CO2 price for the 2 oC stabilization scenario. AIM/CGE has been developed jointly by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan, and Kyoto University, Japan (AIM Japan Team 2005). The model is used to study the relationship between the economy and environment (Masui 2005).
Fig. 3.1 Integrated model system