Table of Contents:

Scenarios Description

3.2.2.1 Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario

The BAU scenario considers the future economic development will copy the resource-intensive development path followed by the developed countries. The annual GDP growth rate is 8 % for the 17 years (2015–2032) and matches with the economic growth projections for India (GoI 2006, 2011). The GDP growth is expected to slow down post 2030, and the growth for overall scenario horizon, i.e., 2010–2050, is at a CAGR of 7 %. The rate of population growth and urbanization follows the UN median demographic forecast (UNPD 2013), and accordingly, the overall population is expected to increase to 1.62 billion by 2050. This scenario assumes a weak climate regime, and a stabilization target of 650 ppmv CO2e is considered. The carbon price rises to a modest to $20 per ton of CO2 in 2050 (Shukla et al. 2008).

3.2.2.2 Conventional Low Carbon Scenario (CLCS)

This scenario considers a strong climate regime and a stringent carbon tax post 2020. The underlying structure of this scenario is otherwise similar to the BAU. The scenario assumes stabilization target of 450 ppmv CO2e. The CO2 price trajectory assumes implementation of ambitious Copenhagen pledges post 2020, and CO2 price trajectory therefore is below 15 US $ per t CO2 till 2020 and then increases steadily to reach 200 US $ per t CO2 by 2050 (Lucas et al. 2013). The scenario assumes greater improvements in the energy intensity and higher share of wind and solar renewable energy compared to the BAU scenario.

3.2.2.3 Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario (SLCS)

This scenario follows the “sustainability” rationale, similar to B1 global scenario of IPCC (2000). The scenario assumes decoupling of the economic growth from resource-intensive and environmentally unsound conventional path of the BAU. The scenario seeks to achieve by significant institutional, behavioral, technological (including infrastructures), and economic measures promotion of resource conservation, energy conservation, dematerialization, and demand substitution (e.g., telecommunications to avoid travel). The scenario also considers a strong push for exploitation of large renewable energy potential (GoI 2015) and increased regional cooperation among countries in South Asia (Shukla and Dhar 2009) for energy and electricity trade and effective use of shared water and forest resources.

The scenario considers socioeconomic and climate change objectives and targets (Fig. 3.2). The SLCS considers a strong climate regime and climate objective similar to CLCS. The SLCS considers a CO2 budget equivalent to CLCS for the period 2010–2050. However, since CO2 mitigation is a co-benefit of a number of sustainability actions, the social cost of carbon is expected to be lower than CLCS (Shukla et al. 2008).

 
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