GHG Emissions in Iskandar Malaysia
This section presents GHG emission results for Iskandar Malaysia as simulated via the Extended Snapshot tool (ExSS). As mentioned earlier, to quantify GHG emissions in Iskandar Malaysia, a range of parameters (demography, economic growth, industry structure, energy, technology, transportation and land use) from Iskandar Malaysia's CDP, the 24 Iskandar Malaysia blueprints and other official documents are considered in the ExSS modelling. Three scenarios have been generated from the simulation:
1. 2005 – base year scenario
2. 2025 business as usual (BaU) scenario – target year with the development according to the CDP and existing development and environmental policies, without additional carbon mitigation measures
3. 2025 countermeasure (CM) scenario – target year with the development according to an assumed improvised CDP that adopts carbon mitigation options from the low carbon society blueprint
Based on the simulation result from the ExSS model, GHG emissions of Iskandar Malaysia in 2005 have been estimated to be 11.4 MtCO2eq, and the value is projected to almost triple to 31.3 MtCO2eq in the 2025 BaU scenario (Fig. 7.8). With the introduction of the proposed 12 LCS actions (see Sects. 7.4.1 and 7.4.2) and their correspondent implementation programmes from the LCSBPIM2025, increment of GHGs emission has been projected to slow down significantly, leading to an estimated emission level of 18.9 MtCO2eq for the 2025 CM scenario. As the industry sector is the key component in supporting the fast-growing region of IM, the sector will remain the highest emission sector contributing to between 35 and 53 % of the total GHG emissions in IM for all three base year (2005), 2025 BaU and 2025 CM scenarios.
Fig. 7.8 Socio-economic scenario, GHG emission for base year (2005), business as usual (BaU) and countermeasure (CM) scenarios in 2025 (Source: UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre 2013b, p. 1)
The result indicates that full implementation on the Blueprint's LCS programmes would potentially bring about a 58 % reduction of GHG emission intensity (over GDP) in 2025 compared to the 2005 level and a 40 % emission reduction in absolute terms from 2025 BaU (Fig. 7.8). This achievement is higher than the national commitment of 40 % voluntary carbon intensity reduction by 2020 and the Blueprint's initial target of 50 % reduction in intensity.