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A short course of lectures
«China’s Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast»





A Review of China's Economy in 2014Professor Liu Shucheng, Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Ideal Path and Growth Potential of the “New Normal”Forecast of China's Economy During 2015–2016The Result of Policy SimulationsThe Growth Rate of Broad Money Supply (M2)Forecast of GDP GrowthFixed Asset Investment Growth Fell Sharply, but the Investment Structure Started to ImproveProfessor Wang Luolin, Ad Hoc Consultant and Former Executive Vice President of the Chinese AcademyMajor Exchange RatesForecasts of Major Price IndicesPrice Index Continued the Trend of “Double Down,” and the Structural Deflation was IncreasingJia Kang, President of China Academy of New SupplySide Economics and Professor of Research Institute for Fiscal Science, Ministry of Finance: The ReformResident Real Income Growth was SlowingBackground Analysis of Policy SimulationsScenario Design of Policy SimulationsThe Monetary Policy Targeted Eased, and Financing Costs Remained HighFiscal Revenue Growth Was Falling, but the Fiscal Expenditure Structure Continued to ImproveThe Simulation Results of Scenario 2Import and Export Growth Fell Sharply, but the Trade Structure Continued to ImproveEconomic Growth Continued to Fall, but the Proportion of the Tertiary Industry Continued to ImproveThe Simulation Result of Scenario 1The Industrial Profit Growth Declined Sharply, and Eliminating Backward Production Capacity Achieved Certain ProgressAppendixExport, Import, and Reserve GrowthThe Growth Rate of Total Fixed CapitalEconomic Growth Rates of the USA and the EurozoneJia Yandong, Researcher and Deputy DirectorForecasts of Growth Rates of Other Major Macroeconomic IndicatorsComments and DiscussionYang Ruilong, Professor of School of Economics, Renmin University of China: Emphasizing the Bottom-Line Management While Facing New Challenges UnderThe Growth Rate of ConsumptionA Report of the Questionnaire Survey on the Macroeconomic Situation and Policy of China in 2015Assumptions of Exogenous VariablesForecasts of China's Major Macroeconomic Indicators for 2015–2016Professor Gao Peiyong, President of Strategic Finance Academy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:Policy Implications and SuggestionsProfessor Zhang Yansheng, General SecretaryPolicy Simulations
 
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