Behavioural Economics and Terrorism: Law Enforcement and Patterns of Behaviour


PrefaceBlindfold chess and terrorismBounded rationalityHeuristics and biasesBehavioural economicsApplications to counter-terrorismFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesPatterns of reason and unreasonablenessExample #1: the UnabomberExample #2: the Red Army FactionExample #3: take me to the April sun in CubaDecision theory and the ‘criminological turn’Four dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesBounded by rationalityLimited resources: the budget constraintUS embassy attacks and mass casualty bombingsThe willingness to exchange terrorism for legitimate activityFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesLoss aversion and the terrorist identityLoss of a terrorist identityIdentity and substitutionIdentity, loss aversion and patterns of terrorist choiceBargaining with a loss averse decision-makerIdentity loss aversion and unwillingness to disengageFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesProspect theory as a descriptive theory of terrorist choiceThe basics of prospect theoryEditing (or framing) risky prospectsThe evaluation phasePatterns of terrorist choice and copycatsSam Melville and the mad bomberFrom single attack methods to combinationsFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesThe hidden side of attack method combinations and international terrorismHow diversification creates higher rewards with lower riskMPT: a decision rule consistent with diversificationMean-variance utility: patterns of choiceInternational terrorism, international diversificationBehavioural portfolio theoryBPT-SABPT-MAUsing BPT and MPT togetherFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesCycles in terrorism and evolutionary stability‘Share’ and survivalFitness and risk preferenceBrutality, life cycle and contestResolving the problem of cyclesFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesOverconfidence, gender differences and terrorist choiceToo much terrorismTriggers for overconfidenceThe advantages of overconfidence versus the costs of being found outFemale-perpetrated terrorism and overconfidenceNotes on romance, female agency and terrorismFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesExpected utility as a measurement tool in the terrorism contextMeasuring the Jackal’s utilityThe measurement of expected utilityAllowing measurements to be impacted by ‘biases’Dynamic measurements in the face of innovationsFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesDecision-making with more than one reference pointThe reference point concept: from single to multipleMultiple reference points in an investigative contextA note on slackFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesA guide to the terrorism studies conversationThe record of scholarly conversationAccessing the conversation at the right pointUsing Google Scholar and decision-making biasesLoss aversion, slack and searchFour dot points to end the chapterNoteReferencesInformation cascades and the prioritisation of suspectsDecision-making biases and investigationsThe deep roots of cognitive biases: the case of confirmationInformation cascadesFragile cascades and dissemination of intelligenceFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesEveryday decision-makingEveryday decisions, everyday decision-makersEvolving, interconnected reference pointsPredictive policingPredictive counter-terrorismFour dot points to end the chapterNotesReferencesReason, strategy and discoveryThe mainstream of the alternativeRegretFear and hopeDon’t forget the orthodoxyIdeas to take awayNotesReferences