Four dot points to end the chapter

Table of Contents:

• The economic analysis of terrorism has a tendency to focus on exceptional situations rather than the everyday of police work, law enforcement, intelligence and counter-terrorism.

  • • The exceptional situations are usually very structured and this fact makes highly structured theories, such as game theory and some orthodox models, appear to be far more relevant to the problem of terrorism and counter-terrorism than they really are.
  • • The everyday of human decision-making is much messier but still structured enough by frameworks, rules, laws and conventions that patterns of behaviour can be identified and used to make sense of even very complex situations.
  • • Innovations shape and re-shape the terrorism and law enforcement contexts. When new innovations appear, especially technological innovations, we must be careful not to overlook their very human roots. This is certainly the case for predictive policing.


  • 1 Harvey (1968, p. 8).
  • 2 Ethnographies and other first-hand accounts of police work are available. See, for example, Baker (1985).
  • 3 This refers to the caseTerry v Ohio (1968), which set the legal standard for police stops.
  • 4 Stop and frisk attracted much commentary during the 2016 presidential election (see Cassady 2017).
  • 5 A game theorist might come up with a very clever proof that nobody will go to coffee at all.
  • 6 If the crime was unsuccessful, say an interrupted burglary attempt, this might place the offender(s) in the domain of losses.Their risk-seeking behaviour will now prompt a repeat attempt at the same location or nearby. In fact, it is initial failure that might be more likely than initial success to prompt a repeat attempt.


Alexandrie, G. 2017. Surveillance Cameras and Crime: A Review of Randomised and Natural Experiments. Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, 18,210-222.

Arce, D.G. & Sandler, T. 2010. Terrorist Spectaculars: Backlash Attacks and the Focus of Intelligence. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 54,354—373.

Baker, M. 1985. Cops: Their Lives in Their Own Words. New York: Simon & Schuster.

Baumgartner, F.& Jones, B.D. 1993. Agendas and Instability in American Politics. Chicago: Chicago University Press.

Becker, G. 1968. Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach.Jo»r«d/ of Political Economy, lb, 169-217.

Berger, M. 1938.Tapping the Wires. The New Yorker, June 18.

Birkland, T.A. 2004. ‘The World Changed Today’: Agenda-Setting and Policy Change in the Wake of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks. Review of Policy Research, 21,179-200.

Bloss, W.P. 2009. Transforming US Police Surveillance in a New Privacy Paradigm. Police Practice and Research, 10, 225-238.

Bodner, R. & Prelec, D. 2002. Self-Signalling and Diagnostic Utility in Everyday Decision- Making. In I. Brocas & J. Carillo (Eds.), Collected Essays in Psychology and Economics. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 105-123.

Brantingham, RJ.,Valasik, M. & Mohler, G.0.2018. Does Predictive Policing Lead to Biased Arrests? Results from a Randomised Controlled Trial. Statistics and Public Policy, 5,1—6.

Brownell, H.Jr. 1954. Public Security and Wiretapping. Cornell Law Review, 39,195-212.

Byman, D. 2017. Judging Al-Qaeda’s Record, Part 1. Is the Organisation in Decline? Lawfare, June 27.


Cherniak, S.M. 2002. Searching for a Demon: The Media’s Construction of the Militia Movement. Boston: Northeastern University Press.

Cherniak, S.M., Freilich, J.D. & Shemtob, Z. 2009. Law Enforcement Training and the Domestic Far Right. Criminal Justice and Behaviour, 36,1305-1322.

Cherniak, S.M., Freilich,J.D. & Simone Jr, J. 2010. Surveying American State Police Agencies About Lone Wolves, Far-Right Criminality, and Far-Right and Islamic Jihadist Criminal Collaboration. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 33,1019-1041.

Cherniak, S.M., Freilich, J.D. & Suttmoeller, M. 2013. The Organisational Dynamics of Far-Right Hate Groups in the United States: Comparing Violent to Nonviolent Organisations. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 3b, 193-218.

Cowcn, T. 2006. Terrorism as Theatre: Analysis and Policy Implications. Public Choice, 128, 233-244.

Durham, M. 2003. The American Far Right and 9/11. Terrorism and Political Violence, 15, 96—111.

Enders.W. & Sandler,T. 2005. After 9/11. Is It all Different Now? Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49,259-277.

Ferguson, A.G. 2012. Predictive Policing as Reasonable Suspicion. Emory Law Journal, 62, 261-325.

Gelman.A., Fagan,J. & Kiss, A. 2007. An Analysis of the New York City Police Department’s ‘Stop-and-Frisk’ Policy in the Context of Claims of Racial Bias .Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102, 813-823.

Ghosh, S., Meijering, B. & Verbrugge, R. 2014. Strategic Reasoning: Building Cognitive Models from Logical Formulas. Journal of Logic, Language and Information, 23,1-29.

Harvey, P. 1968. What Are Policemen Made Of? FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, 37, 8.

Hastie, R. 2001. Problems for Judgement and Decision-Making. Annual Review of Psychology, 52,653-683.

Hoffman, B. 2006. Inside Terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press.

Johnson, S.D. 2008. Repeat Burglary Victimisation: A Tale of Two Theories. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 4,215-240.

Jones, S.G. 2017. Will Al-Qaeda Make a Comeback? Foreign Affairs, August 7.

Kingdon.J.W. 1995. Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies, 2nd ed. New York: HarperCollins.

Lentan-Langlois, S. 2002. The Myopic Panopticon: The Social Consequences of Policing through the Lens. Policing and Society, 13,43-58.

Maguire, M. 2000. Policing by Risks and Targets: Some Dimensions and Implications of Intelligence-Led Crime Control. Policing and Society, 9,315-336.

McGarrell, E.F., Freilich,J.D. & Cherniak, S. 2007. Intelligence-Led Policing as a Framework for Responding to Terrorism. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 23,142-158.

Meijer, A. & Wessels, M. 2019. Predictive Policing: Review of Benefits and Drawbacks. International Journal of Public Administration, 42,1031-1039.

Mohler, G., Short, M., Brantingham, R, Schoenberg, F. & Tita, G. 2011. Self-Exciting Point Process Modelling of Crime. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106, 100-108.

Moses, L.B. & Chan, J. 2018. Algorithmic Prediction in Policing: Assumptions, Evaluation and Accountability. Policing and Society, 28,806-822.

Newell, A. & Simon, H.A. 1972. Human Problem Soloing. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Quillen, C. 2002. A Historical Analysis of Mass Casualty Bomber. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 25,279-292.

Sabatier, P. & Jenkins-Smith, H.C. 1993. Policy Change and Learning: An Advocacy Coalition Approach. Boulder, CO: Westview.

Sandler, T. 2003. Collective Action and Transnational Terrorism. The World Economy, 26, 779-802.

Schneider, E, Briick, T. & Meierrieks, D. 2015. The Economics of Counter-Terrorism: A Survey. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29,131-157.

Shackle, G.L.S. 1961. Decision Order and Time. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Sugden, R. 2001. The Evolutionary Turn in Game Theory. Journal of Economic Methodology, 8,113-130.

Terr)' v. Ohio 1968. 392 U.S. 1, U.S. Supreme Court.

Tiozek, E. 2019. Al-Qaeda Was Forgotten during the Rise of Islamic State but the Terrorist Group Is More Dangerous than Ever. ABC News. July 31 2019. news/2019-07-31 /al-qaeda-was-forgotten-but-the-terror-group-is-more-dangerous/ 11365230

Tsebelis, G. 1990. Penalty Has No Impact on Crime: A Game-Theoretic Analysis. Rationality and Society, 2,255-286.

Welsh, B.C.& Farrington, D.P. 2009. Public Area CCTV and Crime Prevention: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Justice Quarterly, 26,716-745.

Wilson, M. & Lynxwiler, J. 1988. Abortion Clinic Violence as Terrorism. Studies in Conjlict and Terrorism, 11,263—273.


< Prev   CONTENTS   Source   Next >