The China–US Trade War and South Asian Economies

Table of contentsList of FiguresList of TablesList of ContributorsAcknowledgementsAbbreviationsThe backgroundThe timeline of the trade war so farAssessing the impact of the conflictPrelude to the chaptersReferencesI US–China trade warGlobal economic impact of US–China trade tensionsIntroductionLiterature reviewMethodologyResults and conclusionsNoteReferencesUS–China trade war: A new order or a secular decline of economic outlook?IntroductionUS–China and the share of global tradeThe upsurge of China: the sequential contextUS trade deficit with China: a billion-plus growing marketImplications for the US policyGlobal value chains (GVCs): transition from crisis to opportunityConcluding reflections: new realignment and possible consequencesNoteReferencesUS–China trade war: An analysis of trade relationsIntroductionUS–China trade war: probable reasonsTrade data: some preliminary analysesUSA’s trade with China, South Asia, and South-East Asian countriesUS imports from China, Hong Kong, South Asia, and South-East AsiaUS exports to China, Hong Kong, South Asia, and South-East AsiaChina’s trade with USA, South and South-East Asian countriesChina’s imports from USA, South and South-East Asian countriesChina’s exports to USA, South and South-East Asian countriesConclusionNotesReferencesImpact of US–China trade war on the global economy, free trade, and WTOIntroductionLiterature reviewImpact of US–China trade war on international tradeImpact of US–China trade war on free trade and WTOConclusionNoteReferencesII What is there for the regional economy?US–China trade war: An opportunity for IndiaIntroductionReview of literatureData source and methodologyRevealed Comparative AdvantageConclusionsNotesReferencesImplications of US–China trade war for IndiaIntroductionIndia’s trade storyIndia’s exportsIndia’s importsBroad Economic Classification (BEC)India’s exports and importsIndian trade patterns of intermediate goodsIndian trade pattern of final goodsIndia’s pattern of trade in capital goodsImplications of US–China trade war for IndiaConclusionsAppendixNotesReferencesUS–China trade war: The potential impact on BangladeshIntroductionUS–China trade war unfoldsImpact on BangladeshRelocating factories from China to BangladeshImporting agricultural products at lower costAttracting Chinese investment to BangladeshSteel and ironPolicy recommendation NotesReferencesUS–China trade war: Trade and investment implications for Sri LankaIntroductionBrief background to the US–China trade warLiterature reviewSri Lanka’s trade and FDI performanceImplications of trade war for Sri Lanka’s exports to the USFinger–Kreinin Index (FKI) and Relative Export Competitive Pressure Index (RECPI)Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)SMART modelImplications for investment diversion to Sri LankaEfforts to attract FDI from ChinaConclusionAppendixAcknowledgementReferencesIII Decoding the benefit of preferential trading partnersUS–China trade war and the RCEP negotiations: An analysisIntroductionUS–China economic and trade agreement and RCEP timelineRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreementCurrent engagements in FTAs of US and RCEP-IComparing other FTAs with RCEPTrade and investment relationship of US and China with RCEP-IImportsExportsForeign direct investmentIntegration into regional and global value chainsIntellectual property and innovationThe impact of unexpected eventsNotesReferencesUS–China trade war: Impact on potential trade of their FTA partnersIntroductionResearch methodology and data sourcesData analysis and interpretationsNoteReferencesIV Is it for the establishment of technological supremacy?The US–China technology conflict: The causesIntroductionIs there a casus belli for a trade war?Does China protect against imports?State-owned enterprises The real problem is FDIForced transfer of technology': a casus belli?Has forced technology transfer affected profits?ConclusionNotesAcknowledgementsReferencesTechnology rents and the new Great GameIntroductionHow the data-driven economy sets the stage for conflictThe US–China dynamicsA bit of historyWhat changed?The groundwork is laid for confrontation on the battleground of technologyThe technological triggerThe Great GamePotential policy responsesReferencesConclusionThe impact on the global economyImpact of South Asian regionConnecting the dots for the RCEP and other FTAsTechnology war in the guise of a trade war
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