List of Contributors

Anu Anwar

Anu Anwar is a Fellow at the Asia Center, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University. He is also an Associate in Research at Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, and a Visiting Fellow at the University of Tokyo’s Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia. Before joining Harvard, Mr. Anwar worked as a Research Fellow at the US Department of Defense’s Institute - Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. He was also an Affiliate Scholar at East-West Center, Hawaii. His area of research covers Chinese foreign policy, US-China strategic competition, and Asian geopolitics.

Saurabh Bandyopadhyay

Dr Saurabh Bandyopadhyay is presently working as a Fellow at the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), New Delhi. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU). He has a prominent carrier spanning over 20 years in the field of evidence-based research in development economics. He has published many papers, articles, and reports traversing a wide spectrum of issues linked to agriculture, trade, industry, banking, infrastructure, and institutions. His special interests include study on trade policy and its impact on industrial productivity at the sectoral level for India and the world.

Sanchita Chatterjee

Sanchita Chatterjee is a trade policy and development specialist, currently based in Thailand. She has also served managerial and research roles in her work with several organisations, including an intergovernmental organisation, an Indian conglomerate, diplomatic missions, and educational institutions. Ms. Chatterjee was also engaged in several collaborative projects with the Commonwealth Secretariat, London, the United Nations Conference on Trade & Development (UNCTAD), and the UK Department for International Development. She has extensive experience in strategy development for various sectors, including development professionals, trade negotiators, and non-government organisations.

Rahul Nath Choudhury (Editor)

Dr Rahul Nath Choudhury is a trade economist currently based in New Delhi. Earlier he was associated with the National University of Singapore, as a Visiting Research Fellow. His primary research interest includes foreign direct investments, international trade, e-commerce, digital economy, and technology policy.

Dan Ciuriak

Dan Ciuriak is Director at Ciuriak Consulting Inc. (Ottawa), Senior Fellow with the Centre for International Governance Innovation (Waterloo), Fellow-in- Residence with the C. D. Howe Institute (Toronto), Distinguished Fellow with the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada (Vancouver), and Associate with BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH (Munich). His areas of interest include international trade and finance, innovation and industrial policy, and economic development. Previously, he was Deputy Chief Economist at the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT, now Global Affairs Canada) with responsibility for economic analysis in support of trade negotiations and trade litigation, and served as contributing editor of DFAIT’s Trade Policy Research series (2001-2007 and 2010 editions).

Sunandan Ghosh

Dr Ghosh is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur. Before Joining IIT- KGP, Dr Ghosh was teaching at the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India. His research interests include international economics, economics of regional integration, and applied game theory. He is credited with numerous national and international publications.

Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan

Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan is a senior economist with the University of Washington Seattle, non resident senior fellow with ECIPE Brussels and CSEP New Delhi. He has 16 years’ experience and expertise in economic modelling/data science in many areas such as international trade, energy, agriculture, industry and health, the economic impact of new technologies. He has been a consultant with World Bank, FAO, UN, European Commission, the governments of India and the USA, WHO, PWC, McKinsey, KPMG, several academic and research institutions all over the world.

Daniel Gros

Daniel Gros has been Director at CEPS since 2000. Among other current activities, he serves as an adviser to the European Parliament and is a member of the Advisory Scientific Committee of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and the Euro 50 Group of eminent economists. Previously he has held positions at the IMF and the European Commission and served as an adviser to several governments, including those of the UK and the US at the highest level. He is an Editor of Economic Internationale and International Finance. Daniel holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago and has written several books and numerous articles in scientific journals. His main areas of expertise are the European Monetary Union, macroeconomic policy, public finance, banking, and financial markets as well as trade policy.

Pravin Jadhav

Dr Pravin Jadhav obtained his Ph.D. from the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi. At present, he is Assistant Professor in the Institute of Infrastructure, Technology, Research, and Management Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. He has extensive research experience in both industry and academia. He has published and presented a good number of research papers in the field of business economics, international business, foreign direct investment (FDI), and international trade. He has served as a researcher in planning commission’s working Sub Group on Technology' Intensity in India’s Manufacturing Exports, for 12th Five Year Plan (2012-2017).

Akash Kumra

Dr Kumra is an Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Faculty of Arts, the Maharaja Sayajiroa University of Baroda, Gujarat, India. He holds a Ph.D. from the same university. His research interests include international trade, foreign direct investment, and trade integration.

Smita Miglani

Ms Smita Miglani is associated with ICRIER, New Delhi. She has over ten years of experience in policy-oriented research, working with key ministries of the central government in India. She has also been involved in important studies undertaken for international organisations such as the British High Commission, European Commission, the American Chamber of Commerce, and domestic industry associations. Smita holds an M.Phil. (Economics) degree from Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi and is experienced in the use of econometrics and advanced economic analysis. Her broad areas of research interest are international trade and investment, industry analysis, finance, and infrastructure development. She has published work in reports, working papers, books, and refereed journals. Her research work has contributed to India’s negotiating strategies for bilateral trade and investment agreements and policy reforms decisions at the domestic level.

Lekshmi Nair

Dr Lekshmi Nair is Assistant vice president at Citi, Texas, USA. She holds a Ph.D. in economics with over a decade of experience in research and consultancy. Her skills include frontier research problems in investment, portfolio analysis, and asset pricing. Before this, she was a data science consultant at Toyota Motors North America and was a research fellow at Infinite Sum Modeling Inc.

Dinkar Nayak

Dr Dinkar Nayak is an RBI chair professor at the RBI Endowment Unit, Faculty of Commerce, the Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda, Vadodara, Gujarat, India. Dr Nayak has teaching experience of more than 30 years, and his research interests include international trade, regional economics, and financial economics. A long list of research articles published by various national and international journals and as book chapters go to his credit. He is also an author of several books. He is a key resource person for many Indian universities.

Maria Ptashkina

Maria Ptashkina is an economics Ph.D. candidate at University Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain. Her main research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, and trade policy. She is a former fellow at the International Center for Trade and Sustainable Development and former delegate from the Russian Federation to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum. Maria is a former member of intergovernmental policy research groups on issues related to international trade and investment (the Group of Twenty, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and the One Belt, One Road initiative.

Saon Ray

Saon Ray is Senior Fellow, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi. An economist specialising in industry and international trade issues, her areas of interest include global value chains, technological upgrading of Indian industries, free trade agreements and trade creation effects, technology transfer, foreign direct investment, efficiency and productivity of firms, energy, and climate change-related issues. She has published widely on these issues in books and journal articles. Her latest book, Global Value Chains and the Missing Links: Cases from Indian Industry was published by Taylor & Francis in 2018. Her Ph.D. in Economics from Jawaharlal Nehru University examined the role of intellectual property rights in transferring technology' to developing countries.

Swati Shukla Singh

Dr Swati Shukla Singh is currently employed at the Centre for Research on International Trade, IIFT, Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India Assistant Professor. Swati did her Ph.D. on ‘Regional trading arrangements-A study of ASEAN and India’, from Symbiosis International University. She has research and teaching experience of more than ten years and has published her works widely in several peer-reviewed journals, her field of research interest includes regional economic integration, intra-industry trade, non-tariff measures, and trade facilitation: global value chains, international trade operations, and logistics.

Sachin Sisodiya

He has obtained MA Economics from Delhi School of Economics. He is an awardee of the prestigious Krishna Raj Travel Fellowship for conducting an independent research project. Previously, he worked with the Centre for Regional Trade (CRT), a think tank of the Ministry of Commerce and Industries, Government of India.

Janaka Wijayasiri

Dr Janaka Wijayasiri is a Research Fellow and Head of International Economic Policy Research at the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, an economic think tank. His areas of research interest have been primarily related to trade issues at the bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels. These include issues of policy significance to Sri Lanka in areas covering bilateral and regional preferential trade initiatives, multilateral negotiations under the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and issues related to the export industries in Sri Lanka. He has been part of Sri Lanka’s official delegation representing the academia at regional forums such as Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC). He has also participated in various bilateral trade negotiations with other countries, including China with which Sri Lanka is currently seeking agreements.

Anushka Wijesinha

Anushka Studied in Economics, University of Leeds Business School and University College London; alumnus, Harvard Kennedy School Executive Education. Formerly: Chief Economist, Ceylon Chamber of Commerce; Head of Industry and Competitiveness, Institute of Policy Studies; Special Adviser on Industrial Policy and Youth Entrepreneurship to the UK Minister of Industry and Commerce; consultant to multilateral like World Bank and ADB. Currently, Adviser to the UK Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade and leads the work on the innovation and entrepreneur- ship strategy.

Foreword

In the last three decades, the idea of globalisation and free trade has gained prominence in the world. Despite some drawbacks, globalisation and the free trade regime have been beneficial for economic development, poverty reduction, and enhanced integration among countries. However, in recent years a trade war has started between the USA and its leading trading partners, in particular between the USA and China. The question is whether with this trade war globalisation has started walking in the opposite direction. No one had indeed expected such an extraordinary event until quite recently. With the establishment of the GATT in 1948, and finally, with the advent of the WTO in 1995, trade agreements and rules prevented such a trade war. It is also worth mentioning that WTO rules have compelled even powerful countries to respect international agreements on trade rules. Needless to say that a trade war does not align with global development initiatives such as the 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

What will be the impact of the trade war on the global economy? The effect will depend on how long this war endures and how intense it gets. It can have short-term, medium-term, and even long-term impacts. In the short term, the USA’s introduction of substantial additional tariffs on imports from its leading trading partners, especially China, and vice versa will have a large effect on the volume of bilateral trade between them. That could lead to an increase in exports to the US from certain countries, as the US would then search for cheaper imports from those countries. If the trade war persists in the medium to long term and intensifies with more countries participating, there is a high risk of a global economic recession. This trade war will hurt consumer demand in the world’s major economies, especially in North America and the European Union.

Studies found that all of the world’s major economies would suffer as a result of this trade war. Countries in South Asia, too, will see a decline in exports. As more countries participate in the trade war, the scale of the damage will rise. As the duration and scope of the trade war are not yet visible, it creates a lot of uncertainty around the global trade system. An uncertain trade regime is not conducive to developing countries and to South Asian countries in particular, which over the years have become increasingly trade dependent. When the global trade regime is guided by some rules and principles, like those established through the GATT and WTO processes over the last six decades, these rules and principles benefit all countries in general, and developing countries in particular. Nonetheless, the effectiveness of those rules and principles is at stake with the worsening of the ongoing trade war. The WTO’s position, in particular, is greatly weakened, which could lead to an uncertain global trade regime. If the USA pulls out of the WTO, the global trade regime will probably face the biggest challenge since the Second World War.

Many other parallel scenarios may arise during the trade war. For example, given that Chinese exports to the USA market face escalating tariffs, Chinese firms may consider relocating their factories to other countries to avoid the additional tariff burden. This scenario might contribute to soaring foreign direct investment (FDI) in other developing countries by China. South Asian and Southeast Asian countries will be the primary beneficiaries of this FDI. Nevertheless, much of the success in attracting this Chinese FDIs will depend on the status of the domestic business environment, infrastructural constraints, and political economy issues such as the quality of institutions in the host country and geopolitical relations the host country has with China and other neighbouring countries.

The world cannot afford a full-scale trade war. Re-emphasising the importance of a rules-based global trade regime is now essential. Given the evolving threats and uncertainties in the global trade regime, the need to re-energise the 'WTO is being increasingly felt.

In this context, the publication of this book The China-US Trade War and South Asian Economies is timely. This book very rightly analyses the major issues related to trade war and their implications for the South Asian countries. I wish the book a wider circulation among the academics and policymakers in South Asia.

Professor Selim Raihan

Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Executive Director, South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM)