World Delivered Energy use by Sector

This section discusses delivered energy consumption in the buildings, industrial, and transportation sectors. Energy losses associated with electricity generation and transmission are not included in the consumption numbers. Residential and Commercial Buildings

World residential energy use increases by 1.5 per cent per year, from 52 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 82 quadrillion Btu in 2040, in the IEO2013 Reference case. Much of the growth in residential energy consumption occurs in non-OECD nations, where robust economic growth improves standards of living and increases demand for residential energy. One factor contributing to increased demand in non-OECD nations is the trend toward replacing non marketed energy sources (including wood and waste, which are not fully included in the energy demand totals shown in the IEO) with marketed fuels, such as propane and electricity, for cooking and heating. Non-OECD residential energy consumption rises by 2.5 per cent per year, compared with the much slower rate of 0.4 per cent per year for OECD countries, where patterns of residential energy use already are well established, and slower population growth and aging populations translate to smaller increases in energy demand.

Globally, IEO2013 projects average growth in commercial energy use of 1.8 per cent per year thr ough 2040, with the largest share of growth in non-OECD nations. OECD commercial energy use expands by 0.9 per cent per year. Slow expansion of GDP and low or declining population growth in many OECD nations contribute to slower anticipated rates of growth in commercial energy demand. In addition, continued efficiency improvements moderate the growth of energy demand over time, as relatively inefficient equipment is replaced with newer, more efficient stock.

In the non-OECD nations, economic activity and commerce increase rapidly over the 2010N-2040 projection period, fueling additional demand for energy in the service sectors. Total delivered commercial energy use among non-OECD nations glows by 3.2 per cent per year from 2010 to 2040 in the Reference case. Population growth also is expected to be more rapid than in the OECD countries, resulting in increased needs for education, health care, and social sendees and the energy required to provide them. In addition, as developing nations mature, they are expected to transition to more sendee- related enterprises, which will increase demand for energy in the commercial sector. Industrial

Worldwide, industrial energy consumption glows from 200 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 307 quadrillion Btu in 2040 in the Reference case. The industrial sector accounted for most of the 2008-2009 recession-induced reduction in world energy use in 2009, primarily because the impact of substantial cutbacks in manufacturing was more pronounced than the impact of marginal reductions in energy use in other sectors. Non-OECD economies account for about 86 per cent of the world increase in industrial

World industrial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040

Fig. 2.8 : World industrial sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040

sector energy consumption in the Reference case (Fig. 2.8). Rapid economic growth is projected for the non-OECD countries, accompanied by rapid growth in their combined total industrial energy consumption, averaging 1.8 per cent per year from 2010 to 2040. Because OECD nations have been undergoing a transition from manufacturing economies to sendee economies in recent decades, and have relatively slow projected growth in economic output, industrial energy use in the OECD region as a whole glows by an average of only 0.6 per cent per year from 2010 to 2040. Transportation

Energy use in the transportation sector includes the energy consumed in moving people and goods by road, rail, air, water, and pipeline. The transportation sector is second only to the industrial sector in terms of total end-use energy consumption. The transportation share of world total liquids consumption increases from 55 per cent in 2010 to 57 per cent in 2040 in the IEO2013 Reference case, accounting for 63 per cent of the total increase in world liquids consumption. Thus, understanding the development of transportation energy use is key in assessing future trends in demand for liquid fuels.

Sustained high world oil prices throughout the projection are partly the result of a strong increase in demand for transportation fuels, particularly in the emerging non-OECD economies, where income growth and demand for personal mobility, combined with rapid urbanization, will have the greatest impact on growth in world transportation energy use. In the IEO2013 Reference case, non-OECD transportation energy use grows by 2.2 per cent per year from 2010 to 2040, and the non-OECD share of world demand for transportation liquids reaches 60 per cent by the end of the projection (Fig. 2.9). China, in particular, leads the projected global growth in transportation liquids demand, more than tripling its consumption from 8 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 26 quadrillion Btu by 2040. In 2010, China’s transportation energy use was only one-third of that in the United States; in 2040, China is projected to consume about the same amount of energy for transportation as the United States.

World transportation sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040

Fig. 2.9 : World transportation sector delivered energy consumption, 2010-2040

High oil prices and the economic recession had more profound impacts in the OECD economies than in the non-OECD economies. OECD energy use for transportation declined by 2.0 per cent in 2008, followed by a farther decrease of 3.1 per cent in 2009, before recovering to 0.8 per cent growth in 2010. Indications are that high world oil prices and slow recovery from the recession, with Japan and several key OECD economies falling back into recession in 2012, will mean that OECD transportation energy demand will continue to grow slowly in the near-to mid-term. In addition, demand for transportation liquids in OECD countries will be tempered by policies aimed at instituting strong energy efficiency improvements. Over the projection period, OECD transportation energy use declines by an average of 0.1 per cent per year.

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions

World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040

Fig. 2.10: World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, 1990-2040

World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from 31.2 billion metric tons in 2010 to 36.4 billion metric tons in 2020 and 45.5 billion metric tons in 2040 in the IEO2013 Reference case—an increase of 46 per cent over the projection period. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected for most non-OECD economies under current policies, much of the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions occurs among the developing non-OECD nations. In 2010, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD emissions by 38 per cent; in 2040, they are projected to exceed OECD emissions by about 127 per cent. Coal continues to account for the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection (Fig. 2.10).

Carbon intensity of output—the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of economic output—is a common measured is sometimes used as a standalone measure for tracking progress in relative emissions reductions. Energy- related carbon dioxide intensities improve (decline) in all IEO regions over the projection period, as economies continue to use energy more efficiently. Estimated carbon dioxide intensity declines by 1.9 per cent per year in the OECD economies and by 2.7 per cent per year in the non-OECD economies from 2010 to 2040 (Fig. 2.11).

OECD and non-OECD carbon intensities, 1990-2040

Fig. 2.11: OECD and non-OECD carbon intensities, 1990-2040

Environmental Impacts of Energy Production and Use

At local national and in some cases regional levels the environmental aspects of energy production and use have become the subject of wide ranging debate Environmental awareness and anti-pollution campaigns have affected the formulation of energy policies in many countries and it has recently been realized that nations are not isolated in this respect the actions of one country may affect the environment in a neighbouring one Enviromnental objectives should not however be seen as inconsistent with or as imposing constraints upon energy policy. A balance should be maintained between the need to preserve and improve the quality of environment and the socio-economic goals and needs which depend on the availability of energy. Of the many potential environmental impacts associated with any particular energy technology some should be substantial and others small some important and others of little consequence some of short duration and others with long term effects some might be adverse and others beneficial they might occur in different geographic areas and they might affect different communities in different ways A distinction should be made between the assessment of the nature scale and geographic distribution of the impact and the evaluation which is concerned with its value or importance. For many environmental changes which are identified as impacts the state of knowledge and technology will often may permit a qualitative assessment. Only in a few cases it is possible to evaluate an impact quantitatively. Decisions must ultimately be made on the basis of combination of cost benefit analysis other quantified inputs and qualitative information. Discussions of the environmental impacts of various energy strategies lies in the past tended to focus some attention on short term aspects such as occupational and public health and direct impacts on the physical environment rather than on the long term socio-economic and environmental consequences. However, there is now a growing disposition to analyse these long term impacts which may range from those for which substantial data exist and around which there is a fan degr ee of certainty as to the risks involved to those which are rather speculative in nature for which very little data are available.

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