DEPLOYMENT OF LOW-CARBON ENERGY SUPPLY TECHNOLOGIES
Solar Photovoltaic Technology
In solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, the solar energy directly converts into electricity by means of the solar PV panel. Solar PV technology combines two advantages. On the one hand, module manufacturing can be done in large plants, which permits economies of scale. On the other hand, PV is a very modular technology, and it can be deployed in very small capacities at a time. This quality allows for a wide range of applications of PV technology. Systems can be very small, such as in calculators or off-grid applications, up to utility-scale power generation facilities. In 2017, cumulative solar PV capacity reached almost 398 GW and generated over 434 TWh, representing around 2% of global power output . Utility-scale projects account for just over 60% of total PV installed capacity, with the rest in distributed applications (residential, commercial, and off-grid). The deployment of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants is at a stage of market introduction and expansion. In 2016, the installed capacity of CSP worldwide was 4.8 GW, compared to 398 GW of solar PV capacity. CSP capacity is expected to double by 2022 and reach 10 GW with almost all new capacity integrating storage. The cumulative installed capacity of solar thermal installations reached an estimated 472 GW by the end of 2017. However, the market continued to slow in 2017 for the fourth year in a row, as total annual installations decreased by 9%, owing mainly to a continual slowdown in China. The power generation from solar PV is estimated to have increased by more than 30% in 2018, to over 570 TWh. With this increase, the solar PV share in global electricity generation exceeded 2% for the first time. Figure 17.4 presents the yearwise power generation, forecast, and power generation for Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) by solar PV and CSP.
FIGURE 17.4 Yearwise power generation, forecast, and power generation in SDS for solar PV and CSP.
The cumulative installed capacity of grid-connected wind power in 2017 was 515 GW (497 GW onshore wind power and 18 GW offshore wind power) and wind power generation accounted for nearly 4% of global electricity generation. The onshore installed capacity of wind power is expected to grow by 323 GW in the next 5 years and reach almost 839 GW by 2023 in the main case of the IEA’s Renewables 2018 prediction. China leads this growth followed by the United States, Europe, and India. As a result, the onshore wind electricity generation would increase by nearly 65% globally over 2018-2023. In 2018, global offshore and onshore wind generation reached an estimated 66 TWh and 1150 TWh, respectively. By 2023, global offshore wind cumulative capacity is expected to reach 52 GW by 2023. The deployment will be led by the EU and China. Enhanced policies and faster deployment of projects in the pipeline could result in a further 8 GW. Figure 17.5 presents historical, prediction, and power generation in SDS for offshore and onshore wind energy. In 2018, onshore and offshore wind energy generation increased by an estimated 12% and 20%, respectively; however, capacity addition grew 7% for onshore wind energy and 15% for offshore wind energy.
Bioenergy and Biofuels
Bioenergy accounts for roughly 9% of the world’s total primary energy supply today. Around 13 EJ of bioenergy was consumed in 2015 to provide heat, representing approximately 6% of global heat consumption. Modern bioenergy is also extensively used for space and water heating, either directly in buildings or in district heating schemes. Additionally, about 500 TWh of electricity was generated from biomass in 2016, accounting for 2% of world electricity generation. In the long-term, bioenergy
FIGURE 17.5 Power generation, prediction, and power generation in SDS for wind.
FIGURE 17.6 Historical bioenergy generation prediction and generation in SDS.
has an important role to play in a low-carbon energy system. For instance, modern bioenergy in final global energy consumption increases four-fold by 2060 in the IEA’s 2°C scenario (2DS), which seeks to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 2°C by 2100 to avoid some of the worst effects of climate change. Figure 17.6 represents the yearwise bioenergy generation prediction and generation in SDS. In 2018, bioenergy electricity generation increased by over 8%, maintaining average growth rates since 2011.