Decarbonization of Economies

Is the decarbonization of energy resources a global trend? Along with the global growth of fossil fuels from 970 million tons in 1975 to nearly 12.000 million ton in 2005. the share of carbon-intensive coal declined from 98% to nearly 49% because it ivas replaced by the less carbon-intensive oil and gas (Krausmann et al., 2009). However, when the growth of energy consumption and the shares of individual fuels are combined, the global decarbonizatiou is insignificant. Beneath, consumption of fossil fuels, reneivable energy and low carbon technologies are assessed. The IEA data are used and compared to the World Bank data.

Resource composition

Table 3 shoivs the consumption of fossil fuels, all reneivable energy and applications of low-carbon technologies in 2015, as ivell as growth during 1990-2015, during loiv prices of fossil fuels (1990-2004) and high prices (2005-2015).

Fossil fuels covered about 86% of all resources in 2015 which varied from 94% in Japan to 6% in Ethiopia; herewith, consumption per capita in Ethiopia ivas 104 times lower than in Japan and 213 times lower than in the USA. While the global consumption of fossil fuels grew by 1.8% annual average duiing 1990-2015, it declined by -0.8% in Russia and grew by 6.6% in Bangladesh. High prices of fossil fuels hardly influenced the global consumption of fossil fuels because lower consumption is observed in

Total and annual average growth

Energy consumption

Share renewable energy in total

kWh/capita

Average growth,

bold: Lower growth or larger decline during high fuel prices

% all

Average growth,

bold: Higher growth or smaller decline during high fuel prices

2015

1990-2015

1990-2004

2005-2015

2015

1990-2015

1990-2004

2005-2015

World

22,579

0.6%

0.3%

1.0%

18%

0.2%

0.0%

0.5%

USA

81,330

-0.4%

0.2%

-1.2%

9%

3.4%

2.4%

4.9%

Japan

39,137

-0.1%

1.0%

-1.5%

6%

1.2%

-0.6%

3.7%

EU

34,209

-0.4%

0.4%

-1.6%

17%

4.2%

2.3%

6.8%

Russia

55,763

-0.7%

-1.9%

1.0%

3%

-0.5%

-0.8%

-0.1%

Mexico

16,922

0.2%

0.6%

-0.3%

10%

-1.5%

-2.3%

-0.4%

Brazil

17,617

2.0%

1.4%

2.8%

41%

-0.7%

-0.6%

-0.8%

China

26,213

4.6%

3.8%

5.9%

13%

^t.1%

-3.5%

-4.8%

Indonesia

10,495

2.1%

2.8%

1.2%

37%

-1.8%

-2.4%

-1.0%

Philippines

5,773

0.2%

0.0%

0.4%

28%

-2.3%

-3.3%

-0.8%

India

7,749

2.5%

1.6%

3.8%

35%

-1.9%

-1.2%

-3.0%

Nigeria

8,664

0.4%

0.5%

0.2%

88%

-0.01%

-0.3%

0.4%

Pakistan

5,573

0.8%

1.5%

-0.1%

46%

-0.8%

-1.3%

-0.2%

Bangladesh

2,658

2.6%

1.9%

3.7%

37%

-2.6%

-2.2%

-3.2%

Ethiopia

5,787

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

91%

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.3%

Total and annual

average

growth

Fossil fuels

Total renewable energy including modern one

Applications of low-carbon technologies

TWh

Annual average growth Bold: Lower growth during high fuel prices

TWh

Annual average growth Bold: Higher growth during high fuel prices

TWh

Annual average growth Bold: Higher growth during high fuel prices

2015

1990-2015

1990- 2004

2005-2015

2015

1990- 2015

1990- 2004

2005-2015

2015

1990- 2015

1990- 2004

2005-2015

World

137,092

1.8%

1.9%

1.6%

21,614

2.0%

2%

2%

2,333

7.1%

4%

11%

USA

24,280

0.6%

1.2%

-0.4%

1,763

1.7%

1%

3%

364

3.4%

-1%

10%

Japan

4,701

-0.2%

1.2%

-2.2%

291

2.4%

1%

5%

73

3.1%

2%

5%

EU

15,814

-0.6%

0.4%

-2.0%

2,610

4.5%

4%

6%

530

11.5%

10%

14%

Russia

8,008

-0.8%

-1.9%

0.9%

258

-0.6%

-1%

0%

2

11.2%

21%

-4%

Mexico

2,010

2.0%

2.8%

0.7%

179

0.4%

1%

-1%

49

0.3%

3%

-3%

Brazil

2,034

3.6%

3.4%

3.8%

1,394

2.4%

2%

3%

30

20.9%

9%

39%

China

31,610

5.6%

5.5%

5.6%

2,971

0.8%

1%

1%

537

37.4%

46%

25%

Indonesia

1,746

4.3%

5.4%

2.6%

876

2.0%

2%

2%

201

9 1%

12%

5%

Philippines

385

4.4%

4.6%

4.0%

220

0.6%

0%

1%

112

3.0%

4%

1%

India

7,421

5.5%

4.9%

6.4%

2,477

1.7%

1%

2%

56

29.1%

37%

17%

Nigeria

317

2.7%

3.1%

2.2%

1,304

3.1%

3%

3%

0

0.0%

0%

0%

Pakistan

677

4.0%

5.3%

1.9%

416

2.4%

3%

2%

1

0.0%

0%

0%

Bangladesh

330

6.6%

6.3%

7.0%

108

1.2%

1%

1%

0

0 0%

0%

0%

Ethiopia

35

5.9%

5.1%

7.1%

542

3.0%

3%

3%

0

0.0%

0%

0%

high-income countries but higher in several mid- and low-income countries. The growth of fossil fuels diverged across countries.

Renewable energy, including low-carbon technologies, covered about 14% of the global energy consumption. Biomass was the main resource in many mid- and low-income countries. It covered, for instance, 94% of all energy consumption in Ethiopia that hardly produced fossil fuels and 80% in Nigeria that was a large producer and exporter of fossil fuels. The renewable energy grew at a similar rate to fossil fuels during 1990-2015. The renewable energy growth was high in high-income countries whose total energy consumption declined but slow or declining in mid- and low-income countries where its share in energy consumption was high and the total energy consumption grew. In China, Bangladesh, India and Russia, the growth rates of renewable energy were even below their energy consumption growth. High prices of fossil fuels enhanced the renewable energy growth in high-income countries but rarely in other countries. The growth of renewable energy converged across countries.

Applications of low-carbon technologies covered about 1.5% of the global energy consumption in 2015. In a few countries, a lot of geothermal energy is used: for instance, 18.4% of energy consumption on Philippines, 7.7% in Indonesia and 2.2% in Mexico, according to energy balances in the IEA (2019). Solar and wind energy were applied in 2015 mainly in liigh-income countries (2.9% of all consumed energy in the EU, 1.5% in Japan, 1.4% in the USA) and a few mid-income countries (1.6% in China, 0.9% in Brazil and 0.6% in India). Throughout 1990-2015. those applications grew fast globally because 7.1% annual average and the growth rates were much higher in several countries: 37.4% in China. 29.1% in India, 20.9% in Brazil, 11.5% in the EU and 11.2% in Russia. Duiing those twenty-five years, the global applications of low-carbon technologies increased 6 tunes, even 2816 tunes in China, but the applications were negligible and hardly grew at all in the low-income countries. High prices of fossil fuels invoked faster growth only in high-income countries. The growth of low-carbon technologies diverged across countries.

Trends differ across countries. Fossil fuel consumption was high in high-income countries and declined; it grew in most mid- and low-income countries whose energy consumption was low. The renewable energy consumption was a small energy resource in high-income countries, but grew; it was a large resource in mid- and low-income countries, but declined. Applications of low-carbon technologies grew fast in higli-income countries and a few mid-income ones, but very little in low-income countries. The decarbonization is not the global trend in energy markets.

Carbon dioxide emissions

Assessments of CO, emission confirm that observation. Table 4 shows tons CO, emission per capita and kg CO, emission per kWh energy consumption, which indicate changes in economies and in energy resources, respectively. Also, the World Bank data and IEA data are compared.

A global citizen emitted on average about 5 ton CO, in 2015, but a USA citizen emitted 132 times more than an Ethiopian. The global CO, emission per capita grew during 1990-2015 at a rate similar to the energy consumption. It decreased in the USA and Russia where the emissions were high, as well as in the EU where they were lower. These emissions increased in Japan and in all mid- and low-income countries which reflect the growth of fossil fuels in their energy consumption. Higher prices of fossil fuels invoked lower CO, emissions per capita in all high-income countries but these emissions grew even faster in most mid- and low-income countries because oil and gas are replaced by cheaper, more carbon-intensive coal whilst the biomass consumption decreased. The growth of CO, emissions per capita diverged across countries.

The global CO, emission per kWh was 0.22 kg, but it was 13 times higher in China, where mainly coal is used, compared to Ethiopia, where a lot of biomass is used. Per kWh, these emissions hardly changed globally over the last 25 years, however, there are changes across countries. The carbon-intensity of energy resources decreased in the EU, Russia and the USA but increased in all other countries due to more coal and less biomass usage in energy consumption. Higher international prices of fossil fuels reinforced these trends toward less carbon-intensive resources in higli-income countries but more carbonTable 4. Decarbonization of economies (per capita) and energy consumption (per kWh) measured by CO, emissions.

Total and annual average growth

ton/rapita

Annual average growth Bold: Lower C02 during high fuel prices

kg/kWh

Annual average growth Bold: lower CO, during high fuel prices

WB/IEA data

2015

90-15

90-05

05-15

2015

90-15

90-05

05-15

kWh/cap

CO, t/cap

World

5.0

0.7%

0.4%

1.2%

0.22

0.1%

0.0%

0.2%

4%

12%

USA

16.7

-0.6%

0.1%

-1.7%

0.20

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.5%

3%

7%

Japan

9 3

0.4%

08%

-0.3%

0.24

0.4%

-0.2%

1.3%

-1%

3%

EU

60

-1.2%

-0 3%

-2.4%

0 18

-08%

-0.7%

-0.9%

-6%

-4%

Russia

11.3

-0.6%

-1.8%

0.7%

0.20

-0.4%

-0.4%

-0.3%

-3%

11%

Mexico

3.7

0.2%

0.8%

-0.6%

0.22

0.0%

0.2%

-0.3%

-6%

2%

Brazil

2.7

2.7%

2.0%

3.7%

0.15

0.7%

0.6%

0.9%

6%

25%

China

7.5

5.5%

4.8%

6.5%

0.29

08%

0 9%

0.6%

4%

14%

Indonesia

1.7

4.1%

4.9%

2.9%

0 16

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

3%

-1%

Philippines

1.1

2.0%

2.0%

2.1%

0 19

1.8%

2.0%

1.6%

-5%

7%

India

1.9

3.8%

2.7%

5.4%

0.24

1.3%

1.0%

1.6%

3%

19%

Nigeria

0.5

2.6%

6.6%

-3.0%

0.06

2.0%

5.8%

-3.3%

-3%

47%

Pakistan

09

1.5%

2.3%

0.3%

0 16

06%

0 8%

0.4%

^1%

15%

Bangladesh

0.5

5.0%

4.6%

5.6%

0 IS

2.3%

2.6%

1.9%

-3%

9%

Ethiopia

0.1

3.2%

1.5%

5.6%

0.02

3.0%

1.4%

5.3%

-1%

23%

intensive ones in mid- and low-income countries; Nigeria, where coal and oil are substituted for gas, is an exception. The growth of CO, emissions per kWh also diverged across countries.

Those trends in energy consumption and CO, emissions are confirmed with the World Bank and IEA data. However, difference between the World Bank and IEA data on energy consumption and CO, emissions are noted. A few examples are mentioned, but more differences can be found. Global energy consumption per capita for the year 2015 is about 4% higher in the World Bank accounts than in the IEA but varies across countries from +6% for Brazil to -6% for the EU; this spread is as large as the annual Nigerian energy consumption. The CO, data for 2015 differ even more. The World Bank shows 12% larger global CO, emission per capita than the IEA and even 47% larger for Nigeria. Such differences in the authoritative databases pose risks for agreements on climate change because countries can dispute reports and manipulate data. The World Bank and IEA, herewith, have an important task to provide transparent, reliable, open access data on all issues related to energy.

Global CO, emissions are not reduced but growth rates diverged across countries. CO, emissions are stabilized and reduced in a few countries due to fast growth of low-carbon technologies.

Valorization

Does the valorization of energy sendees evolve across countries and contribute to lower carbon economies? As mentioned, the valorization of energy sendees means higher value added of energy sendees over a period of ten years or more, which means either higher sales of sendees or cheaper purchases of resources. The latter is obseived: An estimate is that the international prices of energy resources decreased as a trend throughout the last century, except for coal, thanks to technological progress in exploration and exploitation (Sliafiee and Topal, 2010). High prices during 1979-1987 and 2005-2015 are considered as deviations from that trend, caused by international cartels (Mondss and Meiners, 2016). In addition, consumer prices of energy sendees increased whenever innovations created breakthrough changes in energy market, such as supply of high calorific fuels, replacement of these fuels by electricity and, recently, introductions of low-carbon technologies and off-grid energy systems. For instance, the purchase price of natural gas by energy sendees in the USA in 2015 was on average US$,005

0.009 per kWh compared to US$,005 0.031 per kWh average sales price of natural gas to households and USS,M5 0.105 per kWh sales price of electricity, all excluding subsidies and taxes (ELA, 2019): the prices in the EU were about twice as high. Higher sales prices of energy sendees along with cheaper purchase of energy resources generate higher value added.

 
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