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Impacts of climate change on river flow and reservoir operation for water use were investigated by using the output from MRI-AGCM3.2S in this study. Although the reproducibility of river flow was not very good in some seasons, the case study showed potential impacts and risks in reservoir operation for water use under the future climate conditions in the two target river basins in Japan. The effectiveness of adaptation options to mitigate impacts of climate change on water supply operation of the Sameura Reservoir in the Yoshino River was also analyzed. Even though the method presented in this chapter can provide a clue for understanding potential climate change impacts on water resources management and adaptation approaches for the river basins in concern, further investigations are needed to derive more reliable results on the impacts of climate change on reservoir operation for water use. Outputs of other climate models also need to be considered for more robust decision-making on adaptation options understanding the uncertainty in the impact assessment.


This work was supported by the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU Program), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan. Hydrological data of the target basins were provided by the Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism and Japan Water Agency. The authors would like to express their sincere appreciation to all of them.


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