I Theories and practice

Industrial structure in China and emission of greenhouse gases

Climate change has been a critical global issue of universal concern in the international community, which has triggered increasing attention and discussions. Climate change refers to the constant and significant changes in temperature, precipitation and air flow in a certain period of time in the climate system with a basic time span of over a decade. For nearly a hundred years, in particular in the past 30 years or so, the earth has experienced climate change fundamentally as gradual warming. The concept of global warming, used as the description of the phenomenon of constantly rising temperature in climate change, is actually more restricted than that of climate change. But in terms of the causal relationship, global warming is the culprit of other phenomena of climate change, whose outcomes are ominous for most of the regions.

Influence of climate change and emission of greenhouse gases

Influence of climate change on the globe

As stated in the 1PCC Forth Assessment Report, in the last 100 years (from 1906 to 2005), the average surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C, which may make the twentieth century the warmest 100 years in the past 1000 years and the latter part of the twentieth century the warmest 50 years in the past 1300 years (Soloman, 2007). There are both natural and anthropogenic factors leading to climate change. However, according to IPCC’s research and report, human activities since the Industrial Revolution, in particular the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) resulting from the exponential consumption of fossil fuels in industrialization by developed countries, are the primary causes of climate change.

Climate change is a complex phenomenon featured with chronicity and uncertainties, as reflected by diversity in its causes, far-reaching and profound impact, changes whose scale and extent are unavoidable and unquantifiable in the short term and hindrance to human activities to put off climate change. Without the implementation of necessary measures, it is expected that by the end of the twenty-first century, the average surface temperature could rise by 1.1-6.4°C. As a result, glacier melting will be accelerated, leading to sea level rise by 0.2-0.6 m, pronouncing changes in ecosystems and island countries and coastal regions suffering from severe natural disasters. The IPCC Assessment Report, bolstered by the latest and more supportive evidence, has further demonstrated that global warming has been an inarguable fact which may result primarily from human activities since the Industrial Revolution. The significant increase in the concentration of CO₂ and methane in the air, which far exceeds that before industrialization thousands of years ago, is largely ascribed to these activities.

With the growing concern of the international community on the growth of human-sourced GHG emissions and their contribution to global warming, promoted by the 1990 IPCC First Assessment Report, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992, which focused on climate change and GHG emission reduction cooperation. In order to clarify the national emission reduction obligations, the Kyoto Protocol, themed on quantified emission cuts, was adopted at the third meeting of the UNFCCC.

Climate change, which is characterized by global warming, has evolved into a typical global environmental problem. It brings a dual effect to the physical and socio-economic aspects and generates a global natural ecosystem, water resources, coastal belts, agriculture and animal husbandry. The series has a significant impact and poses serious challenges to the survival and development of human society. According to Chinese scientists’ predictions, the average annual precipitation in China will increase in the future, and the possibility of extreme weather and climate events in the country will increase. The arid area may expand and the possibility of desertification will increase. The coastal sea level will continue to rise. The retreat of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Tianshan glaciers will accelerate (National Development and Reform Commission, 2007).

First of all, climate change will destroy the earth’s ecosystem. The continuous increase in temperature will have a great impact on the natural ecosystem, undermining the self-stability of the ecosystem, making the ecological environment suitable for animals and plants deteriorate and causing biodiversity to drastically decrease. At the same time, the problem of water resources is outstanding. Some rivers that are replenished with glaciers and melted water are affected by the increase in temperature. The run-off of rivers will increase and spring flood peaks come earlier. It is expected that in the next 20 or 30 years, the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas will accelerate, increasing the probability of flooding and mudslides, causing serious impact on water resources, and the river run-off will gradually decrease, laying the foundation for future water shortages.

Second, climate change will raise sea level. The warming of the sea increases the sea level gradually. As seawater will absorb more than 80% of the added heat of the climate system, the increase in seawater temperature will lead to the expansion of seawater. In addition, the increase in air temperature will accelerate the melting of glaciers. These two factors provide the impetus for sea-level elevation. Since 1978, the Arctic sea ice extent has decreased by 2.7% per decade, while it has decreased by 7.4% in summer. Sea-level rise will exacerbate floods, seawater erosion and other disasters, endangering the infrastructure of island cities, threatening the economic development of coastal areas and even submerging coastal cities with low elevation. The areas most affected by sea-level rise are the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia, including China’s Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region.

Third, climate change will increase extreme weather. Increased climate change has triggered natural disasters such as droughts and floods, which has increased the probability of extreme weather. American scholars have found that the frequency of low-intensity hurricanes has not changed much in the past 30 or 40 years, but the frequency of high-intensity hurricanes has doubled. In 2005 alone, there were two serious meteorological disasters in the world. One was Hurricane Katrina in the USA and the other was Typhoon “Matsa” in China. In most parts of Africa and the Asian continent, more drought and flooding will be experienced. In addition, in the global warming process, abnormal weather with unusually cold weather has also appeared in some areas.

Finally, climate change will have a great impact on human survival. Climate anomalies have increased instability factors in production activities and raised the issue of rising investment costs. Changes in crop sowing time and planting structure will have an impact on agricultural production. By 2050, crop yields in East and Southeast Asia are expected to increase by 20%, while Central and South Asia will decrease production by 30%. The coastal areas have become areas of high incidence of floods and extreme weather, posing danger to human life and survival activities. In the United Kingdom, once the global average temperature rises by 3-4°C, the annual loss due to flood increases from 0.1% of GDP to 0.2 0.4% of GDP.

Composition of global greenhouse gases

With the occurrence of climate warming, regardless of natural factors, the burning of fossil fuels in human activities is an absolute precipitating factor, and the gases that can result in global warming emitted through the combustion of fossil fuels are collectively referred to as greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the 1920s, French scientists discovered the greenhouse effect of nature, that is, some gases in the nighttime atmosphere can absorb and reflect infrared light to the ground, slowing the decline in the surface temperature of the earth at night, and the greenhouse effect reduces the temperature difference between day and night, making the earth more suitable for the survival and development of life. Since the Industrial Revolution, more and more fossil fuels have been burnt and the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere has continuously increased. The balance of the natural global warming effect has been broken and the global climate has become overheated.

There are many kinds of GHGs, among which the six major gases referred to in the International Convention on Climate Change are CO, CH₄, N,O, PFC, SF₆ and HFC, generated mainly from energy activities, industrial production processes, agricultural activities, land-use change, forestry and urban waste treatment. Among them, CO, and N,0 are mainly emitted from the combustion of fossil fuels in energy activities, CH₄ from coal mining and post-mining activities, fugitive methane emissions are produced by oil and natural gas systems and CH₄ is released from biomass fuels, CO, from the production of cement, lime, steel and calcium carbide in industrial production processes and N,0 from adipic acid production are the most important sources of GHG emissions. From the perspective of GHG, the increase of CO, concentration is mainly caused by the use of fossil energy and landuse changes, while that of CH₄ and N,0 concentrations is mainly caused by agriculture.

Table 1.1 shows the proportion of GHGs in major regions of the world in 2011. It can be seen that on a global basis, CO, accounts for 74% of GHG emissions, followed by CH₄ and N,0 gases. In terms of specific countries and regions, Japan and Brazil are special. Japan’s CO, emissions account for 93% of the total GHG emissions, which is much higher than the world average. Brazil's CO, emissions account for a relatively small proportion, representing only 39% of the country’s GHG emissions. In addition, the proportion of methane is higher than that of other countries, reaching 35%, which requires additional attention in reducing GHG emissions. China’s GHG emissions are similar to those of the USA, the European Union and South Africa. Among them, CO, accounts for 86%, followed by CH₄ and N,0, and fluorine-containing gases.

Table 1.1 Ratio of greenhouse gas emissions in major regions of the world

Note. The EU consists of 28 member states. If there is no special remark, the same definition applies.

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT 2.0.

According to relevant data, the global CO₂ concentration increased from 280 ppm before the Industrial Revolution to 379 ppm in 2005. The CH₄ concentration increased from 715 ppb (1 ppb - 10’) before the Industrial Revolution to 1774 ppb in 2005, and the N,0 concentration increased from 270 ppb before the Industrial Revolution to 319 ppb in 2005. It is mentioned in the Stern Review that even if the annual discharge rate remains unchanged, by 2050, the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere will be double what they were before the Industrial Revolution, reaching an equivalent of 550 ppm of CO₂. However, with investment in the construction of high-carbon infrastructure in different countries and increasing demand for energy and transportation, the rate of GHG emissions will increase rather than remaining unchanged. It is expected that by 2035, it will reach a level of an equivalent weight of 550 ppm of CO,. According to this development and gas emission levels, it is inferred that there is at least 75%, or even 99% of probability that the average global temperature will increase by over 2°C.

In summary, as the most important representative of GHGs, CO, emission quantity should have and already has become one of the targets of regular publicity by governments, scholars and the public. In view of the timescale required to remove CO, in the atmosphere, past and future artificial CO, emissions will cause the earth’s warming and sea-level rise to last more than a thousand years (Qin, 2008). Therefore, it is necessary to use CO, emissions as the primary control target to formulate strong and effective emission reduction policies and measures. If necessary measures to prevent and reduce emissions cannot be adopted as soon as possible, sustained climate warming will cause incalculable damage to social production and human life.

Carbon emission of major countries of the world

According to the estimates of the World Resources Institute, from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in 1850 to 2011, most of the current GHGs in the atmosphere are a result of emissions from developed countries. Table 1.2 shows the comparison of GHG emissions in major countries of the world. The USA and the European Union ranked first and second, respectively, in cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2011. In retrospect of the development history of Western developed countries represented by the USA and the European Union, it can be clearly seen that in the early days of the Industrial Revolution, developed countries took advantage of their first-mover advantage to take the lead in the period of rapid urbanization and modernization, and realized domestic construction of infrastructure, accumulation of social wealth and high degree of modernization of the social economy, thus entering the era of post-industrialization. At the same time, however, it also consumes a large amount of fossil energy and emits a large amount of GHGs.

According to Table 1.2, China ranks third in cumulative CO, emissions between 1850 and 2011, which is approximately 10.8% of global cumulative emissions, far less than the 27.7% and 25% of the USA and the European

Table 1.2 Comparison of greenhouse gases in major countries of the world

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT 2.0

Union. China’s modernization construction began in the late 1980s. Given that China is still in a stage of rapid socio-economic development, the rate of energy consumption and GHG emissions has increased. In 2011, China’s total GHG emissions reached 9 billion tons, positioning itself as the country with the largest total emissions, which accounts for 28% of the world's total. China’s per-capita emissions also reached 6.7 metric tons per capita, exceeding the world average (4.6 metric tons per capita). It is expected that China’s GHG emissions will grow rapidly by 3% between 2012 and 2020. Under the requirements of eradicating climate change and controlling GHG emissions of the time, China is still confronted with the heavy task of reducing emissions.

Because fossil fuel combustion is the main source of GHG production, the energy consumption sector is the central source of carbon emissions in various countries and regions. Therefore, in-depth investigation of GHG emissions at the energy consumption sector level is an intuitive and effective means to facilitate the clear direction of high-energy and high-emissions sectors and can help control the GHG emissions process and focus on the issues. Table 1.3 shows the levels and proportions of CO, emitted by different sectors in major countries of the world in 2011. In particular, carbon emissions of the major sectors within the energy sector, including power heating, manufacturing and construction and transportation, are elaborated in detail.

In terms of the total amount, China’s GHG emissions in 2011 are much higher than those of other major economies, which are 1.7, 2.5, 7.5, and 4.9 times the carbon emissions of the USA, the European Union, Japan and India, respectively. From the perspective of the sector structure of GHG emissions, the major source of emissions is the combustion of fossil fuels, accounting for more than 80% of the total. For instance, 81.4% of China’s GHGs are caused by the burning of energy. Japan has the highest proportion, which takes up as high as 99.6%. In addition, 90.3% of the US GHG comes from energy use. The proportion for the EU and India is 81.2% and 80.7%, respectively. Among the other sources of emissions, industrial production processes in China and Japan also contribute significantly to GHG emissions. The agricultural sector in the USA, the European Union and India is the second largest source of GHG emissions. Changes in land use and forestry can often reduce GHG emissions. For example, in Japan, its mitigation contribution has reached 11.4%. In the USA and the European Union, the figure is also above 6%, and India’s forestry carbon sink also contributes 5.4%. China’s land use and forestry has comparatively less pronouncing effect on reducing GHG emissions, accounting for only 2.8% of total emissions.

Further observation of the internal composition of energy utilization departments in various countries can also reveal the differences among countries. In China's energy combustion and utilization, the main source of emissions comes from the electricity and heating sector, which contributes 41.4% of the country’s GHGs, while manufacturing and construction contributing 24% of the total national emission. Transportation, other fuels and

Table 1.3 Comparison of sector emissions of greenhouse gases in major countries (2011)

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT 2.0.

fugitive emissions only take up a small proportion. The proportion of the largest emission-using sectors in other major countries is similar to that of China, with the largest contribution from the electricity and heat conversion sectors, but the emission composition of the manufacturing, construction and transportation sectors is quite different. For countries such as the USA and the European Union, the transport sector contributes more than that of the manufacturing and construction industries. Although emissions from the manufacturing and construction industries rank the second in energy-use sectors in Japan and India, emissions from transportation and other fuels cannot be taken for granted as well.

Comparison of energy structure of major countries

It is pointed out in the 1PCC report that fossil fuel combustion is the main cause of CO, emissions from GHGs, while most non-fossil energy sources are clean-energy types, the use of which does not produce carbon emissions. Therefore, the use of energy in different regions will be instrumental in tracing the origin of carbon emissions. Table 1.4 shows the structure of energy consumption in major regions of the world in 2012, which distinguishes whether energy types are used as fossil energy and subdivides fossil energies into three categories: crude oil, natural gas and raw coal.

The comparative results show that China has a prominent feature in energy utilization structure, with China’s energy consumption structure dominated by the use of raw coal. As the distribution of resources within the territory of China is characterized by “rich reserves of coal, limited oil and lack of natural gas,” resource endowment under the distribution of these natural resources directly leads to the fact that China’s energy use is strongly dependent on

Table 1.4 Energy consumption structure of major countries (2012)

Data sources'. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013.

the development and utilization of coal resources, whose dependence is much greater than in other parts of the world. The proportion of non-fossil energy used in China is less than 10%, which is quite different from those in Europe, America and Japan.

India and South Africa have similar energy structures with China, which is dominated by the use of raw coal as the main energy with a relatively small proportion of non-fossil energy and a relatively high use of oil and natural gas. When the energy structure of the USA, Japan and the European Union is compared, it can be seen that energy structures of Europe and the USA appear to be more balanced. In particular, the utilization rate of non-fossil energy in the EU is higher and has exceeded the proportion of raw coal utilization, revealing that the economic development in the EU region is experiencing a relatively clean production model. The energy use structure dominated by the use of coal in China is bound to undergo changes so as to gradually eliminate high-pollution, high-emission pollution-type fossil energies while increasing the importance of greater use of clean energy.

Differences in energy use structure are instrumental in understanding the possible role of various regions in GHG emissions. In particular, the proportion of non-fossil energy use will directly explain the efforts and progress made in cleaner production and sustainable development in the region. However, given the large differences in carbon emission factors of various energy sources that are burned, the internal use structure of fossil energy cannot directly relate to CO₂ emissions, and further attention must be paid to the actual total carbon emission data based on the conversion and calculation of the carbon emission factors of various energy sources.