Quantitative assessment of CO2 emissions from China’s production sector

According to the “National Climate Change Initial National Information Bulletin” of the People’s Republic of China, the CO, emissions from fossil energy activities in China were 2.795 billion tons in 1994, of which the industrial sector accounted for 44.36%, the energy processing and conversion sector 34.42%, and the transportation sector 5.94%. For example, agriculture, residential life, and service industries account for 15.42% (National Development and Reform Commission, 2004). According to data from the World Resources Institute in 2007, of the 6.038 billion tons of CO, emitted from all fossil energy activities, the power and heat sector contributed 48.5%, the manufacturing and construction industry accounted for 28.2%, and traffic accounted for 6.1% (WRI, 2011). It can be seen that China’s industry, especially the energy sector, has become China’s main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the future, in order to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change, China should actively adjust the industrial structure in the national economy. To this end, it is necessary to first objectively evaluate the actual energy consumption and CO, emission levels of various economic sectors and identify CO, on this basis. The main influencing factors of emissions provide the basis for scientifically formulating corresponding climate policies.

In this chapter, six main fossil energy consumption departments for agriculture, industry, energy, construction, transportation, and commerce were selected as research objects. The research period was 1996-2009, and the CO, emissions of each sector will be estimated separately and based on logarithms. The average divergence factor decomposition (LMDI) factorizes the total CO, emissions, and quantitatively calculates the relative contributions of factors such as industrial structure, output scale, sector energy intensity, and energy carbon emission structure. The structure of this chapter is as follows. The first part introduces the Kaya identity decomposition model and calculation methods, the second section constructs related variables, the third section introduces the decomposition of the influencing factors of the total GHG emissions, and the fourth section details the specific industries. Analysis is given in the final part of the conclusion.

Model and methods

The Kaya identities were proposed by Japanese scholar Kaya at the IPCC workshop and are usually used to analyze the driving forces of CO, emissions changes at the national level (Kaya, 1989). The expression is as follows:

Among them, C is the total amount of CO, emissions caused by various types of fossil energy consumption, E total amount of various types of fossil energy consumption, Y total GDP, and P total population. According to our research purpose and data type, we can expand the above formula to get:

where:

Cjj represents the CO, emissions caused by the consumption of the jth fossil energy stone in the /th sector

Y is the sum of outputs of all departments, and Y, indicates the output level of the Zth department

E, represents the total amount of fossil energy consumed by the zth department, Eu is the jth energy consumption of the zth department

5, indicates the proportion of department z to total output used to measure the industrial structure, S, - YJ Y

It indicates the energy consumption intensity of department z. It is used to characterize the amount of energy consumed by departmental units. 4= EJY,

Fjj represents the consumption proportion of energy j in department z, used to characterize the energy structure of the department, fj — EJE,

CCjj denotes the amount of CO, emitted by the yth energy source in sector z. It is used to characterize the carbon emission structure of different energy sources. CCjj = CjEjj

Among them, changes in carbon emissions at the base period t - 0 and current t - T can be calculated as:

Quantitative assessment 113

That is, during the time period 0 - T, the change in CO, emissions can be broken down into five parts: output scale effect (SCy), industrial structure efficiency (AC ), sectoral energy intensity effect (AC^), energy structure effect (&Cfiiel), and energy carbon emission coefficient effect (AC.^ j.

Among them, 0C , 0C ,0C„ 0C. „ and 0C . can be calculated by the f ’ y’ st)'1 inf flier coef J

following formula:

It is defined as the logarithmic mean of CO, emissions from the base period (/ = 0) to the year T, that is:

Variable construction and statistics

Department choice, research period and source of data

Because the statistics department did not publish the CO, data of different industries, it is necessary to estimate the terminal fossil energy consumption of different departments. The existing China Energy Statistics Yearbook involves three types of statements for the physical energy consumption of theindustrial sector. The first is the energy balance sheet over the years, including the conversion of 20 different energy products (of which 17 are fossil energy sources): volume, loss, and terminal consumption in seven sectors; second, a balance sheet for 11 energy products (of which ten are fossil energy sources), also involving seven sectors; and third, end-use energy consumption in industrial subsectors, which announced 20 kinds of end-use data of energy products in 39 industries. It should be noted that primary energy, such as coal, converted by the power generation sector during the power generation process is not included in the end-use of the power generation department itself, but is reflected in the “processing conversion” section of the energy balance sheet. The CO, generated from energy activities such as processing and conversion of energy (such as thermal power generation and heating) is added to the electricity sector. In addition, in order to compare with the estimation data of foreign authoritative organizations, we will include electricity, gas, and water in the industrial sector. The production and supply industries are listed separately as the “energy conversion sector,” and their energy consumption and corresponding CO, emissions are estimated based on the “end energy consumption of industrial sub-industries (physical quantity),” and will be the “China energy balance sheet over the years.” The amount of process conversion used for thermal power generation and heating in the table is adjusted to the energy consumed by the energy conversion sector. Correspondingly, the industrial sector has reduced the corresponding energy consumption of the electricity, gas and water production and supply industries.

Based on the availability of data and the comparison of calculation results, the study period was finally determined to be 14 years from 1996 to 2009. The department selected six major economic sectors that consume fossil energy:

Agriculture: the primary industry, or agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy

Industry: with mining and manufacturing, excluding electricity, gas and water production and supply included

Construction industry: the construction industry in the secondary industry

Transportation: with transportation, warehousing and post and telecommunications included

Business: wholesale and retail trade in the tertiary industry, accommodation and catering

Energy sector: mainly referring to the electricity, gas and water production and supply industries that use fossil energy to generate electricity and produce heat. It does not include primary energy production departments such as coal mining.

The economic output data of each department comes from the “industry added value” in the China Statistical Yearbook of the past years, but only includes the data after 2004. Only the aggregated data of the industry were

Quantitative assessment 115 released in 1996-2003, and the mining industry was missing industrial added-value data for manufacturing and electricity gas and water production and supply industries. Through the inquiry of the China Economic Net, we obtained the added value of all state-owned and non-state-owned industrial enterprises above a designated size during this period. As a result of several major changes in the statistical standards of the Chinese industrial sector, for example: statistical accounting for independent accounting companies before 1998, in 1998-2005, the caliber became all state-owned and non-state-owned with an annual main business income of more than 5 million yuan. Industrial enterprises included 2007-2010 caliber industrial enterprises with a business income of more than 5 million yuan. For data consistency, we adjusted the industrial sector’s share of the industry in the current year and multiplied by the industrial added value data for this period. Afterwards, according to the above-mentioned departmental setup, the industrial added-value of the production and supply of electricity, gas, and water was solely used as the energy sector output, and it was removed from the industry accordingly. The output deflator for each sector is based on the GDP index and triple industrial value-added index issued by the China Statistical Yearbook. The industrial added-value of the power sector is based on industry-based industrial products. The price index was deflated. Finally, the economic output of all departments was converted to a constant price in 2005, with a unit of 100 million yuan.

Energy consumption and CO2 emission estimates

According to the average calorific value of the 17 fossil energy sources, they are converted and summed into standard coal, and divided into three categories according to their characteristics: coal-based fuels, petroleum-based fuels, and natural gas fuels. For different energy product classification standards and discount coefficients, see Table 5.1.

GHG emissions are generally measured through fossil energy consumption. According to the preparation method of GHG inventories in the “Initial National Information on Climate Change in China”, the GHG emission coefficients of different fossil energy consumption published by the IPCC, and the low calorific values of different fossil energy sources in China published in China Energy Statistical Yearbook, CO, emissions from fossil energy consumption activities can be calculated according to the following formula:

Here, C denotes the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions; j denotes different fossil energy fuels; Ef is the total energy consumption of various industries; CC denotes the default CO, emission factor, the unit is kg COJ kilocal; Dt denotes China energy, the average low calorific value of the product.

Table 5.1 Fossil energy product classification standard, folding coefficient and CO, emission coefficient

Type of energy products

Name

Unit

Converting standard energy factor (million tons of standard coal)

CO, emission coefficient (million tons of CO,)

Type of coals

Raw coal

Ten thousand tons

0.00714

0.01980

Washed coal

Ten thousand tons

0.00900

0.02495

Other coal washing

Ten thousand tons

0.00525

0.00792

Briquette

Ten thousand tons

0.00600

0.02042

Coke

Ten thousand tons

0.00971

0.03048

Coke oven gas

One hundred million cubic meters

0.05930

0.07430

Other gases

One hundred million cubic meters

0.02880

0.02322

Other coking products

Ten thousand tons

0.01107

0.02693

Type of petroleum

Crude oil

Ten thousand tons

0.01429

0.03070

Gasoline

Ten thousand tons

0.01471

0.02988

Kerosene

Ten thousand tons

0.01471

0.03083

Diesel

Ten thousand tons

0.01457

0.03163

Fuel oil

Ten thousand tons

0.01429

0.03239

Liquefied petroleum gas

Ten thousand tons

0.01714

0.03169

Refinery dry gas

Ten thousand tons

0.01571

0.02651

Other petroleum products

Ten thousand tons

0.01310

0.03070

Natural gas energy

Natural gas

One hundred million cubic meters

0.13300

0.21867

in kcal/kg or kcal/m3. Among them, CC^D, is the CO, emission factor. The CO, emission factors for various energy sources are shown in Table 5.1.

 
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