Further investigation into different industries

The following six industries will be examined separately to identify the main influencing factors and time trends of GHG emissions from the different industries. The specific decomposition data can be found in Table 5.2.

Factors influencing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions

From the perspective of agricultural fossil energy-related GHG emissions (see Figure 5.10), the expansion of agricultural production scale is the main factor driving CO, emissions, while industrial structure and energy intensity are the two most important emission reduction channels. Among them, the emission reductions caused by the continuous decline in the proportion of agriculture in the national economy have been increasing year by year, while the intensity of energy consumption has fluctuated greatly. During the period of heavy chemical industry in 2002-2005, the energy efficiency has declined, but it has been boosted. After the GHG emissions, the energy intensity effect has gradually exerted a large effect due to the implementation of the energy

conservation and emission reduction strategy, and has surpassed the industrial structure effect and become the most important way to reduce emissions. The energy structure effect has also manifested differently in different periods. Before 2002, the optimization of agricultural energy structure slowed down some CO, emissions, but the impact was small. In 2007 and 2008, there was even a positive effect on CO, emissions.

It is worth noting that CO, caused by fossil energy consumption is only a part of agricultural GHG emissions, and a larger part of the source of emissions comes from methane and nitrous oxide from agricultural production, according to China’s submission to the United Nations. According to the data of the initial national climate change report, methane and nitrous oxide produced by agricultural activities account for 50.15% and 92.47% of the national methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively, and agricultural GHG emissions account for 17% of the total national GHG emissions. Therefore, the analysis of agricultural GHG emissions should not be limited to the consumption of fossil fuels, but also should include the production of agricultural products and livestock products.

Factors influencing industrial greenhouse gas emissions

The factors affecting industrial GHG emissions mainly include output scale effect, energy intensity effect and industrial structure effect. Figure 5.11 describes the absolute contribution of each influencing factor. Among them,

Decomposition of factors affecting GHG emission in industry (1996— 2009, unit

Figure 5.11 Decomposition of factors affecting GHG emission in industry (1996— 2009, unit: million ton)

Quantitative assessment 131 the continuous expansion of the industrial economy has led to a large number of GHG emissions, which is the main reason for the increase of industrial GHGs. At the same time, the proportion of the industrial economy in the national economy has further increased the CO2 emissions from the internal energy efficiency of the industrial sector. The continuous improvement has played a positive role in slowing down GHG emissions. However, in 2003-2005, due to the large investment in heavy chemical industry, the intensity of energy consumption did not fall. In addition, due to the special application of industrial technology, it is not possible for short-term internal conversion of fossil energy types, so the impact of energy structure effects is small, but the improvement of energy quality has contributed to the positive effects of carbon emission coefficient effects in some periods, such as the use of lower carbon content energy products in 2007. The effect of the carbon emission coefficient is greatly reduced to reduce CO, emissions.

On the whole, in order to control industrial GHG emissions, the main approaches rely on the control of current industrial production scale, adjustment of the proportion of industrial GDP and further improvement in energy efficiency. In addition, low carbonization of energy consumption in industrial production should be improved.

Factors influencing construction greenhouse gases emissions

As shown in Figure 5.12, among the factors affecting the GHG emissions of the construction industry, the scale effect is also one of the main drivers of

the increase in CO2 emissions, while the industrial structure effect fluctuates, showing a positive effect after 2005. It shows that due to the booming development of the real estate industry, the proportion of the construction industry has increased and the CO, emissions have been promoted. In addition to some years, the energy intensity effect mainly shows strong GHG mitigation effects, energy structure effects and carbon emissions. The coefficient effect also helps to control CO, emissions, but the impact is small.

It should be noted that in the consumption of residents, part of the GHG emissions are also related to the construction industry, such as building heating, etc. Buildings using energy-saving and environmentally friendly technologies cannot only effectively reduce GHG emissions during the construction process, but also in the building itself, so the construction industry needs to be analyzed globally from the perspective of product life cycle. From the perspective of the direction and size of the sector’s own GHG emissions, it is necessary to control the scale and proportion of the industry on the one hand, and actively exert energy intensity efficiency and improve energy efficiency on the other hand.

5.4.4 Factors influencing greenhouse emissions in transportation

Figure 5.13 depicts the distribution of major influencing factors for GHG emissions from the transport sector during 1997-2009. It can be seen that the expansion of the scale of the transportation industry is the most

important cause of the increase of GHG emissions. Among the factors controlling CO, emissions, the energy intensity effect and the industrial structure effect have played a positive role. In particular, energy consumption intensity rebounded between 2002 and 2004, which boosted GHG emissions, illustrating a relatively significant negative effect in other periods. In comparison, the industrial structure effect fluctuated, and the proportion of transportation in GDP increased before 2002, after which 2004 and 2005 were excluded. Decline in the proportion of the transportation industry has effectively reduced carbon emissions. In addition, improvements in fossil fuels have had negative effects at all times, but they have less impact than other factors.

It should be noted that in China’s existing energy statistics, there is a certain difference between the statistics of the transportation sector and the definition of the IPCC. The transportation industry in China’s energy balance table only examines the consumption of transportation enterprises and does not include private transportation or the transportation tools of various departments, while the IPCC includes the consumption of the transportation sector including the whole society transport vehicles, and separates the aviation, road, railway, water transport and pipeline transportation industries to carry out mobile source GHG emissions. It is estimated that there may be some errors in the factor decomposition, but in general, the main ways to control the GHG emissions of the transportation industry should include: controlling the scale and proportion of the industry, improving fuel efficiency and clean energy.

Factors influencing greenhouse gas emissions in business

The breakdown of the factors affecting commercial GHG emissions is shown in Figure 5.14. It can be seen that the scale effect is also the main factor driving the increase of GHG emissions. In addition, in most periods, the corresponding proportion of CO, emissions is also caused by the increase in the proportion of economy scale, but its effect is lower than the size effect; from the perspective of mitigating CO,, the energy intensity effect is the main factor controlling GHGs, except for 2004 and 2009, all of which have negative effects and their effects. It is very strong. In some years, such as 2008, it even surpassed the sum of scale effect and industrial structure effect, and caused the total amount of emissions in that year to decline. As most of the business uses secondary energy or natural gas, its energy structure changes and effects are not significant.

In general, in the future, China’s industrial structure will gradually become excessive to the tertiary industry. Therefore, the scale of business development and the proportion of industry will continue to rise. These two effects will promote the further increase of greenhouse gases, thus reducing GHG emissions depends primarily on the improvement of energy efficiency and further optimization of energy structure.

Decomposition of factors affecting business GHG emission (1996-2009, unit

Figure 5.14 Decomposition of factors affecting business GHG emission (1996-2009, unit: million ton)

Factors influencing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector

The pattern of GHG emissions in the energy sector is quite different from that of other industries. It can be seen from the decomposition of Figure 5.15 that the expansion of energy production and conversion industry scale is one of the reasons for promoting CO, emissions. Another major factor is the energy intensity effect, which is equivalent in size and scale effect, even in some years. The size effect of the scale shows that in the energy sector, energy efficiency has not only improved, but also tends to deteriorate, and further accelerates CO, emissions. Among the factors affecting the control of GHGs, industrial restructuring has played an active and more significant effect, due to the decline in the proportion of GDP in the energy sector, has greatly slowed down CO, emissions due to scale expansion and efficiency degradation. In addition, energy structure effects and carbon emission coefficient effects have been presented in most years as positive effects, which indicates that in the energy sector the proportion of high-carbon traditional fossil energy is increasing, which has intensified GHG emissions to some extent.

As the energy sector, especially the power production sector, is the main source of GHG emissions in China, it is necessary to pay close attention to the industry, focusing on controlling the production scale of China’s electricity,

Decomposition of factors affecting GHG emissions in the energy sector (1996-2009, unit

Figure 5.15 Decomposition of factors affecting GHG emissions in the energy sector (1996-2009, unit: millions of tons)

and working to improve the utilization efficiency of primary energy to secondary energy conversion, reducing losses during grid transmission and distribution, and optimizing the proportion of clean, low-carbon energy in the power generation structure.

Conclusion

Based on the extended Kaya equation, this chapter decomposes CO, changes into economies of scale, industrial structure effects, sectoral energy intensity effects, energy consumption structure effects, and energy carbon emission coefficient effects. The six major industrial sectors of agriculture, industry, construction, transportation, commerce and energy sectors in China were selected for research purposes in 1996-2009, and the corresponding CO, panel data series related to economic output, energy consumption and fossil energy were constructed. On this basis, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) is used to decompose the total CO, emissions. The main research conclusions include the following.

  • 1. In 2009, the six major economic sectors collectively emitted 6,410 million tons of CO,, of which the energy sector accounted for the largest emissions, accounting for 51% of all emissions, and the energy sector, industry and transportation sectors accounted for 97% of all emissions.
  • 2. In addition, 3,596 million tons of CO, emissions were added between 1996 and 2006. Among them, the increase in economic output is the main reason for the increase in CO, emissions, with a contribution rate of 140%; industrial restructuring and improvement of departmental energy efficiency. To a certain extent, CO, emissions are suppressed, and their relative contribution rates are -31% and -7.6%, respectively, but not enough to offset the scale effect of output; energy structure and energy carbon emission effects also slow down GHG emissions, but the impact is slight, and the contribution rate is only-0.31% and-1.4%, respectively.
  • 3. In the future, in order to reduce GHG emissions, it is necessary not only to understand the influencing factors, but also to grasp the relative influence of various industries. It is necessary to focus on the speed of economic expansion of the industrial, energy and transportation industries, adjust the proportion of the industrial economy to the national economy, optimize the proportion of other industries, and further promote the energy sector and industrial energy efficiency, and improve the use of clean energy.

Note

1 This chapter is the revision of Wei, C. & Yu. D. J. (2013) Effect study of the industrial structure of GHG emissions in production industries, Industrial Economy Research, 1.

 
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