Quantitative evaluation and analysis of CO2 emissions in China’s industrial sector

Chapter 5 mainly quantitatively evaluates the impact of six major productive industries on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a macro perspective. The conclusions show that industry is an important source of GHG emissions, and the expansion of the industrial sector and the proportion of industry's economic growth continue to rise. CO, emissions have a positive feedback effect. In addition, the improvement of energy efficiency within the industrial sector has partially mitigated GHG emissions. This chapter will focus on the industrial sector. Specifically, it is based on 33 sectors of the mining and manufacturing industries. Based on its fossil energy terminal consumption, it estimates the CO, emissions of various sectors between 1996 and 2009, based on the logarithm. LMD1 is used to decompose the changes in CO,, thereby identifying the laws of emissions within various sectors of the industry, the influencing factors of CO, emissions, and the sectors that need to be focused.

Because the model and method used in this chapter are the same as in the previous chapter, they are not introduced separately. The structure is as follows: the first section constructs the corresponding variables and introduction data, the second section describes the economic growth, energy consumption and CO, emission characteristics of the industrial sector, the third section discusses the decomposition results, and finally there is the conclusion.

Variable structure and data

Estimates of CO, emissions from China’s industrial sector are mainly based on the terminal fossil energy consumption of various sectors. Some sectors also have non-fossil energy-related GHG emissions in industrial production projects, such as cement, lime, steel, and calcium carbide production processes. In addition, some energy activities can also produce non-combustible GHGs, such as methane emissions from coal mining and post-mining activities, and methane emissions from oil and gas systems. Due to the lack of detailed data in the existing statistical system, it is impossible to accurately estimate this part of the emissions. The estimated GHGs here are mainly CO, generated during the burning and consumption of fossil energy. The fossil energy terminal consumption data of various departments are derived from the Report on Industrial Sub-industry Terminal Energy Consumption in the China Energy Statistics Yearbook, which covers the end-use consumption of 20 kinds of energy products in 39 sectors of industry. This chapter focuses on the mining industry (five sectors) and the manufacturing sector (28 sectors). There are several reasons for not choosing “electricity, gas and water production and supply industries”: first, the GHGs generated by the electricity and heat sectors have been divided into two parts, one is to convert primary energy such as coal and oil into GHGs emitted from secondary energy, and the other is to consume GHGs emitted by fossil energy during the production and operation process. Logically, energy should be converted. Some of the GHGs are included in the sector. Second, other international research institutes use the sectoral method to estimate GHG emissions, and they are also calculated separately as a source of emissions. We have separately used the energy sector as an industry in the last chapter. Research has been carried out, so this chapter excludes it from the industrial sector, focusing on the links between other nonenergy production industries and GHGs. In addition, due to the more detailed use of the industrial sector, in order to carefully analyze the consumption and emission characteristics of different energy products, this chapter divides all fossil energy into four categories: coal, coke, petroleum and natural gas, and according to Chapter 4, the calculation method introduced is to convert different energy products into standard energy sources and estimate the CO, emissions related to fossil energy.

The economic output data of all industrial sectors refer to the China Statistical Yearbook and the China Economic Network database in the past years. The statistical caliber is “the total industrial output value of all state-owned and non-state-owned industrial enterprises above a designated size,” and the missing data in 2004 can be obtained in an economic census yearbook. In the statistical yearbook, the detailed output deflator of the subsector is not published. We refer to the “Industrial Price Index of Industrial Products by Sub-industry,” which includes major categories such as metallurgical industry, coal industry, and chemical industry. The industrial ex-factory price index, based on this information, averaging the total industrial output over the years, finally obtained the output value of all industrial sectors based on the 2005 constant price.

It should be noted that since the National Bureau of Statistics adopted the new industrial industry classification standard in 2003, for some industrial sectors such as “Other Mining Industry,” “Arts and Other Manufacturing,” and “Abandoned Resources and Waste Material Recovery Price Industry,” the data before 2003 are missing. Considering that the above three sectors accounted for less than 0.9% of the industrial economy and CO, emissions in 2003, they have less impact on the overall industrial output, energy consumption and emissions. In total, five extractive industry departments and 28 manufacturing departments were finalized. According to Fisher-Vanden et al. (2004), the division of China’s industrial sector was organized into ten major categories, and the final selected 33 industrial sectors and large subsidiaries. The classification criteria can be found in Table 6.1. The study period is 14 years from 1996 to 2009.

Table 6.1 Classification comparison table of industrial sectors

Major industries

Department code

Sectors

Mining sector

6

Coal mining and washing industry

7

Oil and gas extraction industry

8

Ferrous metal mining and dressing industry

9

Non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry

10

Non-metallic mining and dressing industry

Food and beverage sector

13

Agricultural and sideline food processing industry

14

Food manufacturing

15

Beverage manufacturing

16

Tobacco industry

Textile and leather products sector

17

Textile industry

18

Textile and garment, shoes and hat manufacturing

19

Leather, fur. feather (velvet) and its products

Wood furniture manufacturing

20

Wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, brown, grass products industry

21

Furniture manufacturing

22

Paper and paper products industry

23

Copying of the printing industry and recording media

24

Culture and education sporting goods manufacturing

Petroleum processing industry

25

Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing

Petrochemical industry

26

Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing

27

Pharmaceutical manufacturing

28

Chemical fiber manufacturing

Rubber and plastics products industry

29

Rubber products industry

30

Plastic products industry

Non-metallic products industry

31

Non-metallic mineral products industry

Metal products industry

32

Ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry

33

Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry

34

Metal products industry

Equipment machinery and instrument industry

35

General equipment manufacturing

36

Special equipment manufacturing

37

Transportation equipment manufacturing

39

Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing

40

Communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing

41

Instrumentation and culture, office machinery manufacturing

Main features of the industrial sector in China

Features of industrial production structure in China

In 1996, the total industrial output value of the 33 industrial sectors covered by the sample was 602.25 billion yuan. In 2009, it increased to 479.495 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 17.3%. We first mapped the industrial output value of various industrial sectors between 1996 and 2009 based on ten industrial categories, as shown in Figure 6.1. It can be seen that most industries have entered an accelerated growth period since 2002, especially in the “mechanical equipment industry” and “metal products industry.” In addition, “chemical industry,” “textile industry,” and “food industry” has also grown rapidly.

Figure 6.2 depicts the relative weight and distribution of different sectors in the industrial economy between 1996 and 2009. Heavy machinery industries such as machinery and equipment manufacturing, metal products, and chemical industries account for a relatively high proportion of the industrial economy. These three industries account for more than 58% of the industrial economy, while light industries such as food and textiles are relatively large. Specific to 33 departments, between 1996 and 2009, its top five industrial cumulative GDP were: “communication equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing” (9.96%), “ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry” (8.39%), “transport equipment manufacturing” (7.33%), “chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing” (7.32%) and “electric machinery and equipment manufacturing” (6.22%). The total industrial production value and the proportion of other sectors can be found in Table 6.2.

Characteristics of the energy consumption in the industrial sector of China

In 1996, China’s industrial sector consumed a total of 534.5 million tons of standard coal fossil fuel. In 2009, it increased to 1086.8 million tons of standard coal. The annual growth rate of fossil energy consumption was 5.6%, much lower than the growth rate of industrial output. Figure 6.3 shows the fossil energy consumption of ten industrial sectors. From the time trend, most industrial sectors have relatively stable energy consumption before 2002. Some industries, such as the chemical industry, even experienced a slight decline during this period. However, after 2002, the energy consumption of some industries has risen sharply. It is also the most prominent in the metal products industry, non-metal products industry and chemical industry. From the perspective of departmental distribution, the “metal products industry” has the highest proportion of fossil energy consumption, from 27% in 1996 to 40% of the total fossil energy consumption in 2009. From the perspective of cumulative fossil energy consumption in the whole period, it ranks in the top

Total output value of China’s industrial sector from 1996 to 2009 (unit

Figure 6.1 Total output value of China’s industrial sector from 1996 to 2009 (unit: 100 million yuan, constant price in 2005)

Industry distribution of China’s industrial output value from 1996 to 2009

Figure 6.2 Industry distribution of China’s industrial output value from 1996 to 2009

Table 6.2 Total industrial output value, fossil energy consumption and CO, emissions of the industrial sector during 1996-2009

Departments

Cumulative absolute volume between 1996 and 2009

Proportion of departments (%)

Gross industrial output value (100 million yuan, price in 2005)

Fossil energy consumption (million tons of standard coal)

CO, emissions ( million tons)

Total industrial output value

Fossil fuel consumption

co2 emissions

Aggregate

2,664.955.9

10,109.5

26,004.0

100

100

100

Coal mining and washing industry

66.984.5

436.7

1,168.8

2.51

4.32

4.49

Oil and gas extraction industry

73.781.4

291.5

583.7

2.77

2.88

2.24

Ferrous metal mining and dressing industry

13,497.8

28.3

76.4

0.51

0.28

0.29

Non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry

14.624.2

17.7

47.3

0.55

0.17

0.18

Non-metallic mining and dressing industry

10.691.0

52.4

139.2

0.40

0.52

0.54

Agricultural and sideline food processing industry

12,7099.3

144.6

381.4

4.77

1.43

1.47

Food manufacturing

44.370.4

90.8

243.3

1.66

0.90

0.94

Beverage manufacturing

40.626.3

81.9

222.0

1.52

0.81

0.85

Tobacco industry

33.524.8

20.4

52.8

1.26

0.20

0.20

Textile industry

139.822.4

209.0

560.1

5.25

2.07

2.15

Textile and garment, shoes and hat manufacturing

60.382.6

26.3

67.6

2.27

0.26

0.26

Leather, fur, feather (velvet) and its products

38.892.7

14.9

38.1

1.46

0.15

0.15

Wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, brown, grass products industry

24,157.5

38.3

103.9

0.91

0.38

0.40

Furniture manufacturing

16.047.6

7.0

17.9

0.60

0.07

0.07

Paper and paper products industry

46.949.0

192.3

520.0

1.76

1.90

2.00

Copying of the printing industry and recording media

17.129.1

10.2

25.1

0.64

0.10

0.10

Culture and education sporting goods manufacturing

16.411.4

6.7

16.1

0.62

0.07

0.06

Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing

135,680.1

900.1

2,007.6

5.09

8.90

7.72

Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing

195,050.7

1,661.2

4,168.4

7.32

16.43

16.03

Pharmaceutical manufacturing

510,76.0

65.1

173.9

1.92

0.64

0.67

Chemical fiber manufacturing

28,311.6

77.1

190.5

1.06

0.76

0.73

Rubber products industry

26,528.6

45.9

122.6

1.00

0.45

0.47

Plastic products industry

60,459.2

39.0

98.5

2.27

0.39

0.38

Non-metallic mineral products industry

116,105.4

1,826.1

4,679.3

4.36

18.06

17.99

Ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry

223.498.2

3,153.9

8,568.2

8.39

31.20

32.95

Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry

100.426.3

213.5

551.3

3.77

2.11

2.12

Metal products industry

81,397.8

69.3

182.8

3.05

0.69

0.70

General equipment manufacturing

127,544.5

119.8

328.7

4.79

1.18

1.26

Special equipment manufacturing

78.002.3

77.9

195.7

2.93

0.77

0.75

Transportation equipment manufacturing

195,448.8

105.2

269.7

7.33

1.04

1.04

Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing

165,800.4

43.6

106.1

6.22

0.43

0.41

Communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing

265.433.6

35.1

78.1

9.96

0.35

0.30

Instrumentation and culture, office machinery manufacturing

29,200.7

7.5

18.8

1.10

0.07

0.07

Trends in fossil energy consumption in China’s industrial sector from 1996 to 2009 (unit

Figure 6.3 Trends in fossil energy consumption in China’s industrial sector from 1996 to 2009 (unit: million tons of standard coal)

five. The departments include: “black metal smelting and rolling processing industry” (31.2%), “non-metallic mineral products industry” (18.1%), “chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing” (16.4%), “oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry (8.9%) and “coal mining and washing industry” (4.3%). Accumulated energy consumption and the proportion of other sectors can be found in Table 6.2.

Figure 6.4 is the relative proportion of different fuel consumption in the cumulative fossil energy consumption of different industrial sectors (excluding secondary energy, such as electricity and heat). It can be seen that most industries still focus on coal-based energy, such as food and textile. The proportion of coal consumption in the wood furniture industry and non-metal products industry exceeds 80%; the metal products industry mainly consumes coke fuels, and petroleum fuels are mainly used in petroleum processing industry, chemical industry, rubber plastic products industry and machinery industry. In addition, natural gas consumption in the chemical, mining and machinery manufacturing industries also accounts for a certain proportion.

Figure 6.5 is the trend of consumption structure in China’s industrial fossil energy consumption. It can be seen that the proportion of coal-based fuel in all fossil energy consumption is gradually decreasing, from 55% of all fossil fuels in 1996 to 41% in 2009, but the proportion of coal has rebounded in 2002-2005; the proportion of coke-based fuel consumption is gradually increasing, mainly because the production scale of metal products mainly based on coke consumption has been expanding; the proportion of petroleum-based fuel

Various fossil energy structures in China’s industrial sector (unit

Figure 6.4 Various fossil energy structures in China’s industrial sector (unit: %)

Fossil energy consumption structure of China’s industrial sector from 1996 to 2009 (unit

Figure 6.5 Fossil energy consumption structure of China’s industrial sector from 1996 to 2009 (unit: %)

consumption increased before 2002, but it gradually shrank between 2002 and 2005. It remained stable until after 2005; the proportion of natural gas consumption changed little, staying between 3% and 5%.

Characteristics of GHG emission in the industrial sector of China

In 1996, China’s industrial sector generated 1,405 million tons of CO, emissions due to fossil energy consumption. By 2009, emissions increased to 2,760 million tons, an average annual increase of 5.3%. Figure 6.6 first describes the trend of CO, emissions from ten industrial sectors in China. It can be seen that the trend of GHG emissions in various industries is very consistent with the trend of fossil energy consumption. In 2002, the emissions of most industrial sectors began to rise rapidly, among which the metal products industry was the most prominent. The GHG emissions of the chemical industry, non-metal products industry, mining industry and petroleum processing industry also increased rapidly.

Figure 6.7 shows the industry distribution of industrial GHG emissions in China. It can be found that the metal products industry, the non-metal products industry and the chemical industry are the main sources of industrial GHG emissions. The CO, emissions of these three industries account for 71% of the total industrial GHG emissions. In addition, the proportion of emissions from the petroleum processing industry and mining industry proportion is also high. By department, the top five highest proportions are: ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing (32.9%), non-metallic

CO, emissions of China’s industrial sector from 1996 to 2009 (unit

Figure 6.6 CO, emissions of China’s industrial sector from 1996 to 2009 (unit: million tons)

Industry distribution of industrial CO emissions in China from 1996 to 2009

Figure 6.7 Industry distribution of industrial CO2 emissions in China from 1996 to 2009

mineral products (18%), chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing (16%), petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry (7.7%) and coal mining and washing industry (4.5%). The cumulative CO2 emissions and the proportion of other sectors can be seen.

 
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