Factor decomposition of industrial greenhouse gas emissions in Zhejiang Province
Introduction of method
Changes in GHGs can be decomposed by KAYA identities, so that the relative contribution of factors such as output size, industrial structure, energy
Case study of Zhejiang Province 185 structure, and energy efficiency to GHG emissions can be calculated to identify the most important factors affecting GHGs. An extended Kaya identity can be expressed as:
Here, C, E. and P represent CO, emissions, energy consumption, industrial production and population, respectively; Ctj is the CO, emission of the jth energy of the /th industry; Etj is the jth energy of the /th industry consumption; E, is the energy consumption of the /th industry; Ff is the output of the rth industry; and Y is the sum of all industry output.
Formula (7.2) decomposes the carbon emission changes caused by energy
C, consumption into the following six effects: emission factor effect (—), indus-
trial energy structure effect (~), industrial energy intensity effect (~)> indus-
trial structure effect (y), output scale effect (—) and the population size effect (P).
Based on formula (7.2), the relative contributions of the six effects of GHG emissions changes in industrial sectors above designated size in Zhejiang Province in 2004 and 2008 were calculated. The results are shown in Figure 7.10.
From the perspective of various influencing factors, the energy structure, output scale and population size have positive effects on the increase of GHG emissions, while emission factors, energy intensity and industrial structure show negative effects. From the contribution rate of various factors to the change of GHG emissions, the contribution rate of output scale effect is 155.75%, and then the order of absolute value is: energy intensity effect -30.66%, industrial structure effect -28.35%, population size effect is 6.28%, the emission factor effect is -4.19%, and the energy structure effect is 1.16%. This indicates that the increase in the total industrial output value of the industrial sector above a designated size in Zhejiang Province is the main driving engine for the increase of GHGs in the industrial sector in Zhejiang Province, while the change in the internal energy intensity of the sector and the optimization of the internal structure of the industrial sector in Zhejiang Province have slowed down the GHG increases. In addition, population growth, energy structure changes, and energy product emissions factors also have a certain
Figure 7.10 Relative contributions of factors affecting industrial greenhouse gas emissions from large-scale industries in Zhejiang Province (2008)
impact on GHG changes. A detailed analysis of the relevant factors will be conducted below.
Output scale effect
The rapid development of the industrial economy is the main reason for the growth of greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sector in Zhejiang Province. According to the constant price in 2008, the total industrial output value of industrial enterprises above a designated size rose from 221,154.48 billion yuan in 2004 to 4.103,038 million yuan in 2008, an increase of 85%; while the energy consumption in the same period was from 11,278,540 tons in 2004. Coal increased to 165.597 million tons of standard coal in 2008, and energy consumption increased by only 46.8%. The corresponding increase in GHGs is close to energy consumption, only 45.6%. This shows that the industrial economy is growing faster than the growth of energy consumption and GHG emissions.
Energy intensity effect
The reduction in energy intensity within the industrial sector is an important way to reduce GHG emissions. Industrial energy intensity indicators are generally expressed in terms of the amount of energy consumed per unit of industrial production, which can be used to reflect the energy efficiency of economic activities. On the whole, the energy intensity of industrial enterprises above a designated size in Zhejiang Province has dropped from 5,100 tons of standard coal/100 million yuan in 2004 to 4,000 tons of standard coal/
100 million yuan in 2008. To be specific, the energy consumption intensity of other industries, petroleum processing industries, and non-metal products. The energy intensity of the metal products industry has dropped by as much as 79%, 43% and 38%, respectively, indicating that the energy efficiency of these industries has been greatly improved through the implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction measures, and has played a key role in reducing GHG emissions in the industry. At the same time, however, the energy intensity of some industries will not fall, such as the energy intensity of the mining industry increased by 200%, and the sectors that have a greater impact on industrial GHG emissions, such as the metal products industry, the chemical industry and the power industry. The consumption intensity increased by 17.7%, 16.9% and 16.8%, respectively, in 2004. As the reduction of energy intensity is an important way to reduce GHG emissions, it indicates that the future control of GHGs needs to focus on the energy intensity of sectors of “high-level operation.”
Industrial structure effect
Industrial restructuring is also an important means of mitigating GHG emissions. The effect of industrial restructuring is reflected in two aspects: on the one hand, the reduction in the economic share of the high-carbon sector will promote carbon emission reduction. For example, in the power industry, its GHG emissions account for about 40%, and its share of the industrial economy has dropped from 8.7% in 2004 to 6.7% in 2008, thus slowing down the absolute level of overall industrial GHG emissions; On the other hand, if the proportion of the low-carbon sector in the industrial economy increases, it will also promote GHG emission reduction. For example, the equipment machinery and equipment industry, its GHG emissions only account for about 2% of the total emissions, but its share of the industrial economy rose from 28% in 2004 to 32% in 2008, so it also slowed down to some extent. Therefore, vigorously implementing industrial restructuring and optimizing industrial structure has great practical significance and policy implications.
Energy structure effect
Optimization of energy structure and improvement of energy quality are also important factors affecting GHG emissions. The energy structure effect shows a weak positive effect on the growth of GHG emissions, while the emission factor effect is a weak negative effect, and the sum of the two effects is a negative effect. For different energy products, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy consumption are different. The potential policy implication is that, while ensuring the same amount of energy input, it is possible to adjust and optimize the energy structure to develop clean low-carbon type and even “carbon-free” energy to reduce GHG emissions.
Population scale effect
The population scale effect is also an important factor affecting GHG emissions. From 2004 to 2008, the population of Zhejiang Province increased from 457 million to 0.469 billion. The increase in population will inevitably lead to the expansion of energy consumption. Therefore, the increase in population size has positively promoted industrial GHG emissions in Zhejiang Province. From the perspective of reducing GHG emissions, Zhejiang Province must still firmly implement the family planning policy.
Main conclusions and countermeasures
Considering that in the future, the industrial economy of Zhejiang Province will continue to grow, and the process of urbanization and industrialization will be further deepened, in order to control and slow down the GHG emissions and growth rate of the industrial sector in Zhejiang Province, the following suggestions are proposed.
First of all, we must increase research and development efforts to improve energy efficiency. From an industry perspective, the power sector not only accounts for a high proportion of emissions, but its energy intensity is more than twice that of Beijing and other regions. There is a lot of room for efficiency improvement, so it needs to be given special attention. Departments that are slowing down, such as metal products and mining industries, should strengthen the management of energy intensity. For sectors with high absolute energy intensity, such as the petroleum processing industry and the non-metal products industry, energy conservation should be continued. Discharge policy, speed up the elimination of outdated equipment, introduce advanced technology and equipment, reduce energy consumption per unit of output value, and promote and improve energy efficiency.
Second, we must optimize the industrial structure and accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading. The optimization of industrial structure is very effective in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. It is necessary to focus on those sectors that have a greater impact on GHG emissions and a higher economic proportion, and vigorously implement industrial transformation and upgrading, such as: power industry, metal products industry, petroleum processing industry, chemical industry and other departments. This proportion of the economy does not increase significantly or decrease to a certain extent; on the other hand, it is necessary to accelerate the development of low-carbon industries with low energy consumption, low emissions and high added value, such as equipment machinery and instrument industry, waste resources and waste materials recycling industry, etc. Let the proportion of these industries increase gradually. Low-carbon development of the industrial economy in Zhejiang Province should be promoted by “subtracting” and “adding” the industrial structure.
In addition, we must optimize the energy structure and actively develop low-carbon energy. To curb the trend of high carbonization of energy consumption in the metal products industry, mining industry and petroleum processing industry, we must actively improve the energy utilization structure of the power industry, oil processing industry, textile industry, non-metallic mineral products industry and other sectors with large energy consumption. The utilization of high-quality energy products and clean energy products should be promoted, development and utilization of new energy and renewable energy be accelerated, and emission rate of industrial GHGs in Zhejiang Province be slowed down through low-carbon energy.
This chapter is predicated on the research report “Research into the GHG emissions in Zhejiang Province - analysis of the materials about the second Economic Census” written by Wei Chu. This report was enrolled in the Selected Research Topics of the 2nd Economic Census in Zhejiang Province by the Leading Office of the 2nd economic consensus in Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University Press, 2011.