Prospects of Peace

The prospects of peace have commanded media and public attention (Yarchi et al., 2017). A survey in September 2000, during the presidential election campaign and the final attempts of President Clinton to bring the conflict to a peaceful end, asked Americans what they think is the most important foreign policy facing the new president. Fifteen percent of Americans chose the Middle East peace process, the third highest topic, following only drug trafficking (19%) and international terrorism (17%).²⁸ The events that started a year later shuffled the cards, yet the importance of this topic has never receded in the American public mind.

In earlier periods, Americans were relatively confident that peace can be achieved. For example, in 1955, during the conflict between Israel and Egypt, 48 percent of Americans believed that the two parties can work out their differences peacefully, and only 26 percent thought that a war was inevitable. Following the Suez Canal Crisis in April 1957, Americans were strongly divided about the same question—a third (34%) believed peace could be achieved, a third (36%) believed another war was inevitable and nearly a third failed to offer an answer. A decade later, in June 1967, immediately after the Six-Day War, 70 percent of Americans had confidence in the ability of Israel and Arab countries to work out their differences peacefully. By 1969, during the War of Attrition along the border with Egypt, a smaller majority of 58 percent were confident in the ability of Israel and the Arab countries to work out their differences peacefully.²⁹

This confidence soon deteriorated. Taking a more comprehensive look at the conflict, a Harris poll in 1976 asked Americans whether they believe a total peace in the region can be achieved and how likely it is that Israel would achieve peace with each of its rivals: Egypt, Jordan, Syria and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO).³⁰ Only 22 percent believed that the chances of total peace are positive (excellent or pretty good), compared to 65 percent who believed the chances are negative (fair or poor). Table 4.4 further summarizes the chances of peace between Israel and the four rivals in the 1976 survey. Beyond the limited variance between the four entities, the overall pattern is similar: Americans had little confidence in the prospects of peace between Israel and either party in the region.

The peace process with Egypt only slightly improved the outlook of Americans. In 1978, following Anwar Sadat’s historical visit to Israel, a similar survey shows that 37 percent of Americans believed that there are positive chances for a total peace in the region.³¹ But this positive outlook was short lived: By 1980, only 20 percent thought the same, and the prospects of peace (likely or somewhat likely) with Syria (42%) and with the PLO (29%) took another downturn.³² The only confidence was with a peace with Jordan (73%). It took 14 more years for this peace agreement to materialize.

Since the late 1980s, Americans have been probed regularly whether they believe peace between Israel and the Arab nations will ever be possible. During the period covered in this series, a peace agreement between Israel and Egypt was already in place, and a peace agreement was signed between Israel and Jordan. Public and secret talks with Syria did not materialize to an agreement and the Civil War in Syria halted any additional attempts. The peace negotiations with the Palestinians resulted in the creation of the Palestinian Authority

TABLE 4.4 Prospects of Peace Between Israel and Its Rivals (1976)

with police and domestic responsibilities and the evacuation of Israeli military from highly populated areas in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. In September 2005, Israel unilaterally disengaged from Gaza, evacuating all Israeli citizens from the strip. Yet Israel still occupies Palestinian territory, Israelis live in the West Bank and there are routine violent conflicts between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in Gaza and the West Bank. Given these developments along with the continuing violence, how do Americans see the prospects of Israel and Arabs living together in peace?

We plot responses to this survey item in Figure 4.5 (28 surveys). Throughout the entire period, Americans have been opinionated about this issue (on average, only 4% had no opinion on this issue) but were pessimistic about the prospects of peace between Israel and Arab nations. The only periods of relative confidence that peace can be achieved were in the early 1990s, following the Madrid Conference, and at the turn of the century with the relative push by President Clinton and Prime Minister Barak to advance peace with the Palestinians and with Syria. The failure of these talks gave rise to the Second Intifada, the establishment of a right-wing government in Israel and the near collapse of the

FIGURE 4.5 American Attitudes Regarding Prospects of Peace

Note. N = 28,529 in 28 surveys (national adults).

Lines represent Lowess smoothing lines with a bandwidth of 0.8.

Not displayed in the figure: percent of people who do not know, have no opinion or refuse to answer.

Polling organizations include Gallup (24) and others, each with fewer surveys (4 overall).

TABLE 4.5 Confidence in Peace Between Israel and the Palestinians

peace process (Ross, 2004). Attitudes since the second Intifada have been pessimistic.

Table 4.5 further summarizes five surveys asking more specifically about the prospects of a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians (rather than Arabs). The first four surveys illustrate a very pessimistic view. An overwhelming majority of Americans believed that Israel and the Palestinians will never be able to form a lasting peace. The first three are during the First Intifada. The fourth, in July 1994, is after the Madrid Conference (1991), which started the indirect and direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians, culminating in the Oslo Accords (signed on August 20, 1993). The Oslo Agreement incited major violent incidents of Israelis and Palestinians that aimed to halt the progression of the Oslo Accords. Among the major incidents are the massacre in the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron (February 25, 1994) in which a Jewish Israeli settler from nearby Kiryat Arba killed 29 Muslims and injured 125. The massacre ignited a series of terrorist attacks by Palestinians. The Israeli public was extremely divided over the prospects of peace, leading to extensive political unrest and even the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995 by a Jewish Israeli right-wing extremist. These events help explain Americans’ pessimism even after the Oslo Accords.

The 2005 survey, during the disengagement from Gaza, is uniquely different. For the first time in our survey data, Americans are divided on this issue, with a marginal edge to an optimistic view of the prospects of peace. Yet because this question was not asked again, we cannot draw a clear conclusion whether Americans have become more optimistic about the prospects of peace.

Some indication of a slightly positive change to a more optimistic view can be found in another series that is based on a survey item asking respondents about the prospects of two states—Israel and Palestine—living side by side. This issue is at the center of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Figure 4.6 summarizes the results of eight surveys in the series from 2013 to 2018. Americans are divided over this issue but may be showing a marginal edge to an optimistic view. In 2014, the two sides are evenly split. This is the only year in which there was a large-scale military conflict between Israel and the Palestinians (Hamas in Gaza, Operation Protective Edge, July 8—August 26).

FIGURE 4.6 Likelihood of Israel and a Palestinian State Coexisting Peacefully

Note: N = 11,127 in eight surveys.

Lines represent Lowess smoothing lines with a bandwidth of 0.8.

Samples include national adults (6 surveys) and national registered voters (2).

Not displayed in the figure: percent of people who do not know, have no opinion or refuse to answer.

Polling organizations include PSRA/SRBI (6), and Quinnipiac University (2).