Attitudes About a Palestinian State

The peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians have often reached a gridlock when trying to resolve the question of an independent Palestinian state and four core issues: borders, refugees, Jerusalem and settlements. Survey data are available for the main issue—an independent state—and two core issues: Israeli settlements and the fate of Jerusalem. These data suggest that Americans support an independent Palestinian state, oppose Israeli settlements and are willing to consider a bi-national solution to Jerusalem as long as it includes the international community.

Support for a Palestinian State

Over time, the question of Palestinian independence has become the major point of contention between the two sides. Initially, it concerned whether the Palestinians should form an independent state. More recently, and especially since the Oslo Accords, the question has become more specifically about where such a state would be established, the mutual conditions required for its establishment and how it may solve the conflict between the two nations, and between Israel and the Arab world (Heller, 1983; Lesch, 2018; Peters & Newman, 2013; Waxman. 2019).

Numerous surveys asked Americans whether they support a Palestinian state. The wording of this topic varies greatly. In some cases, Americans have been asked for their general attitude toward an independent Palestinian state (or in some earlier versions, a homeland) without specifying the location of this would-be state. In a few cases, especially when the issue first came up in the peace negotiations with Egypt, the location remained unspecified, but it was made clear that this would be an independent state separated from Israel and other Arab countries. Some items explicitly mentioned territories occupied by Israel since the 1967 war, and most items explicitly mentioned the West Bank and Gaza Strip (though it is likely that most Americans do not know exactly where these locations are and how they differ from Israel). In one item, the location provided was “someplace in the Middle East.”

Despite the variation in question wording, plotting all questions together offers a fairly consistent trend of Americans’ attitudes about an independent Palestinian state. Figure 4.7 demonstrates that, in almost all cases, regardless of the specified location, the majority of Americans favor an independent Palestinian state.³⁸ Beyond the relative variation between surveys, the overall average level of support remains relatively stable at 43 percent. In contrast to this relative stability, the level of opposition has increased over time—reaching 29 percent in recent years. Americans are sorting out on this issue—showing a stable plurality in favor for an independent Palestinian state and an increasing

FIGURE 4.7 Favoring an Independent Palestinian State

Note. N = 74,299 in S9 surveys.

Lines represent Lowess smoothing lines with a bandwidth of 0.4.

Samples include national adults (SS surveys) and national registered voters (3).

Not displayed in the figure: percent of people who do not know, have no opinion or refuse to answer.

Polling organizations include Gallup (25), CBS/NYT (12), ABC/WP (7), and others, each with fewer surveys (1S overall).

minority that opposes such a state. We discuss this issue in more detail in Chapter 8.

Settlements

The issue of the Jewish settlements in the occupied territories has been a bone of contention between Israel and the United States since the end of the Six-Day War and the occupation of these territories. The issue has strained the relationship between the two allies more than any other topic. Almost every administration saw the settlements as illegal by international law and that they are an obstacle for peace. Public opinion data demonstrates that this is this is supported by overwhelming, increasing opposition of the American people to the settlement enterprise.

Figure 4.8 summarizes attitudes of American about the settlement enterprise. The question asks Americans if they believe it is all right for Israel to build Jewish settlements in territories beyond the 1967 border (10 surveys). The local regression

FIGURE 4.8 Attitudes Toward Israeli Settlements

Note: N = 10,126 in seven surveys (national adult).

Lines represent Lowess smoothing lines with a bandwidth of 0.8.

Not displayed in the figure: percent of people who do not know, have no opinion or refuse to answer.

Polling organizations include PIPA (2) and others, each with fewer surveys (5 overall).

line demonstrates that Americans have generally opposed Israel’s settlement activity, an opposition that has grown over time. In most recent surveys, about 60 percent of Americans oppose further housing construction in the territories.

In two incidences—1986 and October 1991—the question informed respondents that the US government opposed Israeli settlements, but this seems to match the general pattern of public opposition. In the only case where the American public is split (July 1991), the survey item explicitly mentioned that Israel is building settlements in lands it captured in 1967 after having been attacked by Arab nations. This addendum to the question may explain why attitudes in this case are slightly different. It is interesting to note that even in 2002 and 2009, when Americans largely blamed the Palestinians (see Figure 4.2) and approved of Israel’s use of force (Figure 4.4), they still strongly opposed settlements. This is testament that while Americans view Israel favorably and side with it in the conflict, they do not necessarily approve of its actions.

Fate of Jerusalem

On the topic of Jerusalem, data are sporadic and are spread over a long period, with different questions in 1967, 1978 and the 2000s. Figure 4.9 summarizes responses to five different questions that ask about possible

FIGURE 4.9 Support for Possible Solutions to the Jerusalem Question

Note: N = 7,112 in seven surveys.

Samples include national adults (6 surveys) and national likely voters (1).

Not displayed in the figure: percent of people who do not know, have no opinion or refuse to answer.

Polling organizations include PIPA (3), Harris (2) and others, McLaughlin & Associates (1) and Social Science Research Solutions (1).

solutions to this question: Jerusalem as an international city (1967 and 2001), Jerusalem under UN control (2002 and 2003), Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty but with guaranteed religious freedoms to all (1978 and 2004), approval of President Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (2017), and attitudes toward Trump’s decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem (2018).

Americans have supported assigning responsibility for Jerusalem to an international force or maintaining Israeli sovereignty as long as Muslims and Christians are provided full access to all holy places in the city. These patterns stand in stark contrast to Trump’s decision in 2017, as Americans are completely split in their approval of his decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (but Trump, explicitly mentioned in the question, may be a strong cue—for and against—this decision). Similarly, the 2018 survey suggests that Americans are completely split over Trump’s decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem (note that this question does not mention President Trump), but a majority of Americans were unable or unwilling to offer an opinion on this issue—53% reporting don’t know or haven’t heard enough about the issue to say.