# Empirical research

## Interprovincial emission reduction potential

Calculate the CO, redundancy of each province according to (3.2b), and obtain the CO, feasible emission reduction and emission reduction potential

Table 3.1 Descriptive statistics of various variables (1995-2007)

 Variables Capital ( 100 million yuan ) Labor 110.000 people) Energy (10.000 tons standard coal) GDP ( 100 million yuan ) CO, emission (10.000 tons) Average 9,194.594 2,238.833 6,525.56 4,804.882 12,373.68 Standard deviation 8,443.632 1,570.283 4,676.368 4,523.785 8,941.185 Minimum 434.8 226 303 201.2 627.6658 Maximum 50,421.5 6,568.2 28,552 29,400 59,383.5

of each province according to (3.4a) and (3.5a), as shown in Table 3.2. The true meaning of “CO, emission reduction’’ in column (I) means that if the input and output of the region are operated in accordance with the most advantageous mode of the frontier, while maintaining the input and the desired output unchanged, the amount of CO, emission reduction that can be achieved is actually the excessive CO, emissions in the region. According to the province’s CO, emission reductions, the total amount of emission reductions in the country can be obtained in the same year, and the proportion of CO, emission reductions in each province can be calculated as a percentage of the total amount of emission reductions in the country. See column (II). A proportional measure of the impact of the region’s emission reductions on the country, the higher the proportion, indicating that the region’s overall impact on the overall reduction of emissions, it should also be the area of concern for emission reduction; column (III), the “emission reduction potential,” refers to the proportion of “excess CO, emissions” in the region to actual CO, emissions, which is the level of inefficiency of CO, emissions in the region. If the value is higher, it indicates that there is greater inefficiency, but it also shows that the region has greater potential for emission reduction through technological advancement and efficiency improvements.

In the effective areas on the cutting-edge curve, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, the CO, emission reduction and emission reduction potential are both 0, which does not mean that the area does not need environmental treatment or no CO, emission reduction. Space refers to the fact that compared with other inefficient provinces; these regions cannot achieve further reduction of CO, under the conditions of maintaining current technical conditions, input levels and desired output, that is, the region is currently in Pareto Excellent state. If you want to cut CO,, its desirable output will also decline.8

It can be seen from Table 3.2 that the emission reduction potentials of different provinces are very different. In 1995-2007, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong have been at the forefront of production, and their relative emission reduction potential is 0; Fujian, Guangxi, and Hainan and other provinces are also at the forefront in some years; while Guizhou, Ningxia,

Table 3.2 C02 emission reductions by province, accounting for the national proportion and emission reduction potential (1995-2007)

 Provinces (I) CO; emission reduction (II) Proportion of national emission reduction (%) (III) Reduction potential (%) 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2007 1995-2007 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2007 1995-2007 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2007 1995-2007 Beijing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tianjin 1,978.9 2.421.4 1.902.7 2.131.5 1.93 1.84 0.79 1.46 42.8 42.8 24.5 38.1 Hebei 10,336.7 12,728.5 18,380.4 13.112.9 10.08 9.66 7.65 9.01 56.1 56.1 53.7 54.6 Shanxi 3,027.7 10,555.1 16,679.1 9.073.2 2.95 8.01 6.94 6.23 25.9 25.9 71.8 53.6 Inner Mongolia 5,309.8 9.008.5 19.600.8 10.030.3 5.18 6.84 8.15 6.89 67.6 67.6 75.2 70.7 Liaoning 9,197.0 9,778.9 11.871.3 10,037.9 8.97 7.42 4.94 6.89 57.0 57.0 48.4 54.5 Jilin 5,359.4 4,804.5 8.544.3 5,880.9 5.23 3.65 3.55 4.04 63.3 63.3 59.7 59.1 Heilongjiang 6,729.3 5.653.2 7,010.9 6,380.4 6.56 4.29 2.92 4.38 58.4 58.4 44.9 51.3 Shanghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jiangsu 4.426.5 4.226.9 11.675.8 6.022.6 4.32 3.21 4.86 4.14 24.8 24.8 30.8 23.6 Zhejiang 1,372.0 3.410.1 9.267.2 3.977.9 1.34 2.59 3.86 2.73 12.2 12.2 32.4 19.6 Anhui 5.164.9 6,597.0 8,302.8 6,439.8 5.04 5.01 3.45 4.42 52.8 52.8 49.4 51.8 Fujian 0 381.6 3.200.7 885.4 0.00 0.29 1.33 0.61 0 0 25.3 7.5 Jiangxi 1,470.0 1,698.3 3.376.2 1.997.7 1.43 1.29 1.40 1.37 30.3 30.3 34.6 30.0 Shandong 6,456.4 8,471.8 27.285.7 12,038.3 6.30 6.43 11.35 8.27 32.3 32.3 49.4 35.1 Henan 6,643.3 8,606.3 17,954.6 10.008.6 6.48 6.53 7.47 6.87 43.5 43.5 51.1 44.8 Hubei 3,676.9 6,574.4 10.108.0 6.275.4 3.59 4.99 4.21 4.31 31.1 31.1 49.3 41.5 Hunan 3.933.9 2.158.4 8,624.4 4.333.4 3.84 1.64 3.59 2.98 39.8 39.8 45.6 34.1 Guangdong 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Guangxi 525.1 1,698.4 3,621.6 1.690.9 0.51 1.29 1.51 1.16 10.6 10.6 35.6 22.7 Hainan 36.6 507.1 866.2 409.0 0.04 0.38 0.36 0.28 4.0 4.0 41.1 22.4 Sichuan 8,133.8 8,243.9 8,634.6 8.291.7 7.93 6.26 3.59 5.69 47.8 47.8 34.0 42.3 Guizhou 5.132.0 7.345.2 1.2416.2 7.664.2 5.00 5.57 5.17 5.26 74.5 74.5 80.0 76.5 Yunnan 1,602.9 1,998.4 6,836.6 2,962.8 1.56 1.52 2.84 2.03 32.0 32.0 55.6 37.6 Shaanxi 3,445.6 3.703.3 7.111.2 4.390.6 3.36 2.81 2.96 3.02 52.7 52.7 55.0 51.1 Gansu 3,160.2 3,636.0 4,637.4 3.684.1 3.08 2.76 1.93 2.53 65.5 65.5 60.6 63.3 Qinghai 629.1 918.8 1.385.4 915.0 0.61 0.70 0.58 0.63 58.6 58.6 62.0 60.2 Ningxia 1,334.3 2.194.6 4,965.6 2.503.2 1.30 1.67 2.07 1.72 72.7 72.7 84.0 75.8 Xinjiang 3,474.8 4,465.0 6,105.8 4.462.8 3.39 3.39 2.54 3.07 59.4 59.4 60.2 60.9

Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Jilin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanxi, Anhui, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, and other provinces have more than 50% reduction potential, which means that compared with the frontier areas, these provinces have large differences in factor allocation, technical level, and management efficiency, resulting in more than half of the CO, emissions from economic production being excessive emissions.

In terms of the scale of CO, emission reduction, in 1995-2007, the proportion of CO, emission reductions in Hebei, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Henan, Shanxi, Sichuan, and Guizhou accounted for more than 5% of the total national emission reduction. The total amount of emission reductions in the above eight provinces accounts for 55% of the total national emission reduction. In the near term, in 2005-2007, the emission reductions of Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, and Guizhou accounted for more than 5% of the total national emission reductions. The proportion of the volume is 46.7%. In particular, Shandong and Inner Mongolia need to pay attention to the fact that the amount of CO, that can reduce emissions is not only higher, but also in an increasing trend.

According to (3.4b) and (3.5b), the CO, emission reductions and emission reduction potentials in the eastern, central, and western regions can be calculated, as shown in Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2.

It can be seen from Figure 3.1 that the CO, emission reductions that can be achieved in the eastern, central, and western regions in 1995 were about 1 billion tons, and in 2007 they climbed to about 2.5 billion tons. To be specific, the proportion of emission reduction of the total national emission reduction by the eastern, central, and western regions was 33.4%, 34.6%, and 32%, respectively, between 1995 and 2007, indicating that the eastern, central, and western regions are more average in terms of the scale and proportion of emission reductions.

In addition, as can be seen from Figure 3.2, the emission reduction potentials of the eastern, central, and western regions are different. The average emission reduction potential in the eastern region is around 28%, and the central average is 48%. The western region saw the greatest emission reduction potential of 55.7%, and the emission reduction potential of the central and western regions began to increase from 2000, indicating that the excessive emissions due to inefficiency in production are increasing. The national average emission reduction potential is about 40%. Take 2007 as an example. In the same year, the national total CO, emissions were 5.92 billion tons. If all regions have effective areas on the frontier, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, goal-setting and producing through efficiency improvements and catching up with the frontier can save nearly 40% of CO, emissions while maintaining existing inputs and GDP. Wei Chu et al. (2010) have conducted a similar analysis on the potential of China’s energy conservation and emission reduction. The conclusion is that the national energy-saving potential in 2006 and 2007 is about 39%, while the SO, emission reduction potential is about

Figure 3.1 CO, emission reductions in the eastern, central, and western regions (1995-2007)

Figure 3.2 CO, emission reduction potential in the eastern, central, and western regions (1995-2007)

33-34% due to CO,. Emissions are closely related to energy consumption. The CO, emission reduction potential obtained in this chapter is 40% and is consistent with its conclusion.