Anticipated Future Trends

Global production of plastic has increased from around 5 million tons per year during the 1950s to over 280 million tons today (Thompson et al. 2009; PlasticsEurope 2011). However, the majority of this is used to make single-use items, which are disposed of within a year of production (Thompson et al. 2009).

Hence, considerable quantities of end-of-life plastics are accumulating in land fills and in the natural environment. The quantity of end-of-life plastic in the marine environment is substantial but as yet there are few reliable estimates of the total amount, or the relative proportions of different types of debris such as microplastic. Recent studies have attempted to assess global distributions (Cózar et al. 2014; Eriksen et al. 2014), the logical next step could be to estimate total production, current tonnage in use and accumulated disposal via recognized waste management in order to establish via a mass balance the amount of plastic that is missing and potentially in the environment (Jambeck et al. 2015). It is apparent that end-of-life plastic items are abundant and widely distributed in the oceans and that these items are progressively fragmenting into small pieces which are now abundant in the environment (Fig. 7.6). In some locations, it is evident that microplastics are numerically, as opposed to by mass, the most abundant type of solid debris present (Browne et al. 2010). However, despite the deterioration of plastic items into plastic fragments, conventional plastics will not readily biodegrade and it is considered that all of the plastics that have ever been produced are still present

Fig. 7.6 Accumulation of plastic debris on a shoreline in Europe. Small fragments of plastic including microplastics pieces <5 mm are often overlooked during routine beach monitoring, but are now the most abundant items on many shorelines (Photo: R.C. Thompson)

on the planet (unless they have bene incinerated) (Thompson et al. 2005). Hence, even if we were to cease using plastic items, which is not something I would advocate, the quantity of microplastic will continue to increase as a consequence of fragmentation of existing larger items (Thompson et al. 2009; STAP 2011).

From a personal perspective my interest in what we now describe as microplastics started in the in the mid-1990s. I was well aware that over the previous decades we had shifted to a very disposable society with considerable generation of waste. It was apparent that waste items including plastics were entering the oceans on a daily basis. These plastic items were resistant to degradation and I became curious as to where all the end-of-life single-use plastic items were accumulating in the natural environment. At that time, as is still largely the case, there was a distinct lack of data indicating any increasing temporal trends in the abundance of plastic debris and I considered that a substantial proportion may be accumulating as fragments, which were being missed by routine litter surveys (Fig. 7.6). These observations inspired the research leading to my paper in 2004 entitled 'Lost at sea where is all the plastic?'. In this paper I suggested that one reason we were not seeing a temporal trend was because the smaller fragments that were forming from larger items were not being recorded in routine monitoring. Ten years on it seems likely that accumulation of microplastics represents an important sink where the fragments of larger items reside in a size range that has seldom been monitored. However, while widely distributed in the marine environment the densities of microplastic recorded in the habitats studied to date are relatively low and indicate that if microplastics are indeed the ultimate end-product of our disposable society then some of the major sinks of this material are yet to be discovered. Many consider the deep sea likely to be a major sink and there is growing evidence that substantial quantities of macroplastic are accumulating there (Galgani et al. 1996). An initial survey suggested abundance in the deep sea may be lower than in shallow water habitats (Van Cauwenberghe et al. 2013), however using different approaches to record fibres there is recent evidence that the deep sea could be a substantial sink for microplastics (Woodall et al. 2014). Clearly more investigation is required to confirm the relative importance of the deep sea as a sink for microplastics, to understand their long-term fate in the deep sea and the extent of any subsequent deterioration or biodegradation over extended timescales (Zettler et al. 2013).


It is evident that microplastic pieces now contaminate marine habitats worldwide. This debris is ingested by a wide range of organisms and for some species a major proportion of the population contains plastic fragments. There are concerns about the physical and toxicological harm that ingesting this debris might cause and laboratory experiments have demonstrated harmful effects. However, the relative importance of plastics as a vector for chemical transport or their importance as an agent causing physical harm to organisms in the natural environment are much less clear (Koelmans 2015).

Our understanding of potential future trends in the abundance of microplastic debris is limited. While it seems inevitable that the quantities of microplastic will increase in the environment as a consequence of further direct introductions of primary microplastic and fragmentation of larger items the likely trajectories and potential sinks or hot spots of accumulation are not clear. In conclusion, 10 years after the term microplastic widely entered the published literature and after a considerable body of research, there remain more questions than answers about the accumulation and consequences of microplastic contamination in the environment (Law and Thompson 2014). Ultimately, however, there is broad recognition that plastic debris does not belong in the ocean. It is also clear that the numerous societal benefits that are derived from every-day-use of plastics can be achieved without the need for emissions of plastic waste to the environment. Since 8 % of the global oil production is currently used to make plastic items it seems clear that we urgently need to change the way we produce, use and dispose of plastic items. There is also a growing realization that the solution to two major environmental problems, our non-sustainable use of fossil carbon and accumulation of debris lie in utilizing end-of-life plastics as a raw material for new production. Such principles are central to the philosophy of developing a more circular economy and some believe that rethinking our use of plastic materials in line with this philosophy has considerable potential to bring much greater resource efficiency (European Commission 2012).

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