Simulation Modeling of HIV Infection—From Individuals to Risk Groups and Entire Populations

Georgiy Bobashev

Center for Data Science, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC CONTENTS

  • 10.1 Introduction...............................................................................................201
  • 10.2 Modeling Methodology...........................................................................203
  • 10.3 Statistical Models......................................................................................204
  • 10.4 State Transition and Markov Models....................................................206
  • 10.5 System Dynamics......................................................................................208
  • 10.6 Individual-Based (Microsimulation, Agent-Based) Models

and Synthetic Populations.......................................................................210

  • 10.7 Synthetic Populations...............................................................................214
  • 10.7.1 Future Population Projections....................................................215
  • 10.8 Uncertainty in Simulation Models.........................................................216
  • 10.9 The Use of Simulation Models in Forecasting.....................................217
  • 10.10 Model Parameterization, Calibration, and Validation........................218
  • 10.11 Modeling Applications to HIV Research Problems............................219
  • 10.11.1 Within-Person HIV Dynamics...................................................219
  • 10.11.2 Individual Behavior Risks..........................................................219
  • 10.11.3 Risk Groups..................................................................................221
  • 10.11.4 Population Models.......................................................................221
  • 10.12 Discussion..................................................................................................223

Acknowledgments..............................................................................................224

References.............................................................................................................224

 
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