The Quest for Subsidy Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Region: A Microsimulation Approach

Cross-Country AnalysesSubsidy Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Region: A ReviewIntroductionA Brief History of SubsidiesWhat Triggered Reforms?Who Reformed, When, How, and Why?Islamic Republic of Iran: December 18, 2010Yemen: 2010-2014Jordan: November 13, 2012Arab Republic of Egypt: July 5, 2014Morocco: September 16, 2013-October 1, 2014Tunisia: 2012-14Policy OptionsRadical Versus Gradualist ApproachCompensation Versus NoncompensationPublic Information Versus No InformationPiecemeal Versus Wholesale ReformsPoor Versus Middle ClassEnergy Versus Food Subsidies ReformsDirect Versus Indirect EffectsPolitical Timing of ReformsUnfinished BusinessA Success Story?What Next?AppendixA Comparative Analysis of Subsidies and Subsidy Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa RegionIntroductionData and Analytical ApproachMicrodataBaseline Prices and SubsidiesA Distributional Analysis of SubsidiesThe Absolute Importance and Distribution of SubsidiesThe Relative Importance and Distribution of SubsidiesA Policy DilemmaSimulations of Subsidies ReformsWelfareInequalityGovernment BudgetConclusionAn Evaluation of the 2014 Subsidy Reforms in Morocco and a Simulation of Further ReformsIntroductionThe Evolution of SubsidiesPetroleum. ProductsSugar and Cooking OilWheat and FlourBaseline DataA Distributional Analysis of Subsidies (October 2014)Simulation of Subsidy ReformsEvaluation of the 2014 Subsidy ReformsComplete Elimination of SubsidiesThe Political Economy of ReformsConclusionThe Socioeconomic Impacts of Energy Reform in Tunisia: A Simulation ApproachIntroductionEvolution of Energy Subsidies in TunisiaCurrent Structure of Energy Subsidies in TunisiaStructure of Residential Energy PricesEstimating Energy SubsidiesSocioeconomic Profile of Energy SubsidiesResidential Consumption and Expenditures on EnergySocioeconomic Distribution of Energy Subsidy BenefitsSimulating the Distributional Impacts of a Subsidy-Reducing ReformA Methodological Note on SimulationsSpending and Consumption ImpactsCompensating Interventions to Energy Subsidy ReformsConclusionAppendix 1: Electricity Tariff Structure for Low-Tension Residential Consumers (January 1, 2014)Appendix 2: Distribution of Monthly Electricity Consumption by QuintileAppendix 3: Composition of Consumption of Energy Sources by Sector (2012)ReferencesThe Quest for Subsidy Reforms in LibyaIntroductionEvolution of SubsidiesBaseline Data, Assumptions, and LimitationsFood SubsidiesThe Distribution of Food SubsidiesSimulation of Food Subsidy ReformsEnergy SubsidiesThe Distribution of Energy SubsidiesSimulations of Energy Subsidy ReformsThe Political Economy of ReformsSummary and RecommendationsReferencesEnergy Subsidies and the Path Toward Sustainable Reform in the Arab Republic of EgyptIntroductionScale of SubsidiesHow Do the Key Stakeholders Perceive Subsidy Reforms?Household Use of and Spending on EnergyDistribution of Direct Subsidies Among HouseholdsConclusionsReferencesEnergy Subsidies Reform in Jordan: Welfare Implications of Different ScenariosIntroductionEvolution of SubsidiesSubsidies on Petroleum. ProductsSubsidies on ElectricityDistribution of SubsidiesPetroleum. ProductsElectricityDirect Impact of Simulation of Subsidies ReformPetroleum. ProductsScenario 1: Subsidy Cuts Without Cash TransfersScenario 2: Subsidy Cuts with. Cash TransfersImpact of the Petroleum Products Reform on Government RevenueElectricityThree Scenarios for Electricity Tariffs ReformsImpact of Electricity Reform on Government RevenueIndirect Impact of Simulation of Subsidies Reform Petroleum ProductsElectricityThe Political Economy of ReformsConclusionsReferencesEnergy Subsidies Reform in the Republic of Yemen: Estimating Gains and LossesIntroductionEvolution of SubsidiesDistribution of SubsidiesBaseline DataDistribution of SubsidiesSimulation of Subsidies ReformsFuel ProductsElectricityThe Political Economy of ReformsConclusionsReferencesDjibouti: Subsidies, Tax Exemptions and WelfareIntroductionEvolution of SubsidiesDetermination of the Retail PriceDistribution of SubsidiesEnergy ProductsFood ProductsSimulation of Subsidies ReformsImpact of Removing the Discretionary Tax on Fuel ProductsImpact of Introducing Consumer Tax on Basic Food ItemsThe Political Economy of ReformsFuel SubsidiesSocial Safety NetsConclusionReferencesConsumer Subsidies in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Simulations of Further ReformsIntroductionEvolution of SubsidiesDataDistribution of SubsidiesSimulations of Subsidy ReformScenario 1: Direct EffectsScenario 1: Indirect EffectsScenario 2: Direct EffectsScenario 2: Indirect EffectsThe Political Economy of ReformsConclusionsReferencesA User GuideIntroductionInstallationSUBSIM Direct Effects TabLinear SubsidiesNonlinear SubsidiesSimulation with Large Number of ItemsData and MethodologyLaunch SUBSIMComparing SUBSIM Direct and SUBSIM Indirect EffectsSUBSIM Basic FormulasChanges in WelfareChanges in QuantitiesChanges in Government RevenuesFormulas for Input-Output Simulations
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