B3.4 Taxes
Except for a consumption tax, all other taxes (a labor income tax, an interest income tax, and an inheritance tax) are assumed fixed at the 2002 levels. A consumption tax is the only indirect tax in this simulation, but the actual tax system has a number of indirect taxes. In order to account for these other taxes, the consumption tax rate in this simulation is computed based on the total amount of all indirect tax revenues in the SNA. As a result, the consumption tax rate calculated here does not coincide with the actual consumption tax rate. It is higher because it includes the other indirect taxes.
Table 7.B1 Base simulation results
|
Year |
GDP growth rate (n) |
Interest rate (r) |
n—r |
Bond outstanding |
Primary balance |
Public pension benefit |
Health insurance benefit |
Tax burden |
Social security burden |
Social security contribution rate |
|
|
Percentage of GDP |
|||||||||||
|
Actual |
2002 |
0.05 % |
114% |
-8.48% |
7.75 % |
5.89% |
15.62% |
9.69 % |
18.57% |
||
|
Simulation results |
2003 |
0.73 % |
3.94% |
-3.20% |
121% |
-3.30% |
10.16% |
5.06% |
21.14% |
9.65 % |
15.12% |
|
2005 |
0.40% |
3.59% |
-3.19% |
134% |
-2.43 % |
10.73 % |
5.21% |
22.21% |
10.18% |
15.94% |
|
|
2010 |
0.04% |
2.89% |
-2.85 % |
160% |
0.43 % |
12.53 % |
5.67% |
25.70% |
11.95% |
18.71 % |
|
|
2015 |
-0.60% |
2.29 % |
-2.89 % |
171% |
3.46% |
15.20% |
6.21% |
29.62 % |
14.24% |
22.30 % |
|
|
2020 |
-0.57 % |
2.05 % |
-2.63 % |
175% |
4.63 % |
16.74% |
6.70% |
31.35% |
15.82% |
24.78 % |
|
|
2025 |
-0.73 % |
1.95% |
-2.68 % |
175% |
4.72 % |
17.42 % |
7.14% |
31.75% |
16.60% |
26.01 % |
|
|
2030 |
-1.11% |
1.83% |
-2.93 % |
175% |
5.19% |
18.37% |
7.62 % |
32.62 % |
17.53% |
27.45 % |
|
|
2035 |
-1.42% |
1.70% |
-3.12% |
175% |
5.55 % |
19.87 % |
8.16% |
33.54% |
18.91% |
29.62 % |
|
|
2040 |
-1.59% |
1.62% |
-3.22 % |
175% |
5.72 % |
22.35 % |
8.66% |
34.54% |
21.02% |
32.93 % |
|
|
2045 |
-1.49% |
1.76% |
-3.26% |
175% |
5.78 % |
23.85 % |
9.12% |
35.15% |
22.42 % |
35.13% |
|
|
2050 |
-1.46% |
2.03 % |
-3.49 % |
175% |
6.20% |
24.68 % |
9.59 % |
35.93 % |
23.27 % |
36.44 % |
|
Note: The social security contribution rate is defined as the ratio of the total amount of social security contributions to the total amount of wage income
Appendix B: Simulation Analysis in an Aging Japan 195
