Fast-Forward in the Next 20 Years

There are several scenarios for how oil production might evolve in the next 20 years (© OECD/IEA, WEO 2012). The first, in which status quo is maintained, estimates that global oil production will grow from 87 million barrels daily to above 108 million barrels by 2035. A second scenario, in which a number of measures will be adopted to limit global warming to less than two degrees above the pre-industrial level, envisages a reduction of total production to around 79 million barrels per day. Finally, an intermediate scenario (“New Policy” scenario) sees a slight increase of production to a bit less than 100 million barrels per day. This scenario is presented here.

According to the International Energy Agency (2012), oil production should increase on average 0.5% per year. This forecast corresponds to other forecasts such as Exxon Mobil (2016) with 0.7% growth in average per year, Shell (2016) (0.7% for the “Mountains” scenario), or Statoil (2016) with similar growth. Output in the Middle East should grow twice faster and the region’s share of oil production should thus increase from 32 to 36%. North and South America should see their production increase by an average of 1%, and consequently their share, in particular North America’s, should as well increase in the overall production mix. The growth of production in Eurasia should remain very weak, mainly due to the lack of investment in the region. Without any new significant investment in the next 20 years, only 10 years of available production would remain available to Eurasia in 2035 (Fig. 3.6).

The world’s oil consumption should increase as well by an average of 0.5% per year, with strong regional disparities. Large industrial regions such as North America and Europe should lower their energy consumption by an average of 1% per year. This would take their share of global energy consumption down from 41 to 30%. The rest of the world should consume more energy, notably China (2.2% per year) and India (3.4% per year). In Asia, Japan should consume less while the rest of Asia demands more energy. By 2035, the share of Asia (including China and

Table 3.1 Worldwide oil exchanges (BP 2009, 2014)

Oil (Mtoe)

Transit energy to

Transit energy from

North

America

South

America

Europe

Russia/

Eurasia

Middle

East

Africa

China

India

Asia

Australia

Total

exports

North America

X

56

46

0

4

7

10

7

16

0

146

South America

85

X

18

0

0

0

31

32

18

0

184

Europe

36

9

X

5

12

29

1

1

23

0

116

Russia/Eurasia

25

1

295

X

13

2

43

2

41

2

424

Middle East

107

7

103

0

X

17

154

125

444

8

965

Africa

48

19

147

0

1

X

65

32

19

7

338

China

0

5

1

l

1

1

X

1

22

0

32

India

3

5

8

0

17

9

1

X

17

0

60

Asia

7

2

6

0

3

5

34

5

X

34

96

Australia

0

1

0

0

0

0

3

0

10

X

14

Total imports

311

105

624

6

51

70

342

205

610

51

2375

Consumption

1024

312

711

167

385

171

507

175

686

47

4185

Evolution of oil production (© OECD/IEA, WEO 2012)

Fig. 3.6 Evolution of oil production (© OECD/IEA, WEO 2012)

Evolution of oil consumption (© OECD/IEA, WEO 2012)

Fig. 3.7 Evolution of oil consumption (© OECD/IEA, WEO 2012)

India) will represent 40% of world oil consumption, versus 30% today. The shift from West to East is obvious. Countries from the Middle East and Africa will continue to see their consumption rise, but not in the same proportion. In Africa, the rise of oil consumption will essentially be linked to population growth rather than the economic transition expected to start later in this scenario (Fig. 3.7).

The oil production and consumption pattern in the last 10 years is thus expected to continue for the next 20 years. The economic transition in Asia will materialize and the shift of consumption towards Asia will amplify. Consequently, oil production in the Middle East will continue to increase, as well as in Russia if China and

Russia develop stronger ties in the coming years. Finally, the development of unconventional oil in the American continent shall lead to an increase in production, confirming the relative energy independence of the region.

 
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