Massive Potential for End-Use Efficiency

Each end-use sector presents different opportunities for saving energy. Indeed, increased energy consumption in a number of sectors will be inexorable, while in some others, savings will be easier to reach.

Despite a 35% growth forecast for energy demand in the coming 20 years, the energy saving potential across all end-use sectors amounts to around 25% of the total final energy consumption. The International Energy Agency (2012) indeed records the actual savings forecasted to be realized by 2035 by sector. Those savings, according to the same source, are expected to correspond to 42% of the full potential in the industry sector, 18% in buildings, and 38% in transportation. This yields a full energy efficiency potential which represents as of today 25% of the final end user consumption in the industry sector, 20% in buildings, and 31% in the transportation sector. Overall, this potential corresponds to 1900 Mtoe of end-use energy, meaning that up to 2700 Mtoe of corresponding primary energy could be saved (© OECD/IEA 2014; © OECD/IEA, WEO 2012). Indeed, primary energy can be retrieved using coefficients of transformation for electricity production (40% average yield) and for vehicle gas transformation in refineries (83% of yield). 2700 Mtoe correspond to 21% savings on overall primary energy consumption. This figure needs to be compared to the 450 scenario which plans for a 2400 Mtoe reduction of primary energy consumption by 2035. The 450 scenario thus corresponds to an 88% realization of the total potential in terms of end-use energy efficiency (© OECD/IEA, Energy Efficiency 2013; © OECD/IEA, WEO 2012) (Fig. 5.1).

End use energy efficiency saving potential (© OECD/IEA, Energy Efficiency 2013; © OECD/IEA, WEO 2012)

Fig. 5.1 End use energy efficiency saving potential (© OECD/IEA, Energy Efficiency 2013; © OECD/IEA, WEO 2012)

 
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