Population Census: Some Key Results

The 2011 Population Census (Provisional Population Totals) places the all-India population as on 1st March 2011 at 1210.19 million up from 1028.74 million ten years earlier, (Paper 1 of 2011, Census of India, GOI 2011a). The implicit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.64% per annum (pcpa) over the 2001-2011 decade marks a significant slow-down from a CAGR of 1.97 pcpa over the 1991-2001 decade. In fact, over the period 1981-2011, the pace of decline in CAGR of all-India population has steadily risen: from 0.06% points in the 19811991 decade to 0.19% points in the 1991-2001 decade, and, now, in the 2001-2011 decade to 0.33% points.

The provisional population totals also indicate a small but welcome rise in the overall sex ratio (females per 1000 males) from 933 to 940 over the 2001-2011 decade. This shows up as a faster growth of the total female population at 1.68 pcpa relative to the 1.64 pcpa growth of the total population.

Table 6.1 Census count of all-India population by gender and location: 2001-2011

Source Census of India 2011, Provisional Population Totals, Paper 1 of 2011 and Paper 2 of 2011 (GOI, ORGI 2011b)

The 2011 Census results also show a sharp rise in the share of urban areas in total population from 27.8% in 2001 to 31.8% (Paper 2 of 2011 Census of India, GOI 2011b). To see this in perspective, it may be noted that in the official population projections for India and States 2001-2026 (2006) the Urban share in total all-India (projected) population, in 2016 is lower at 31.1%.

Reflecting this sharp rise in the share of urban areas in total all-India population, we have the total (male plus female) Urban population growing at 2.8 pcpa over the 2001-2011 decade, compared to a mere 1.16 pcpa growth in total rural population. The improvement in the overall sex ratio in urban areas, from 900 and 926 (per 1000 males) is even more marked than that for the country as a whole. This is reflected in the urban female population growing at close to 3% per annum over the 2001-2011 decade, compared to 2.66 pcpa for urban males (see Table 6.1).

Even as the overall sex ratio has improved over the 2001-2011 decade, the sex ratio for children in the 0-6 age group has worsened from 934 to 919 in rural India; from 906 and 902 in urban India; and, from 927 to 914 in the country as a whole (Table 6.2). This has occurred despite the fact that the gains in probability of survival from birth to age 5 over the period 1996-2000 to 2006-2010 have been higher for girls—especially in rural India (Table 6.3). Given this, the reduction in the child sex ratio would appear to be largely reflective of a likely worsening of the ratio of girls to boys at birth—possibly reflecting a more wide-spread use of sex-selective abortions.

The improvement in the overall sex ratio despite a worsening of the child sex ratio reflects greater gains in life expectancy at age 5 for girls relative to boys over the period 1996-2000 to 2006-2010. Thus, in the country as a whole, SRS-based Abridged Life Tables (GOI, RGI 2012) show that the female life expectancy at age 5 rose from 64.9 to 67.8 years (i.e. a gain of 2.9 years) over the decade. For males, the life expectancy at age 5 rose more modestly from 62.3 to 63.9 years or by 1.6 years. In rural India, the gain in life expectancy at age 5 over this period was

Table 6.2 Sex ratios (females per 1000 males) for the total and child (0-6 years) population by rural urban location: all India, 2001 and 2011. Sex-ratios (females per 1000 males)

Source As in Table 6.1

Table 6.3 Probability of survival from birth to completed age 5 by gender and rural urban location: all India, 1996-2000 and 2006-2010 (survival probabilities from birth of age 5 years)

Source Office of the Registrar General of India SRS-based Abridged Life Table 1996-2000 and 2006-2010 (GOI, RGI 2012)

3.0 years for females and 1.6 years for males. For urban India, the gains in female life expectancy at age 5 was more modest at 2.00 years, but was still higher than that for urban males (1.5 years.)