Systemic Decision Making: Fundamentals for Addressing Problems and Messes


I A Frame of Reference for Systemic Decision MakingIntroductionThe TAO ApproachSystems ErrorsType III ErrorType IV ErrorType V ErrorType VIII ErrorType I and Type II ErrorsType VI ErrorType VII ErrorAnalysis of ErrorsSummaryReferencesProblems and MessesA Brief Introduction to ComplexityUnderstanding ComplexityThe Machine Age and the Systems AgeDealing with Systems Age MessesScientific Approaches to Complex ProblemsPerspectives in Complex ProblemsHolistic UnderstandingWhat’s the Problem?Problem StructuringSummaryReferencesSystemic ThinkingA Brief Background of Systems ApproachesWhat Is Systemic Thinking? Age or EraUnit of AnalysisMathematical FormulationGoalUnderlying PhilosophyEpistemologyOntologyDisciplinary ScopeParticipantsA Multimethodology for Systemic Decision MakingSummaryReferencesSystems TheoryOverviewHistorical Roots of Systems TheoryGeneral Systems TheoryLiving Systems TheoryMathematical Systems TheoryCyberneticsSocial Systems TheoryPhilosophical Systems TheoryHistorical Roots of Systems Theory SummarySystems TheoryCentrality AxiomEmergenceHierarchyCommunicationsControlThe Contextual AxiomHolismDarknessComplementarityThe Goal AxiomEquifinality and MultifinalityPurposive BehaviorSatisficingThe Operational AxiomDynamic EquilibriumRelaxation TimeBasins of StabilitySelf-organizationHomeostasis and HomeorhesisSuboptimizationRedundancyThe Viability AxiomViability PrincipleOrientation TheoryOrientor Hierarchy in Orientation TheoryBasic Orientors in Orientation TheorySystem Types in Orientation TheoryControlling Environmental Forces in Orientation TheorySystems Viability for the PractitionerRequisite VarietyRequisite HierarchyFeedbackCircular CausalityRecursionThe Design AxiomRequisite ParsimonyRequisite SaliencyMinimum. Critical SpecificationPower LawsPareto PrincipleZipf’s LawPower LawsThe Practitioner and Power LawsThe Information AxiomInformation RedundancyPrinciple of Information Channel CapacityPrinciple of Information EntropyRedundancy of Potential CommandInformation InaccessibilitySummaryReferencesComplex Systems ModelingIntroductionThe Role of ModelingMethod ComparisonFuzzy Cognitive MappingA Framework for FCM DevelopmentStep 1: Clarification of Project Objectives and Information NeedsStep 2: Plans for Knowledge ElicitationStep 3: Knowledge CaptureStep 4: FCM Calibration and Step 5: Testing (Step 5)Step 6: Model Use and InterpretationExample FCM ApplicationSummaryReferencesII Thinking Systemically A Multi-Methodology for Systemic ThinkingThe Who of Systemic ThinkingStakeholder AnalysisBrainstorm StakeholdersClassify StakeholdersEvaluate Stakeholder AttitudesMap Stakeholder ObjectivesDetermine Stakeholder Engagement PriorityDevelop a Stakeholder Management PlanManage StakeholdersFramework for Addressing Who in Messes and ProblemsExample ProblemExample Stakeholder BrainstormingExample Stakeholder ClassificationExample Stakeholder Attitude EvaluationExample Stakeholder Objective MappingExample Stakeholder Engagement PriorityExample Stakeholder Management PlanSummaryReferencesThe What of Systemic ThinkingAnatomy of a ProblemThe Importance of ObjectivesObjective IdentificationObjective OrganizationFundamental Objectives HierarchyMeans-Ends NetworkFramework for Addressing What in Messes and ProblemsArticulate ObjectivesFundamental Objectives HierarchyMeans-Ends NetworkFCM UpdateSummaryReferencesThe Why of Systemic ThinkingOverviewMotivationCategorizing Theories of MotivationTheories of MotivationInstinct Theory of MotivationDrive Reduction Theory of MotivationHierarchy of NeedsAttribution Theory of MotivationReinforcement Theory of MotivationSocial Comparison Theory of MotivationTheory X and Theory YCognitive Dissonance Theory of MotivationExpectancy Theory of MotivationMotivator-Hygiene Theory of MotivationAcquired Needs Theory of MotivationERG Theory of MotivationSelf-determination Theory of MotivationOpponent Process Theory of MotivationGoal-Setting Theory of MotivationReversal Theory of MotivationApplying Theories of MotivationCybernetics and Control TheoryKlein’s Integrated Control Theory Model of Work MotivationFramework for Addressing Why in Messes and ProblemsExample ProblemMotivation/Feedback AnalysisFCM UpdateProposed Changes During Act StageSummaryReferencesThe Where of Systemic ThinkingIntroductionContextPerspectives and ContextDescription and Definitions for ContextElements of ContextTemporal Aspects of ContextCultural Values and Their Impact on the Development of ContextData, Information, and KnowledgeInclusion of ContextBoundaries and the EnvironmentDefinitions for Boundary and EnvironmentThe Significance of Boundary EstablishmentBoundary ClassificationUlrich’s Framework of Twelve Critically Heuristic Boundary CategoriesForce Field DiagramsFramework for Addressing Where in Messes and ProblemsExample ProblemBoundary ArticulationContextForce Field Diagram.Updated FCMProposed Ought-to-Be ChangesSummaryReferencesThe How of Systemic ThinkingOverviewMechanismsPhysical Classification for MechanismsHuman Classification for MechanismsPersonal KnowledgeOrganizational KnowledgeAbstract Classification of MechanismsMethods as Mechanisms for Messes and Constituent ProblemsSensemakingPragmatic Intersection of Knowledge and InformationFramework for SensemakingCynefin Domain and Mechanism TypesCynefin and the Strategic Decision Making PyramidFramework for Addressing How in Messes and ProblemsExample ProblemCynefin AnalysisMechanism AnalysisUpdated FCMSummaryReferencesThe When of Systemic ThinkingLife Cycles and MaturityEvolutionEntropyAnother View of SensemakingDecision Flowchart for Addressing When in Messes and ProblemsFramework for Addressing When in Messes and ProblemsExample ProblemTimescale AssessmentIntervention TimingSummary and Implications for Systemic ThinkingReferencesIII Acting SystemicallySystemic ActionMess ReconstructionThe What Is Meta-PerspectiveThe What Ought-to-Be Meta-PerspectiveExample AnalysisIterationSummaryReferencesAnatomy of a DecisionIntroductionRolesDecision AnalysisDecision ScienceThe Decision ProcessMeasuring PerformanceFramework for Action in Messes and ProblemsExample Action AnalysisAdditional ConcernsDecision RobustnessDecision OptimalitySummaryReferencesDecision ImplementationIntroductionHuman Error ClassificationClassification and Performance LevelsHuman Error ManagementLatent and Active FailuresHuman Error PreventionSummaryReferencesIV Observing SystemicallyObservationIntroductionAvoiding the Type I and Type II ErrorsObservationA Model for the Process of ObservationTheory-Laden ObservationData, Information, Knowledge and ObservationObservation and Situated CognitionTechnological System in the DMSCCognitive System in the DMSCCybernetic Nature of the DMSCMeasurement and ObservationBias and Heuristics in ObservationAvailability HeuristicRepresentativeness HeuristicConjunction FallacyAnchoring and Adjustment HeuristicRecognition HeuristicConfirmation BiasSummaryReferencesSystemic LearningIntroductionLearning TheoryGregory Bateson and Early Learning TheoryCybernetics and Learning TheoryChris Argyris, Donald Schon, and Learning TheoryRelating Performance to First-order, Second-order, and Deutero-LearningLearning in OrganizationsStrategy and Competitive AdvantageCompetitive Advantage and Organizational LearningWorkers in the Learning OrganizationLeadership Challenges in the Learning OrganizationAvoiding the Type VI ErrorSummaryReferencesFord Pinto Case StudyIntroductionProblem StructuringProblem 1: Ford ProblemWho PerspectiveStakeholder BrainstormingStakeholder ClassificationStakeholder Attitude EvaluationStakeholder Objective MappingStakeholder Engagement PriorityStakeholder Management PlanWhat PerspectiveArticulate ObjectivesFundamental Objectives HierarchyMeans-Ends NetworkFCM UpdateWhy PerspectiveMotivation/Feedback AnalysisFCM UpdateProposed Changes During Act StageWhere PerspectiveBoundary ArticulationContextForce Field DiagramUpdated FCMProposed Ought-to-Be ChangesHow PerspectiveCynefin AnalysisMechanism SelectionUpdated FCMWhen PerspectiveTime Scale AssessmentIntervention TimingProblem 2: NHTSA ProblemWho PerspectiveStakeholder BrainstormingStakeholder ClassificationStakeholder Attitude EvaluationStakeholder Objective MappingStakeholder Engagement PriorityStakeholder Management PlanWhat PerspectiveArticulate ObjectivesFundamental Objectives HierarchyMeans-Ends NetworkFCM UpdateWhy PerspectiveMotivation/Feedback AnalysisFCM UpdateProposed Changes During Act StageWhere PerspectiveBoundary ArticulationContextForce Field DiagramUpdated FCMProposed Ought-to-Be ChangesHow PerspectiveCynefin AnalysisMechanism SelectionUpdated FCMWhen PerspectiveTime Scale AssessmentIntervention TimingFord Pinto MessConclusionsReferenceConclusionI: A Frame of Reference for Systemic ThinkingII: Thinking SystemicallyIII: Acting SystemicallyIV: Observing SystemicallySummaryReference
 
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