Sources and Additional Reading

Chapter 1: The Daily Blotter

Cottle, Sidney, Roger F. Murray, and Frank E. Block. Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis. NewYork: McGraw-Hill, 1988.

Crescenzi, Anthony. The Strategic Bond Investor. NewYork: McGraw-Hill, 2002.

Goldberg, Linda, and Deborah Leonard. “What Moves Sovereign Bond Markets? The Effects of EconomicNews on U.S. and German Yields.” Federal Reserve Bank ofNew York Current Issues in Economics and Finance 9, no. 9 (September 2003).

Hager, George. “Economists Seek Clues in Daily Life.” USA Today (February 12, 2001).

Yamarone, Richard. “The Business Economist at Work: Argus Research Corporation.” Business Economics (July 1999): 65—70.

Chapter 2: The Business Cycle

Anderson, Gerald H., andJohnJ. Erceg. “Forecasting Turning Points with Leading Indicators.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary (October 1, 1989).

Dueker, Michael J. “Strengthening the Case for the Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Review 79, no. 2 (March/April 1997): 41-51.

Estrella, A., and F S. Mishkin. “The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions.” Federal Reserve Bank ofNew York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 2, no. 7 (June 1996).

Evans, Charles L., Chin Te Liu, and Genevieve Pham-Kanter. “The 2001 Recession and the Chicago FedNational Activity Index: Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points.” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives 26, no. 3 (Third Quarter): 26-43.

Haubrich, Joseph G., and Ann M. Dombrosky. “Predicting Real Growth Using the Yield Curve.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Review 32, no. 1 (First Quarter 1996): 26-35.

Higgins, Patrick. “GDPNow: A Model for GDP ‘Nowcasting,’” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working paper 2014-7 (July 2014).

Kozicki, Sharon. “Predicting Real Growth and Inflationwith the Yield Spread.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review (Fourth Quarter 1997): 39-57.

Moore, Geoffrey H. Business Cycles, Inflation and Forecasting, 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing, 1983.

__Leading Indicators for the 1990s. Homewood, IL: Dow Jones-Irwin, 1990.

National Bureau of Economic Research. Conference on Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1951.

__U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. www.nber.orgcycles.html.

Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993.

The Conference Board. Business Cycle Indicators. New York: The Conference Board, several issues.

__U.S. Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes. New York: The Conference Board, several issues.

Chapter 3: Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Aruoba, S. B., F. X. Diebold, J. Nalewaik, F. Schorfheide, and D. Song. “Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective.” FRB Philadelphia Working Paper 13-16 (May 2013).

Baumol, William J., and Alan S. Blinder. Macroeconomics Principles and Policy, 5th ed. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1991.

Bernanke, Ben S., and Andrew B. Abel. Macroeconomics, 3d ed. New York: Addison-Wesley, 1998.

Congressional Budget Office. The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (July 2000).

__CBO s Method for Estimating Potential Output: An Update (August 2001).

Mankiw, N. Gregory. Principles of Macroeconomics. Fort Worth, TX: The Dryden Press, 1998.

Popkin, Joel. “The U.S. National Income and Product Accounts.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 14, no. 2 (Spring 2000): 214—224.

Prakken, Joel L., and Lisa T. Guirl. “Macro Modeling and Forecasting with Chain-Type Measures of GDP.” National Association of Business Economists News 113 (September 1995).

Steindel, Charles. “Chain-Weighting: The New Approach to Measuring GDP.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 1, no. 9 (December 1995).

United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. An Introduction to National Economic Accounting, Methodology Papers: U.S. National Income and Product Accounts. Washington, DC (March 1985).

__National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929—94, vols. 1, 2.

Washington, DC (April 1998).

__“GDP: One of the Great Inventions of the 20th Century.” Survey of Current Business

(January 2000): 6-14.

__Corporate Profits, Profits Before Tax, Profits Tax Liability and Dividends Methodology Paper. Washington, DC (September 2002).

__Gross Domestic Product Report (various issues).

__Survey of Current Business (various issues).

__Website: http://www.bea.doc.gov.

Chapter 4: The Labor Market and Employment

Baumol, William J., and Alan S. Blinder. Macroeconomics Principles and Policy, 5th ed. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1991.

Fleming, Michael J., and Eli M. Remolona. “What Moves the Bond Market?” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper, no. 9706 (February 1997).

Getz, Patricia M., and Mark G. Ulmer. “Diffusion Indexes: A Barometer of the Economy.” Monthly Labor Review. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor (April 1990).

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey.” Handbook of Methods (April 1997).

__“Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Establishment Survey.” Handbook of

Methods. http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/homch2.pdf.

__“Howthe Government Measures Unemployment” (July 2001).www.bls.gov/cps/cps_

htgm.htm.

__The Employment Situation (various issues).

Chapter 5: Retail Sales

Harris, Ethan S., and Clara Vega. “What Do Chain Store Sales Tell Us about Consumer Spending?” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper, no. 9614 (June 1996).

Mencke, Claire. “Hot Retail Seems to Cinch Rate Hike Even as Producer Prices Stay Tame.” Investor s Business Daily (April 14, 2000).

Nakamura, Leonard I. “The Retail Revolution and Food-Price Mismeasurement.” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Review (May/June 1998).

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Annual Benchmark Report for Retail Trade and Food Services: January 1992 through March 2002. Washington, DC (May 2002).

__Current Business Reports, Retail e-Commerce Reports, Washington, DC (various

issues 1990-2002).

__Monthly Retail Services Branch. E-Commerce, Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs).

http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/efaq.html.

Chapter 6: National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) Small Business Economic Trends

Dunkelberg, William C., and Holly Wade, NFIB Small Business Economic Trends, NFIB Research Foundation, (various issues).

Chapter 7: Personal Income and Outlays

Larkins, Daniel. “Note on the Personal Saving Rate.” Survey of Current Business (February 1999): 8-9.

Mitchell, Wesley C., ed. Income in the United States: Its Amount and Distribution 1909—1919.

New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1921.

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Methodology Paper Series MP-6. Washington, DC (June 1990).

__National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929—94, vols. 1, 2.

Washington, DC (April 1998).

__“Personal Income and Outlays” (various issues, 2016). http://www.bea.gov/national/

index.htm#personal.

Chapter 8: Housing and Construction

Hagenbaugh, Barbara. “More People Refinance to Wring Cash Out of Their Homes.” USA

Today, Money Section (October 28, 2002).

Hancock, Jay. “Amazing Housing Market Bound to Help the Economy.” The Baltimore Sun (February 27, 2002).

Mortgage Bankers Association, www.mbaa.org.

NationalAssociation of Home Builders. “Housing the Keyto Economic Recovery” (November 2002). www.nahb.com.

NationalAssociation of Realtors, nar.realtor.org.

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Expenditures for Improvements and Repairs of Residential Properties (Third Quarter 2001).

__New Residential Construction (various issues).

__New Residential Construction Documentation. https://www.census.gov/

construction/c30/c30index.html.

Chapter 9: Manufacturing

Blinder, Alan S. “Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1981): 443—505.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Industrial Production—1986 Edition with a Description of the Methodology. Washington, DC (1986).

__Federal Reserve Statistical Release, G.17. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (various issues).

Economic Cycle Research Institute (2016). www.businesscycle.com.

Emery, Kenneth M., and Chih-Ping Chang. “Is There a Stable Relationship Between Capacity Utilization and Inflation?” Federal Reserve BankofDallas, EconomicReview (First Quarter 1997): 14-20.

Gittings, Thomas A. “Capacity Utilization and Inflation.” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspectives 13, no. 3 (May/June 1989): 2-9.

Harberger, Arnold C., ed. The Demand for Durable Goods. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1960.

Harris, Ethan S. “Tracking the Economy with the Purchasing Managers’ Index.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Review (Fall 1991): 61, 69.

Institute for Supply Management. Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Report on Business Information Kit (as of September 2002).

__Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Report on Business (various issues).

__Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Report on Business (various

issues).

Klein, Philip A., and Geoffrey H. Moore. “N.A.P.M. Business Survey Data: Their Value as a Leading Indicator.” Journal of Purchasing and Materials Management (Winter 1988).

Koenig, Evan F. “Capacity Utilization as a Real-Time Predictor of Manufacturing Output.” Federal Reserve BankofDallas, Economic Review (Third Quarter 1996): 16-23.

McConnell, Margaret M., and Gabriel Perez Quiros. “Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980s?” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Report 41 (June 1998).

Rogers, R. Mark. “Forecasting Industrial Production: Purchasing Managers’ versus Production-Worker Hours Data.” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Economic Review (January/February 1992): 25-36.

U.S. Departmentof Commerce, Bureauofthe Census. Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1947-1963, Revised, Series M3-1. Washington, DC: GPO (October 1963).

__Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and

Orders (various issues).

__Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (various issues).

__Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories (various issues).

__Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales (various issues).

Chapter 10: Prices and Inflation

Aluminum Association, Inc. Industry Overview: From Alumina to Automobiles, 2003. http://www.aluminum.org.

Bryan, Michael F., and Stephen G. Cecchetti. “The Consumer Price Index as a Measure ofInfla- tion.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Review (December 1993): 15 — 24.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The Consumer Price Index.” Chapter 17 in BLS Handbook of Methods, April 1997.

__“The Producer Price Index.” Chapter 16 in BLS Handbook of Methods, April 1997.

__“Measurement Issues in the Consumer Price Index” (June 1997). www.bls.gov/cpi/

cpigm697.htm.

__“How Does the Producer Price Index Differ from the Consumer Price Index?“ PPI

Program Spotlight, No. 98-3 (1998).

Clark, Todd E. “Do Producer Prices Help Predict Consumer Prices?” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper, 97-09 (December 1997).

Copper Development Association. Copper Facts (2003). http://www.copper.org.

Fair, Ray C. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2002.

__“Econometrics and Presidential Elections.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives

(Summer 2003): 89-102.

Hess, Gregory D., and Mark E. Schweitzer. “Does Wage Inflation Cause Price Inflation?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Policy Discussion Paper, no. 1 (April 2000).

Wu, Tao. “Improving the Way We Measure Consumer Prices.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, no. 2003-24 (August 22, 2003).

Chapter 11: Confidence and Sentiment

Bram, Jason, and Sydney Ludvigson. “Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review (June 1998): 59-78.

Carroll, Christopher D., Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, and David W Wilcox. “Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?” The American Economic Review 84, no. 5 (December 1994): 1397-1408.

Conference Board. Consumer Confidence Survey. New York: Conference Board (various issues).

Curtin, Richard T. “Indicators of Consumer Behavior: The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.” Public Opinion Quarterly 46 (1982): 340-352.

__“Index Calculations.” University of Michigan. Mimeo.

__“Surveys of Consumers.” University of Michigan. Mimeo.

Garner, C. Alan. “Forecasting Consumer Spending: Should Economists Pay Attention to Consumer Confidence Surveys?” Federal Reserve BankofKansas City, Economic Review (May 1991): 57-71.

Katona, George. The Powerful Consumer. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1960.

_and Eva Mueller. ConsumerResponse to Income Increases. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1968.

Keynes, John Maynard. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1936.

Mishkin, Frederic S. “Consumer Sentiment and Spending on Durable Goods.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 (1978): 217-232.

Tobin, James. “On the Predictive Value of Consumer Intentions and Attitudes.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 41 (February 1959): 1 — 11.

University of Michigan. Surveys of Consumers. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Survey Research Center (various issues).

Chapter 12: The Federal Reserve

Aruoba, S. B., F. X. Diebold, and C. Scotti “Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 27, no. 4 (October 2009): 417—427.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Statistical Release. H.8 Selected Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States (various issues).

__Federal Reserve Statistical Release, G.19 Consumer Credit (various issues).

__Federal Reserve Statistical Release, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank

Lending Practices (various issues).

__Federal Reserve Statistical Release, Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States (various issues).

Bram, Jason, and Sydney Ludvigson. “Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review (June 1998): 59—78.

Brave, Scott, and Chenfei Lu. “A Snapshot of the Midwest Economy: Past and Present,” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed Letter, Number 280 (November 2010).

Deitz, Richard, and Charles Steindel. “The Predictive Abilities of the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey.” Current Issues in Economic and Finance 11, no. 1 (January 2005).

Dolmas, Jim. “A Fitter, Trimmer Core Inflation Measure,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Southwest Economy 3 (May/June 2005).

Haubrich, Joseph G., George Pennacchi, and Peter Ritchken. “Inflation Expectations, Real Rates, and Risk Premia: Evidence from Inflation Swaps.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 11-07 (2011).

Hobijn, Bart. “The Tech Pulse Index: Recent Trends in Tech-Sector Activity.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter (January 14, 2009).

Hobijn, Bart, Kevin J. Stiroh, and Alexis Antoniades. “Taking the Pulse of the Tech Sector: A Coincident Index of High-Tech Activity.” Current Issues in Economics and Finance 9, no. 10 (2003).

Lessons from the Tenth District,” Federal Reserve Bank ofKansas City, EconomicReview (Third Quarter 2004), 39-70.

Lacey, Robert L. “Gauging Manufacturing Activity: The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s Survey of Manufacturers.” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Quarterly 85, no. 1 (Winter 1999): 79-98.

Price, David A., and Aileen Watson. “The Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Service Sector Surveys: A User’s Guide,” The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Brief, No. 14-03 (March 2014).

Schiller, Timothy, and Michael Trebing., “Taking the Measure of Manufacturing,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Review (Fourth Quarter 2003): 23-37.

 
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