The Political Economy of Independent Ukraine: Slow Starts, False Starts, and a Last Chance?

Introduction and OverviewThree Constants in the History of UkraineAims of the BookA Potted History of the Economy since IndependenceOutline of the BookBibliographyNature of the Economy before IndependenceThe Early CenturiesThe Polish-Lithuanian and Cossack PeriodCzarist Colonial PeriodSoviet PeriodThe Historical Legacy upon IndependenceBibliographyII Post Independence Economic Reforms and Performance Main Trends over Twenty-Five Years: Delayed Reforms Lead to Poor PerformanceOverviewA Quarter Century of Post-communist TransitionThe Transition Story in a NutshellA Quarter Century of Transition in UkrainePolicy Inputs: Market Liberalization and Institution BuildingEvolution of Democracy and Personal FreedomsThe Outputs: Economic and Social PerformanceBut It Is Still Better than in the Soviet PeriodA SummaryBibliographyReforms and Performance under Kravchuk 1991-94Were There Any Reforms?Pre-independence: Tiny Steps to Economic AutonomyNation-Building Comes before Economic ReformsWhy Reforms Were DelayedSummary of Kravchuk Legacy: 'We Have What We Have'BibliographyReforms and Performance under Kuchma 1994-2004From Enthusiastic Reformer to Frustrated AuthoritarianKuchma I: 1994-98: A Small Bang?Kuchma II: 1999-2004: Oligarchic ConsolidationBeginning of Restructuring and GlobalizationWhy Did Kuchma Begin and then Stop Reforms?BibliographyReforms and Performance under Yushchenko: 2004-09Promises, Promises, PromisesThe Orange Revolution: First but Not Last Revolt of the DemosAbusiveness of RulersAn Empowered Civil SocietyPresence of Charismatic Democratic LeaderRussian InterventionismThe EU Is Aroused and Deeply InvolvedOrange Regime: Democracy Moves Forward, Economic Liberalization StallsThe Souring of the OrangeDisunity of DemocratsYushchenko, Poor ManagerPragmatist Yushchenko Compromised with EstablishmentPersonal AntipathyEU Refusal to Offer Membership CarrotFaults of the Orange Princess: Populist, Radical—or Female?Summary: Yushchenko's LegacyBibliographyReforms and Performance under Yanukovich: 2010-14A Juggling Act Marvellous to Behold, Disastrous When All the Pins FallConcentration of Authoritarian PowerMacroeconomic Policy Neither Disastrous Nor SuccessfulDe Minimis Microeconomic ReformsBusiness as Usual for Oligarchs—Even Better for the FamilyFirst, Satisfy the EU, and then Deal with Moscow PressureThe Vilnius DenouementWhy Did Yanukovich Refuse to Sign?Yanukovich's LegacyBibliographyReforms and Performance under Poroshenko. 2014-PresentLast Chance? Or Muddle through as UsualMacro Stabilization: So Far So GoodSignificant Deregulation: Too Much for the Establishment?Progress towards the EU: Slow but SteadyRule of Law Reforms: At Best on PaperCorruption Control: Words, Paper, but No SticksCould More Have Been Done?BibliographyIII The Key Political-Economy Challenges Since Independence The Costs of Delaying Economic ReformsA Thematic Overview of the Ukrainian EconomyThe Special Effects of Delayed ReformsReasons for DelayThe Sincerity and Political Ethics of Reform DelaySummaryBibliographyThe Formation and Role of OligarchsA Step towards the Market or a Barrier to Finishing Transition?Who Were the Oligarchs?How Did They Evolve?How Did (and Do) Oligarchs Use Their Power?Some Misconceptions and MythsSummaryBibliographyEconomic Dependence on RussiaA Triad of Rent-Seekers Promotes Economic DependenceEnergy Dependence until 2014Rent-Seeking and the Vicious Circle of Energy DependenceRussian Rent-Seekers Largely Aligned with State InterestsAttempts to Reform Gas Markets and Why They FailedDiversification FailuresOdessa-Brody Becomes Brody-OdessaRapid Globalization and DiversificationExport Performance: One of the Greatest Success StoriesMain Trends in Export Expansion and DiversificationHas Ukraine Reached Its Comparative Advantage Equilibrium?Economic Dependence on Russia: A Summing UpBibliographyControlling Corruption: The Elusive Golden Fleece?Corruption: Pervasive, Persistent and PerniciousInternational Comparisons of Corruption LevelsFour Types of Corruption with Innumerable MechanismsTools to Fight against CorruptionCan It Be Done, and Done Quickly?Some Hopeful SignsBibliographyEU Membership: The Quest for the Holy GrailTo Be European or Not to Be European?A Timeline of Ukraine-EU RelationsHow the EU Accession Process Anchored TransitionMissed Opportunities for Ukraine-EU RelationsPublic Opinion on Ukrainian Membership in the eURelative Benefits of EU Versus EACUSummaryBibliographyThe Outcome: Capitalism for the Few and Low Incomes for the ManyWhat Has Been Achieved since 1991?The Positives: It Is Better than in Soviet TimesThe Negatives: Reforms Too Late, Too little, Too SlowThe Persistent Effects of the Late StartWhy Ukraine Lagged Behind on ReformsMyths, Partial Truths and Revisionist InterpretationsThe Three Historical Constants EndureBibliographyProspects for Real Reforms After the Euromaidan VictoryProspects Are Diminishing, but Hope Dies LastProspects of Settling the Conflict with RussiaProspects of Economic RecoveryProspects of Continued EU IntegrationProspects of Further Deregulation and Rule of Law ReformsProspects of Real Progress on CorruptionProspects of a Third MaidanBibliographyBibliography
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