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The future of mobility





ForewordPrefaceThe RAND Transportation, Space, and Technology ProgramThe Institute for Mobility ResearchResearch QuestionMethodologyThe ScenariosScenario 1: The Great ResetScenario 2: Slowing but GrowingSlowing but GrowingThe Wild-Card ScenarioImplications for DecisionmakersConclusionsAcknowledgmentsStudy ObjectivesCreating the ScenariosSelect Influencing AreasElicit Projections on DescriptorsIntegrate into Scenario FrameworksProduce Scenario NarrativesDraw Consequences for Future MobilityCreate a Wild-Card ScenarioWhy the Scenarios MatterReport OrganizationTwo Past Trends in Influencing AreasDemographic TrendsTotal PopulationGeographic Distribution and UrbanizationCommute Distance and Household TypeEconomic TrendsEconomic Growth and Regional Economic SharesIncome Inequality and Labor-Force ParticipationDomestic Vehicle Industry and Transportation Infrastructure InvestmentsEnergy TrendsOil Price and ConsumptionIntroduction of Effective Greenhouse-Gas Emission-Reduction SystemsAdoption of Alternatively Fueled VehiclesTransportation Supply and Constraint TrendsConstraints on Driving and Vehicle OwnershipPublic Transit, Interurban Rail, and Domestic AirParking, Taxis and Car-Sharing, and Nonmotorized InfrastructureThree Key Drivers and Common ProjectionsKey DriversEconomic GrowthConstraints on Driving and on Vehicle OwnershipEnvironmental ConditionsCommon ProjectionsGeographic Distribution of PopulationUrbanizationIncome DistributionDomestic Vehicle ProductionGreenhouse-Gas Emission ControlsAutomobility Without OwnershipFour The ScenariosBackground to All ScenariosScenario 1: The Great ResetOverviewReforms Shift Growth from Government to Businesses and HouseholdsEnvironmental Improvements Help Reinforce the Government's LegitimacyPopulation and Internal Migration Continued to SlowEnergy Use Is Growing, but SlowlyCar Manufacturing Expands and Ownership RisesConstraints on Driving and Vehicle Ownership Spread WidelyThe Market for New-Energy Vehicles and Telematics GrewDemand for Long-Distance Travel Continues to SoarUse of Transit and Nonmotorized Modes Remains StrongOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadScenario 2: Slowing b ut GrowingOverviewA Financial Crisis Sparks Economic SlowdownReform Remains DifficultEnvironmental Problems Remain Incompletely AddressedThe Population Barely Grows, but Urbanization ContinuesEnergy Prices Remain LevelCar Manufacturing and Ownership Grow but Not RapidlyNew-Energy Vehicles and Vehicle Technologies Still Hold PromiseLong-Distance Travel Shows Slow, Steady Growth ...Along with Transit and Nonmotorized TravelOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadFive Wild-Card ScenarioDebt Comes DueOverleveraging Sparked a Financial CrisisGrowth Is SlowEnvironmental Problems FesterFlat-Lining Demand for Transportation Affects Some Modes More Than OthersSix Implications of the ScenariosImplications for Transportation PolicyEconomic GrowthConstraints on Car Ownership and DrivingEnvironmental ConditionsImplications for Transportation DecisionmakingIdentifying Leading IndicatorsDetermining Opportunities, Risks, and ContingenciesUtility of the Wild-Card ScenarioAppendix A MethodologyStep 1: Select Influencing AreasStep 2: Elicit Projections on DescriptorsStep 3: Integrate into Scenario FrameworksStep 4: Produce Scenario NarrativesStep 5: Draw Consequences for Future MobilityStep 6: Create Wild-Card ScenarioAppendix B List of Experts
 
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