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Home arrow Sociology arrow The future of mobility

A short course of lectures
«The future of mobility»





Appendix B List of ExpertsCommon ProjectionsTransportation Supply and Constraint TrendsElicit Projections on DescriptorsStep 1: Select Influencing AreasReport OrganizationStep 4: Produce Scenario NarrativesEnvironmental ConditionsThe RAND Transportation, Space, and Technology ProgramOil Price and ConsumptionIntegrate into Scenario FrameworksForewordProduce Scenario NarrativesOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadEnergy TrendsThree Key Drivers and Common ProjectionsConstraints on Driving and Vehicle OwnershipA Financial Crisis Sparks Economic SlowdownUse of Transit and Nonmotorized Modes Remains StrongAutomobility Without OwnershipFour The ScenariosStep 6: Create Wild-Card ScenarioStep 3: Integrate into Scenario FrameworksFlat-Lining Demand for Transportation Affects Some Modes More Than OthersAlong with Transit and Nonmotorized TravelConstraints on Car Ownership and DrivingUrbanizationStep 5: Draw Consequences for Future MobilityConstraints on Driving and on Vehicle OwnershipAdoption of Alternatively Fueled VehiclesAcknowledgmentsIncome DistributionGeographic Distribution of PopulationPrefaceOverviewDebt Comes DueFive Wild-Card ScenarioIdentifying Leading IndicatorsImplications for Transportation DecisionmakingLong-Distance Travel Shows Slow, Steady Growth ...Select Influencing AreasEnvironmental ConditionsConstraints on Driving and Vehicle Ownership Spread WidelyScenario 2: Slowing but GrowingEnvironmental Problems FesterImplications for DecisionmakersOverleveraging Sparked a Financial CrisisImplications for Transportation PolicyEnergy Prices Remain LevelThe Wild-Card ScenarioSlowing but GrowingEnergy Use Is Growing, but SlowlyEnvironmental Improvements Help Reinforce the Government's LegitimacyCreate a Wild-Card ScenarioReform Remains DifficultThe Institute for Mobility ResearchDomestic Vehicle Industry and Transportation Infrastructure InvestmentsEconomic GrowthEconomic TrendsScenario 1: The Great ResetEconomic Growth and Regional Economic SharesEconomic GrowthCar Manufacturing and Ownership Grow but Not RapidlyDemand for Long-Distance Travel Continues to SoarGrowth Is SlowScenario 1: The Great ResetWhy the Scenarios MatterPublic Transit, Interurban Rail, and Domestic AirDetermining Opportunities, Risks, and ContingenciesUtility of the Wild-Card ScenarioIncome Inequality and Labor-Force ParticipationAppendix A MethodologyTwo Past Trends in Influencing AreasOverviewCar Manufacturing Expands and Ownership RisesBackground to All ScenariosReforms Shift Growth from Government to Businesses and HouseholdsDraw Consequences for Future MobilityStep 2: Elicit Projections on DescriptorsParking, Taxis and Car-Sharing, and Nonmotorized InfrastructureEnvironmental Problems Remain Incompletely AddressedThe Population Barely Grows, but Urbanization ContinuesSix Implications of the ScenariosGeographic Distribution and UrbanizationNew-Energy Vehicles and Vehicle Technologies Still Hold PromiseKey DriversPopulation and Internal Migration Continued to SlowThe Market for New-Energy Vehicles and Telematics GrewDemographic TrendsCreating the ScenariosDomestic Vehicle ProductionGreenhouse-Gas Emission ControlsThe ScenariosCommute Distance and Household TypeScenario 2: Slowing b ut GrowingOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadTotal Population
 
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