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Home arrow Sociology arrow The future of mobility

A short course of lectures
«The future of mobility»





A Financial Crisis Sparks Economic SlowdownAlong with Transit and Nonmotorized TravelDraw Consequences for Future MobilityThe Wild-Card ScenarioOverleveraging Sparked a Financial CrisisThe ScenariosEconomic GrowthEnvironmental Problems Remain Incompletely AddressedBackground to All ScenariosTransportation Supply and Constraint TrendsEconomic Growth and Regional Economic SharesReforms Shift Growth from Government to Businesses and HouseholdsConstraints on Driving and on Vehicle OwnershipEnergy Prices Remain LevelCar Manufacturing and Ownership Grow but Not RapidlyStep 6: Create Wild-Card ScenarioTotal PopulationDemographic TrendsThe Institute for Mobility ResearchEnvironmental ConditionsTwo Past Trends in Influencing AreasPopulation and Internal Migration Continued to SlowUse of Transit and Nonmotorized Modes Remains StrongPrefaceCar Manufacturing Expands and Ownership RisesConstraints on Driving and Vehicle Ownership Spread WidelyStep 2: Elicit Projections on DescriptorsImplications for Transportation PolicyFive Wild-Card ScenarioGreenhouse-Gas Emission ControlsParking, Taxis and Car-Sharing, and Nonmotorized InfrastructureThe Population Barely Grows, but Urbanization ContinuesDomestic Vehicle Industry and Transportation Infrastructure InvestmentsStep 1: Select Influencing AreasProduce Scenario NarrativesDemand for Long-Distance Travel Continues to SoarIntegrate into Scenario FrameworksLong-Distance Travel Shows Slow, Steady Growth ...Report OrganizationGrowth Is SlowImplications for DecisionmakersAppendix B List of ExpertsScenario 2: Slowing but GrowingEnvironmental Problems FesterPublic Transit, Interurban Rail, and Domestic AirConstraints on Driving and Vehicle OwnershipSlowing but GrowingUrbanizationCreating the ScenariosCreate a Wild-Card ScenarioAppendix A MethodologyUtility of the Wild-Card ScenarioOil Price and ConsumptionOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadFlat-Lining Demand for Transportation Affects Some Modes More Than OthersGeographic Distribution and UrbanizationGeographic Distribution of PopulationWhy the Scenarios MatterFour The ScenariosStep 5: Draw Consequences for Future MobilityCommute Distance and Household TypeOpportunities and Challenges Lie AheadAutomobility Without OwnershipThe Market for New-Energy Vehicles and Telematics GrewCommon ProjectionsEnvironmental ConditionsEnergy TrendsScenario 1: The Great ResetThe RAND Transportation, Space, and Technology ProgramConstraints on Car Ownership and DrivingAcknowledgmentsIdentifying Leading IndicatorsEconomic GrowthStep 3: Integrate into Scenario FrameworksIncome Inequality and Labor-Force ParticipationReform Remains DifficultKey DriversOverviewStep 4: Produce Scenario NarrativesEconomic TrendsScenario 2: Slowing b ut GrowingOverviewThree Key Drivers and Common ProjectionsImplications for Transportation DecisionmakingNew-Energy Vehicles and Vehicle Technologies Still Hold PromiseElicit Projections on DescriptorsScenario 1: The Great ResetDetermining Opportunities, Risks, and ContingenciesSix Implications of the ScenariosDebt Comes DueForewordIncome DistributionAdoption of Alternatively Fueled VehiclesEnergy Use Is Growing, but SlowlyDomestic Vehicle ProductionEnvironmental Improvements Help Reinforce the Government's LegitimacySelect Influencing Areas
 
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