Brexit and the Belfast Agreement: Fragmenting a fragile political bargain

Introduction

Brexit is probably the most momentous event that has occurred in post-war UK history. Leaving the EU is likely to have far reaching economic and political implications for the UK. With the long-term future between the UK and EU still in the throes of complex negotiations, a great deal of uncertainty remains about the nature and extent of the fallout from Brexit. The time line from the Referendum vote in favour of withdrawal to actual departure was characterized by political turbulence in the UK. At the eye of the political storm about the way Brexit should be done - or whether it should be done at all - was a refashioned version of the ‘Irish Question' that has so bedevilled British politics for centuries. For the UK Referendum result to leave the EU once again opened Pandora’s Box on what should be the nature of relations between Ireland and the UK, the north and south of Ireland, Northern Ireland and the UK. and all three political entities.

Sharply contrasting views existed on the extent to which Brexit would impact on the carefully crafted multiple relationships that had been established by the Belfast Agreement over two decades (and more) involving Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the UK - and the degree to which new arrangements will have to be invented to address the fallout from Brexit. Equally strong disagreements existed about the degree to which Brexit would destabilize politics in Northern Ireland and the extent to which special arrangements are needed for Northern Ireland in the post-Brexit world. Some claimed Brexit cuts across both the spirit and letter of the Belfast Agreement and thus amounted to a grievous threat to political stability in the region (McCrudden 2017). Others argue that the destabilization thesis has been overplayed, if not concocted, mainly by nationalists hell bent on using Brexit to push for Irish unity. On this view, there is no good reason why Brexit should leave a negative imprint on politics in Northern Ireland (Gudgin and Bassett 2018).

This chapter assesses the likely political consequences to Northern Ireland of the UK leaving the EU. In terms of politics, it argues that Brexit is likely to have a profound impact not only on the internal politics of

Northern Ireland, but also on how the Belfast Agreement functions in the future. In particular, it suggests that Brexit simultaneously jeopardizes two key developments that emerged in the two decades after the Agreement. First of all, it weakens, seriously if not grievously, the political compromise that held together political stability inside Northern Ireland. Almost certainly, a new internal political accommodation will need constructing between unionism and nationalism if the recently reconvened regional government at Stormont is to remain functioning beyond the short term. Secondly, it destabilizes the nature of the north-south dimension that had taken shape over the previous two decades. As highlighted in Chapter 3, the Belfast Agreement more than anything else ushered a new era of trust and reconciliation between the two parts of the island based on the creation and maintenance of an open border. Brexit casts a long shadow over this model of north-south cooperation and it is an open question whether this regime can survive after the UK leaves the EU.

The chapter is organized as follows. The first section assesses how the Belfast Agreement should be understood politically. The following section explains how Strand 1 of the Agreement simultaneously gave rise to a nascent political bargain in Northern Ireland based on a peculiar combination of a ‘politics of deterrence’ coalition between the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein and an informal process of economic and social modernization. The next section argues that Brexit delivered a hammer blow to this emerging internal political bargain: although the deterrence coalition between nationalism and unionism was fraying it is argued that Brexit pushed Northern Ireland close to what is termed an Ulster war of attrition. The fourth section explains why the DUP's support for a hard Brexit was a high stakes gamble that went badly wrong, damaging in the process not only unionism, but also political stability in Northern Ireland. The penultimate section explains why the recently restored power-sharing institutions in Northern Ireland runs a high risk of being a zombie government. The conclusion offers some remarks about the political future of Northern Ireland in the wake of Brexit.