Demographic Dividend or a Demon
According to the census reports of Indian Census 2011, the population of India is 1.210,854.977 with 623,724,248 males and 586,469,174 females. During 2020, the India population is projected to increase by 17,466,075 people and reach 1.404,763,527 in the beginning of 2021. Fig. 5.1 indicates the state-wise population distribution in the country. The total literacy rate in the country at present is 74.04%. The density of population is 382 persons/sq.km. In regards to sex ratio, at present there are 940 females per 1,000 males and the child sex ratio is 914 females per 1,000 males.
As of 1 January 2020, the population of India was estimated to be 1,387,297,452 people. This is an increase of 1.26% (17,248,911 people) compared to population of 1,370,048,541 the year before. In 2019, the natural increase was positive, as the number of births exceeded the number of deaths by 17,810,631. Due to external migration, the population declined by 561,720. The sex ratio of the total population was 1,070 (1,070 males per 1,000 females) which is higher than the global sex ratio. The global sex ratio in the world was approximately 1,016 males to 1.000 females as of 2019.
Below are the key figures for the Indian population in 2019:
- • 27,962,691 live births
- • 10,152,060 deaths
- • Natural increase: 17,810,631 people
- • Net migration: 561,720 people
- • 717,105,446 males as of 31 December 2019
- • 670,192,006 females as of 31 December 2019
It is essential to mention that the changing demographic profile of India has laid a measurable impact on the crime occurrence and increase in the country.
FIGURE 5.1 Population Map of India, 2020.
Fig. 5.2 highlights the ranks of India’s most populous cities in the world as per the WHO, Annual Average 2016. Recently, the NCRB has provided crime data in two sets: one on the states of India and one on the 19 largest “metropolitan cities” exceeding 2 million in population. It would be appropriate to point out that while the NCRB provides statistics on urban agglomerations with populations above 2 million, some of them stand high on the demographic ladder and go right up to populations of 20 million and beyond. The five largest are Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, and Bengaluru.
FIGURE 5.2 Most Populous Cities of India (WHO. 2016).
Of the 19 urban agglomerations, three each fall within the states of Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh; two each in Gujarat, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu; and one each in Bihar. Delhi. Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan, Telangana, and West Bengal. For comparison, we have clubbed together six urban agglomerations (Delhi, Ghaziabad, Jaipur, Kanpur, Lucknow, and Patna) as northern urban agglomerations and six others (Bengaluru, Chennai, Coimbatore, Hyderabad, Kochi, and Kozhikode) as southern urban agglomerations.
In terms of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) crimes, Delhi’s rate of 1,306 (per lakh population) far exceeds any other urban agglomeration. Kochi. Patna, Jaipur, and Lucknow follow with crime rates of 809, 751, 683, and 600. The lowest crime rates with regard to IPC crimes are in Kolkata (141), Coimbatore (144), Hyderabad (187), Mumbai (212), and Chennai (221) (Fig. 5.3). The northern urban agglomerations in terms of IPC crime rates are about two times higher than southern urban agglomerations. In terms of fatal attacks that have resulted in deaths. Patna tops the list, with a crime rate of nine murders per lakh population. It is followed by Nagpur (8), and Indore, Jaipur, and Bengaluru (3 each). The lowest crime rates for murder are reported from Kozhikode, Kochi, Kolkata. Mumbai, and Hyderabad all clocking below one murder per lakh population. It is shocking to note that here the northern urban agglomerations have almost three times higher crime rates than the southern urban agglomerations.
As per Fig. 5.4, Delhi tops the crime rate chart for kidnappings and abductions with a rate of 32, followed by Indore (31), Patna (27), Lucknow (24), and Ghaziabad (23). The lowest crime rates are recorded by Coimbatore, Chennai, Kozhikode, Kochi, and Kolkata, all below' three. Here, the northern block has a crime rate seven times higher than the south. In regards to crimes against w'omen, Lucknow has the highest rate of 179, followed by Delhi (152), Indore (130), Jaipur (128), and Kanpur (118). The lowest rates are reported from Coimbatore (7), Chennai (15), Surat (28), Kolkata (29), and
FIGURE 5.3 Crime Rates in Major Cities in India, 2017.
Kozhikode (33). Here again, the northern urban agglomerations have recorded a crime rate three times higher than the southern urban agglomerations.
For crimes against children, Delhi ranks the first with a crime rate of 35, followed by Mumbai (19), Bengaluru (8), Pune (7), and Indore (4). The lowest rates are recorded by Coimbatore, Ghaziabad, Patna, Kochi, and Kozhikode, all below one. Senior citizens are the worst off in Mumbai with a crime rate of 30, followed by Delhi (20), Ahmedabad (14), Chennai (13), and Bengaluru (5). The best urban agglomerations for the old are Kanpur, Indore, Kozhikode, Ghaziabad. and Patna, all below one. Here, as an exception, the northern block emerges kinder to senior citizens than the southern.
Jaipur in Rajasthan emerges as the leading urban agglomerations in terms of economic offenses (141), followed by Lucknow (65), Bengaluru (41), Delhi (30), and Kanpur (26). Coimbatore, Chennai, Kozhikode, Patna, and Ahmedabad rank the lowest in economic offenses, all below ten. A factor of more than two separates the northern urban agglomerations from the less crime-prone southern urban agglomerations. As the information technology hub of India, Bengaluru, leads in cyber crimes (32), followed by Jaipur (22), Lucknow (21), Kanpur (8), and Mumbai (7).
Chennai. Kozhikode, Coimbatore, Delhi, and Kolkata are at the bottom of the list with crime rates lower than two. An analysis of all the above data reveals that Delhi, Jaipur, Lucknow, Indore, and Patna have the highest average crime rates across crime categories among top urban agglomerations of the country'. At the other end are Kozhikode, Coimbatore, Chennai. Kolkata, and Kochi with the lowest average crime rates among top urban agglomerations. It is generally acknowledged that cities have a greater propensity to crime and that megacities have a higher crime rate than smaller cities.
If the total crimes are taken into account, which includes those charged under the IPC and SLL (Special and Local Law's), New' Delhi (Capital City) tops the list of IPC
FIGURE 5.4 Crime Rate for Murder and Kidnapping and Abduction in Major Cities in India. 2017.
charged cases followed by Kochi and Patna whereas Kochi tops in Special and Local Laws (SLL) charged cases followed by Coimbatore and Surat (Fig. 5.3). New Delhi is way behind from Patna. Nagpur. Indore when it comes to murder rates. As per 2017 data on cognizable crime in major cities in India. Kochi leads with 2814 cases per 1 lakh population followed by Delhi (1375), Patna (1024) and Jaipur (970) (Fig. 5.5).
The drastic comparison between the demographic data and crime statistics reveal, that over 30% of youth between 15 and 29 years of age are idle, that is not in employment, education, or training providing them motivation and space for crime initiations. What, however, adds to this fuming chum is the 2011 Census finding that highlights 84 million literates and 33 million illiterates who are unemployed, and diploma holders are the highest among them. What is shocking then is the vagabond youth, with a piece of paper in their hands, that can’t promise them a job. Team Lease reports that only 18% of those vocationally trained find work, but only 7% of these in formal employment. If small towns, rather than metros (with the exception of New Delhi) are where criminal activities are high, one needs to also factor in the kind of urbanization India is going through. Under equal conditions, a non-tier 1 city applicant has a 24% lower chance of finding work and can expect a salary that is Rs 66.000 less per annum.
The National Sample Survey also shows that the chances of getting a salaried job, that is one with some security, are much higher in larger cities than in smaller ones. But as metropolises in India, such as New Delhi and Mumbai, are showing a declining growth rate and Kolkata and Chennai may well have become stagnant, good jobs are getting harder to land in these places. Under such conditions, most of the job opportunities lie with the big-city networks who have access to these better jobs, and those who don’t must, of necessity, go to smaller towns. In these smaller urban sites, the situation is different; jobs are not only more difficult to find they are
FIGURE 5.5 Rate of Recognizable Crime in Major Cities in India. 2017 (per 1 Lakh Population).
mostly informal and ill-paid ones. Consequently, towns such as Faridabad, Ghaziabad. Meerut, Patna, Pune. Jaipur, Kochi, Nagpur, Indore, and so on are not just getting bigger, but sickening too. This is because it is the literate unemployed who are largely circling this territory, searching for work and they have dreams much grander than what the unschooled can imagine. Unmet aspirations are socially more troublesome than empty stomachs.
Imagine what the atmosphere must be like when 15,000 graduates, in 2016, applied for the position of sweepers in Almroha, UP and when even this scaled down ambition fails, crime could easily become the default option. It is sad enough but true to mention, that what we are facing is not a demographic dividend but a “demographic demon.” It is not a coincidence that juvenile criminals, the only category on which the crime bureau provides socioeconomic information, are overwhelmingly kids who have been to high school. Literate people migrate much more than illiterates do. Statistics reveal that the migration rate among those at the lowest income bracket is much below those who are better placed. In rural India, only 3% of those in the bottom income decile migrate, compared to 17% of those in the top. When it comes to urban male migration alone, the rate at which college graduates enter cities is more than double that of the “illiterates.” If we try to connect the dots, we understand that the educated migrants move to small towns where well-paid jobs are rare and this leads to frustration, unsatisfactory behavior, and social anger which are fertile grounds for crime birth. Many researches have unveiled some astonishing facts such as places with high literacy rates, high human development index, and better standard of living have been registered for high crime rates in comparison to the rural setup in India.
Demographic characteristics and criminal behavior are intertwined in multiple ways at both the micro and macro levels. Another population characteristic that is
FIGURE 5.6 Rate of Crime Against Woman in Major Cities of India, 2017.
likely linked to aggregate crime rates is the sex ratio. In India, which has experienced a long-standing and likely worsening numerical deficit of girl counts, exploring the association between population sex composition and criminal victimization takes on special urgency. Prior studies of the impact of imbalanced sex ratios on crime, both in India and elsewhere, has generated equivocal findings.
Household level indicators of family structure, socioeconomic status, and caste as well as real indicators of women’s empowerment and collective efficacy also emerge as significant predictors of self-reported criminal victimization and the perceived harassment of young women (Scott et al„ 2014).
Although projecting trends in the above figure show crime against women indicate that criminal behavior is a risky undertaking, in India victimization rates are likely to increase along with the looming masculinization of the adult sex ratio. Researches indicate the observed associations between the sex ratio and criminal victimization risks are fairly modest; projected changes in the adult sex ratio are apt to increase annual odds of victimization risks by about 8% to 12% depending on the type of crime. At the same time, however, these seemingly small increases in annual risks may translate into at least moderate lifetime increases in victimization risk. With regard to the victimization of women, we find no support for the hypothesis, derived from Guttentag and Secord (1983), that men are less likely to harass women when women are relatively few in number. Rather, as with the other offenses, a numerical abundance of men and an attendant shortage of women tends to increase women’s risk of being harassed in public spaces, often referred to as eve-teasing. Of course, the gendered dynamics described by Guttentag and Secord (1983) could conceivably temper the effects of offender supply, but even if so, these dynamics appear insufficiently powerful or extensive to override the aggregate criminogenic risks created by a numerical surplus of males.
The national data on crime as released by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) indicates the crimes increase from 3,793 per million in 2016 to 3,886 per million in 2017, which means 100 more crimes took place per million people in 2017 compared to the previous year in India, though crimes such as murders and rapes have come down. (The NCRB comes under the Union Ministry’ of Home Affairs and is responsible for collecting and analyzing crime data as defined by the Indian Penal Code (IPC) and special and local laws in India).
A few states, in particular, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Rajasthan, and West Bengal showcased a decrease in crime rates, but most others continue to see a rise in crime occurrences. Incidents of theft have increased at the fastest rate. In Delhi, the crime rate rose by 8% in a year and is the fastest rate of growth among all states in India and translates to 11,500 crimes reported per million. Nearly 3 million Indian Penal Code (IPC) crimes and 2 million crimes under state laws were recorded in 2017. But even this report says, it is an understatement. “The actual count of each crime per head may be underreported. This is because, among many offenses registered in a single FIR, only the most heinous crime (maximum punishment) will be considered as a counting unit, ” the report notes.
The report says incidence of rioting reduced from 53 crimes per million people in 2014 to 46 per million people in 2017. Incidence of kidnapping and abduction, on the other hand, rose from 62 per million to 74 per million. Crime rate under state laws that pertain mostly to prohibition, narcotics, excise, electricity-related ones, and gambling rose faster than crimes under the Indian Penal Code (IPC). IPC crime incidence also rose, with crimes such as kidnapping and attempt to murder on the rise, per million population. While the incidence of rapes has reduced, the overall crime rates against women continues to rise. Cases of rapes reduced from 63 per million people in 2016, to 52 per million in 2017, but a total of 3.5 lakh cases of crime against women w'ere registered; these include murder, rape, dowry death, suicide abetment, acid attack, cruelty against women, and kidnapping, etc.
Based on the NCRB data, the highest number of cases were registered in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populated state (56,011). Maharashtra is a close second with 31,979 cases, followed by 30,992 in West Bengal, 29,778 in Madhya Pradesh, 25,993 in Rajasthan, and 23,082 in Assam. In Delhi, according to the NCRB report, 13,076 FIRs were registered in 2017, which is a decrease from 15,310 in 2016 and 17,222 in 2015. A ray of light comes from the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura where the registered crimes against women are only in three digits. This is not even 1% of all India. Similar trends can be noticed in the Union Territories, such as Chandigarh registered 453 cases, followed by 132 in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, 147 in Puducherry, 26 in Daman and Diu, 20 in Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and only 6 in the island territory of Lakshadweep. These figures from the data make one thing evident that one-half of the population continues to suffer disproportionately and faces the majority of the crimes committed. Women of all ages, religion, and caste continue to be the victims of sexual violence and heinous offenses ranging from rape, kidnapping, dowry-related deaths, physical and sexual assault to harassment at workplaces, abetment of suicide, and indecent representation of women in digital and print media.
These crimes act as barriers to their empowerment and self-respect in terms of gender. This puts a constant constraint on individual and societal welfare and has heavy social and economic costs. According to the World Bank report of 2018, violence against women is estimated to cost countries up to 3.7% of their GDP. It is an alarming figure as this amount is more than double of what most governments spend on education. Both the center as well as the state governments need to ensure that laws are enforced and perpetrators of physical, mental, or sexual violence do not remain unpunished. We also need more women representatives in the government. The presence of women stakeholders at all government levels leads to a better representation of their concerns in policymaking; it is also likely to lead to higher economic growth. The NCRB data is important because it highlights that the safety of women should continue to be an area of concern for the government. Various multipronged strategies, be it anti-discrimination and gender-based violence legislation, gender awareness campaigns, taking the recourse of judiciary, increasing system accountability, social perception, digital consciousness, strict action against child pornography, safe transport, hostels, safe roads and gender sensitization training, counseling, surveillance and increased crime- control policing, and such safe city programs may lead to lowering of the crime rates against women in society. On a positive note, some of the recent legislative, policy, and development measures laid by the current government have statistically improved law's and toughened transparency, and the effects can be seen in the little progress we are seeing in terms of reduction in the rate of crimes against w'omen.
