Analyzing the Macroenvironment

By learning to spot and analyze trends in the macro environment, marketers can identify new market opportunities. A trend is a direction or sequence of events with momentum and durability, revealing the shape of the future. A fad is a craze that is unpredictable, of brief duration, and

TABLE 3.3 Sales Forecast Methods


Forecast Method	Description	Use
Survey of buyers’ intentions	Survey customers about purchase probability, present and future finances, and expectations about the economy.	To estimate demand for industrial products, consumer durables, purchases requiring advance planning, and new products.
Composite of sales force opinions	Ask sales representatives to estimate their future sales.	To understand developing trends and gather detailed estimates by product, territory, customer, and sales rep.
Expert opinion	Obtain forecasts from experts, including dealers, distributors, suppliers, consultants, and trade associations, or buy from economic-forecasting firms.	To gather estimates from knowledgeable specialists who may offer insights.
Past-sales analysis	Use time-series analysis, exponential smoothing, statistical demand analysis, or econometric analysis to assess past sales as the basis of sales forecasts.	To project future demand based on analyses of past demand.
Market-test method	Conduct a direct-market test to understand customer response and estimate future sales.	To forecast sales of new products or sales of an established product in a new channel or area.

without long-term significance. A company can cash in on a fad, but getting it right requires luck and good timing. Marketing research and demand analyses are, as discussed earlier, necessary to determine the profit potential of new market opportunities based on macroenvironmental trends.