Examination of NDCs and action taken to date

A number of NDCs pledge economy-wide emission reductions, e.g. the NDCs submitted by the US, EU, Canada, South Korea and Russia, which, without a clear statement to the contrary, should be taken to include international aviation and shipping emissions. A number of other major NDCs refer to a reduction in emissions per GDP — a ‘GDP carbon intensity’ target. In this type of target, states commit to reducing emissions per GDP output. Such targets are included in the NDCs of China and India, among others. International aviation and shipping are part of a party’s GDP and are therefore, implicitly, included in the carbon intensity NDC commitment. Excluding emissions from these sectors from NDCs would give a distorted view of a party’s progress on reducing its GDP/carbon intensity.

Including these emissions in NDCs is also a recognition that a good part of the activity which can be taken to mitigate emissions from these sectors needs to be taken at a national level. The list of possible national actions is extensive and ranges from fuel taxation and other taxation - e.g. sales tax, removal of subsidies — state aid, passenger taxes, levies, emissions trading and other measures, a moratorium on airport capacity expansion, R&D, mandates for alternative fuels, and aircraft. States can also agree on a bilateral/multilateral basis to remove existing exemptions on taxing aviation fuel or ports can institute such schemes as port discounts and/or mandates for zero emission vessels (ZEVs), CO,/air pollution charges, virtual arrival and slow steaming. Many states are already adopting such measures: for example, differentiating port charges to reward more efficient ships, or adopting transparent monitoring and reporting rules for ships, or even mandating zero emission vessels (ZEVs) for specific routes or environmentally sensitive areas. Many parties are also rationalising their airspace in order to improve operational efficiency, or putting money into researching alternative fuels and better aircraft design.

Many of the activities undertaken by states affect both domestic and international emissions. For example China’s 13th Five Year Plan (2016-2020) calls for operational efficiency improvements, reduction in carbon intensity per passenger/km and the uptake of alternative fuels. If successfully implemented, such policies will impact both domestic and international emissions, and it is necessary that these emissions and the related actions are explicitly recognised and included in NDCs if there is to be an accurate accounting of progress towards the Paris goals.The United States and the EU, for example, have similar approaches to aviation, supporting alternative fuel development and modernising/ rationalising airspace management systems, which if successful may reduce emissions from international aviation.

Where parties do take action, it is also both appropriate and essential that they are able to claim credit for the resulting emission reductions. Otherwise, an incentive to reduce these emissions would be removed. Conversely, excluding these emissions could see parties allow these emissions to expand uncontrolled, with no implications for their national climate efforts. Such an outcome would be inconsistent with the aims of the PA.